In Epistemology and Psychology of Human Judgment [1] the authors recommend a similar approach: 1) Make a point estimate 2) Imagine that you're wrong (what dire

In Epistemology and Psychology of Human Judgment [1] the authors recommend a similar approach: 1) Make a point estimate 2) Imagine that you're wrong (what direction are you wrong?) 3) Make a second point estimate 4) Average the two Excellent advice from an excellent book! [1] https://www.amazon.com/Epistemology-Psychology-Judgment-Michael-Bishop/dp/0195162307 https://www.amazon.com/Epistemology-Psychology-Judgment-Mich...