3 ms·
There's an assumption here that you're sampling an ergodic process.[1] 'All tanks the Germans have built so far' satisfies this assumption (assuming equal likel
by beefman 7y ago
There's an assumption here that you're sampling an ergodic process.[1] 'All tanks the Germans have built so far' satisfies this assumption (assuming equal likelihood of capture). 'All tanks the Germans will ever build' doesn't. In other words, you can't sample the 200Bth human because they haven't been born yet, and this isn't evidence they will never be born.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stationary_ergodic_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stationary_ergodic_process
- AstralStorm 7y agoIt can be limit process though, like a sigmoid, that eventually becomes stationary. That is a big assumption though. Evolution was punctuated by such seeming stable domains only to reset everything once conditions changed... Or push past previously known barriers. This including technical progress early in human history. The population function over long time is not exactly smooth either.