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> The issue is simply that accurate estimation cannot be done for complex projects I do not think so. There are plenty of previous examples with enough similar
by ptero 7y ago
> The issue is simply that accurate estimation cannot be done for complex projects
I do not think so. There are plenty of previous examples with enough similarities to estimate costs to +/- 20% at most, usually better.
A bigger problem may be that quoting wildly optimistic price is more likely to get a public project started, even though most parties understand that the actual budget and time will be very different. But as long as the project takes a long time those who gave original estimates / started execution have plenty of chances to move away. And then "well, when I was running it, things were different" is a decent defense.
- repolfx 7y agoMaybe I should have said "cannot be done reliably". Even a very inaccurate and bad estimation process will yield correct estimates at least occasionally - stopped clocks and all that. But estimate-driven budget allocation is hardly useful if the result is wrong 50% of the time, and to me it feels like it's at least that unreliable. Although this story focuses on Germany, look at CrossRail in the UK for another pertinent example. It was "on time and on budget" right up until a few months before launch, when it suddenly wasn't on time or on budget anymore, and in fact, after churning through some CEOs, eventually they got one willing to admit the truth - that nobody knew how long it would take to complete. But by then they had started shutting down the project, e.g. by laying off their entire internal and external communications team. It'd have been far more effective if they'd admitted up front they didn't know exactly how long it'd take.