4 ms·

There's a mini ice age coming, says man who beats weather experts

21 points by billswift 16y ago

ceejayoz 16y ago
There's a lot of "seems to beat" statements in this editorial. If he's beating them with any sort of statistical significance, it should be pretty easy to demonstrate. edit: His Wikipedia page paints a different story. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn > Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them.
- dansingerman 16y ago
  Sadly, "statistical significance" is a concept you will very rarely hear of in mainstream newspapers. Hyperbole and sensationalism rule there.
arethuza 16y ago
I saw this link on a Scottish skiing site - it predicts 50 years of severe winters for the UK and Europe based on solar activity: http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/newsandevents/releases/pr325639.aspx http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/newsandevents/releases/pr3256...
ojbyrne 16y ago
This is actually one of the potential scenarios predicted by global warming theorists - namely the shutting down of the gulf stream, resulting in European weather changing rapidly to what would be expected at their high latitudes: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10046 http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10...
- Retric 16y ago
  There was even a reasonably high budget movie made about it, The Day After Tomorrow, not that it showed anything approaching a realistic depiction of the results of that shutdown.
  - billswift 16y ago
    The weather effects in The Day After Tomorrow were ripped off from the 1979 novel The Sixth Winter by Douglas Orgill and John Gribbin. Specifically, the super-cold storm centers were an "expanded for video" version of the "Ice Dancer" storms from the novel; they are unique enough in my rather extensive reading that I noticed the similarity immediately. (For that matter, the same director's later movie, 2012, borrowed rather strongly from Don Pendleton's 1969 novel Cataclysm, though from the credits that may have been indirectly.)
J3L2404 16y ago
See also: The Triple Crown of Global Cooling: More Volcanic Activity, Lower Solar Output and La Nina http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-in-orlando/triple-crown-of-global-cooling-could-pose-serious-threat-to-humanity http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-i...
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
marknutter 16y ago
Is it just me or could this article have been just as effective as 3 sentences?
jsharpe 16y ago
The connection between his successful prediction of current weather and his attempted predictions of global weather patterns 25 years out seems unfounded (at least in the article). His technique of comparing the Sun's behaviour with previous years might work for current weather, but just because that may be successful doesn't mean that he can be trusted when making a prediction completely outside that particular area. The difference between having a successful method for predicting this month's weather is predicting this century's weather is ridiculously huge.
maeon3 16y ago
Global warming? Ice Age? I'm so confused. Is the world going to get warmer or colder? It's as if someone is trying to scare me out of my money so they can get rich! oh snap!
- chrisbennet 16y ago
  The theory: Warming -> artic ice melts -> reduces salinity of north atlantic -> stops "atlantic conveyer" (which bring warm water from southern hemisphere) -> mini ice age for Europe at least. "The latest climate models predict the overturning circulation will slow down as greenhouse gases warm the planet and melting ice adds freshwater to the ocean. "Warm, freshwater is lighter and sinks less readily than cold, salty water," Willis explained. For now, however, there are no signs of a slowdown in the circulation. "The changes we're seeing in overturning strength are probably part of a natural cycle," said Willis. "The slight increase in overturning since 1993 coincides with a decades-long natural pattern of Atlantic heating and cooling." " http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.h...
joh6nn 16y ago
Why should we believe a guy who beats weather experts? Violence is no indicator of trustworthiness.

21 points by billswift 16y ago

There's a lot of "seems to beat" statements in this editorial. If he's beating them with any sort of statistical significance, it should be pretty easy to demonstrate. edit: His Wikipedia page paints a different story. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn > Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them.

dansingerman 16y ago
Sadly, "statistical significance" is a concept you will very rarely hear of in mainstream newspapers. Hyperbole and sensationalism rule there.

arethuza 16y ago

I saw this link on a Scottish skiing site - it predicts 50 years of severe winters for the UK and Europe based on solar activity: http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/newsandevents/releases/pr325639.aspx http://www.reading.ac.uk/about/newsandevents/releases/pr3256...

ojbyrne 16y ago

This is actually one of the potential scenarios predicted by global warming theorists - namely the shutting down of the gulf stream, resulting in European weather changing rapidly to what would be expected at their high latitudes: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10046 http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10...

Retric 16y ago
There was even a reasonably high budget movie made about it, The Day After Tomorrow, not that it showed anything approaching a realistic depiction of the results of that shutdown.
- billswift 16y ago
  The weather effects in The Day After Tomorrow were ripped off from the 1979 novel The Sixth Winter by Douglas Orgill and John Gribbin. Specifically, the super-cold storm centers were an "expanded for video" version of the "Ice Dancer" storms from the novel; they are unique enough in my rather extensive reading that I noticed the similarity immediately. (For that matter, the same director's later movie, 2012, borrowed rather strongly from Don Pendleton's 1969 novel Cataclysm, though from the credits that may have been indirectly.)

J3L2404 16y ago

See also: The Triple Crown of Global Cooling: More Volcanic Activity, Lower Solar Output and La Nina http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-in-orlando/triple-crown-of-global-cooling-could-pose-serious-threat-to-humanity http://www.examiner.com/seminole-county-environmental-news-i...

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

marknutter 16y ago

Is it just me or could this article have been just as effective as 3 sentences?

jsharpe 16y ago

The connection between his successful prediction of current weather and his attempted predictions of global weather patterns 25 years out seems unfounded (at least in the article). His technique of comparing the Sun's behaviour with previous years might work for current weather, but just because that may be successful doesn't mean that he can be trusted when making a prediction completely outside that particular area. The difference between having a successful method for predicting this month's weather is predicting this century's weather is ridiculously huge.

maeon3 16y ago

Global warming? Ice Age? I'm so confused. Is the world going to get warmer or colder? It's as if someone is trying to scare me out of my money so they can get rich! oh snap!

chrisbennet 16y ago
The theory: Warming -> artic ice melts -> reduces salinity of north atlantic -> stops "atlantic conveyer" (which bring warm water from southern hemisphere) -> mini ice age for Europe at least. "The latest climate models predict the overturning circulation will slow down as greenhouse gases warm the planet and melting ice adds freshwater to the ocean. "Warm, freshwater is lighter and sinks less readily than cold, salty water," Willis explained. For now, however, there are no signs of a slowdown in the circulation. "The changes we're seeing in overturning strength are probably part of a natural cycle," said Willis. "The slight increase in overturning since 1993 coincides with a decades-long natural pattern of Atlantic heating and cooling." " http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.h...

joh6nn 16y ago

Why should we believe a guy who beats weather experts? Violence is no indicator of trustworthiness.