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I believe you are over-simplifying a very complicated argument, although perhaps HN is not the place for the full argument. When I was young, I lived in nightl
by pwinnski 7y ago
I believe you are over-simplifying a very complicated argument, although perhaps HN is not the place for the full argument.
When I was young, I lived in nightly fear of China. I lived on a military base in the 1980s, and read conspiratorialist material my parents had in the house. One of my greatest fears was China's army of hundreds of millions of men. Today I don't fear China. I have a ten-year tourist visa for China and will be heading to Hong Kong next week.
I believe the difference is economic engagement. The economic interests of both America and China are too entangled now to imagine a military war between the two countries.
So on the one extreme is sanctions a la Iran or North Korea, and on the other extreme is the full unlimited economic engagement we have now. If the choices are that stark, I choose engagement every time.
The choice isn't that stark, though. One can still engage but with limits and conditions, right? It seems likely that even if Apple completely withdrew all manufacturing from China, or with even more difficulty and expense, completely withdrew all supply of raw materials, there would still be enough economic engagement between China and other companies to make open hostility unpalatable. But Apple is definitely one of the bigger companies doing business there, and they would have lost any influence there at all.
Right now Apple can say they've brought the standard of living for employees of factories which build Apple gear up quite a bit. Not to western standards, obviously, but far, far higher than they were. If Apple leaves, do those changes remain? Or do the standards drop back down to pre-Apple levels, sending people back into poverty and hardship? I don't know, do you?
Where would Apple send manufacturing next? They were producing the Mac Pro in the US, which I think is one of the largest reasons that platform has stagnated for years now. Do you have a suggestion of another country that provides the resources Apple needs while also providing a standard of living for every citizen that satisfies you? I mean, does the standard of living for every citizen of the US satisfy you?
Anyway, it's a complicated issue, and I'm not arguing that Apple shouldn't continue to do more, but I think disengagement is not the right move here, for Apple, for Chinese citizens, for anyone.
- carapace 7y ago> Today I don't fear China. I have a ten-year tourist visa for China and will be heading to Hong Kong next week. Hong Kong was just the site of a million people protesting because they were afraid of China. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/11/why-are-there-massive-protests-hong-kong/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/11/why-are-t...
- tomp 7y agoand winning
- ngcc_hk 7y agoNot sure we have. The chief executive just ignore the 1 then 2m walk due to the support of chinese comunust regime. China is strong and cohesive enough the world should be afraid. Raising economically but totalitarian politically justify a strong arm and nasty approach. And any people struggled would be jailed. (Last noble prize winner plus nearly all human rights lawyers.) Be afraid. If you don’t you are playing fire with your children’s life. Macau -> HK -> Taiwan once done it will expand to asia. Good luck to humanity.
- echaozh 7y agoIs Macau even with you on this protest? And where do you get the fantasy of democracy or freedom in HK before 1997? How old were you in 1997? HK may have been prosperous before 1997, but it doesn't mean it was democratic or free. Not ruled by China != democratic and free.
- hker 7y ago> And where do you get the fantasy of democracy or freedom in HK before 1997? Just to respond to the point about democracy in Hong Kong. It is written in the Basic Law (the constitution of Hong Kong) Article 45 that the Chief executive should be chosen by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee as an eventual goal. So to a certain extent the demand for democracy is based on the constitution.
- esmi 7y ago> I believe the difference is economic engagement. The economic interests of both America and China are too entangled now to imagine a military war between the two countries. This was a very popular argument before world war one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion It's true that World War One didn't disprove Angell's specific argument (war is economically and socially irrational) but economic interests don't prevent them either.