7 ms·

I believe this not only affecting the US. I still have not quite understood the deal around ARM, that will stop cooperating with Huawei. This is a UK based com

by seren 7y ago

I believe this not only affecting the US. I still have not quite understood the deal around ARM, that will stop cooperating with Huawei. This is a UK based company, owned by a Japanese conglomerate, Softbank, but they were still affected because they have a development center in Texas. The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ban or sanction), you should not incorporate any US tech, or have US development teams. This seems to be quite counterproductive from the US point of view, it means that investing in the US expose you to additional risks.

geogra4 7y ago
I think your last paragraph is very much missed by trump and his team.
- mistermann 7y ago
  I'm curious what your thinking is behind this. Ok, maybe you're a believer in the Trump's an idiot meme, fine, but do you actually think not a single person on Trump's trade team understands that trade wars are a high risk undertaking, that it might not be a complete cakewalk? Take Robert Lighthizer for example: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighthizer-trump-602657 https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighth... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robert-lighthizer-testifies-to-senate-about-trump-trade-agenda.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robert-lighthizer-test... I wouldn't for a moment think he doesn't understand the risks involved, so I would be very interested to know what your thinking is...perhaps you're aware of something I'm not? EDIT: I find the pattern of pattern of downvoting on political topics increasingly disappointing. The specific point of contention here is now whether this trade war strategy will turn out to be a wise move, or could have been executed in a more intelligent manner (I personally hold no certainty on either), it is whether: "The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ban or sanction), you should not incorporate any US tech, or have US development teams. This seems to be quite counterproductive from the US point of view, it means that investing in the US expose you to additional risks. " ...is very much missed by trump and his team. From a "pedantically" logical perspective, I would interpret a downvote as a belief that no one on Trump's team is able to understand or has not thought of this (and many other obvious) possible negative consequences. More likely I suspect I am reading way too much meaning into downvotes and the actual sentiment is something more casual along the lines of "you're just wrong", but the level of discourse, partisanship and epistemic humility on such topics, often accompanied by an air of intellectual superiority, seems to me like far less than what HN is capable of if we were able to set aside our understandable frustrations. If we can't discuss these topics in a non-tribal, evidence-based manner, then how does one hold the belief that the general public "should" do so? I should also note that I'm far from guilt-free on this matter, but I have been making a sincere effort to be more consistently objective in such discussions, and I would hope that is reflected in my words, provided one is able to set aside our differences in opinions.
  - mikekchar 7y ago
    Not the OP, and I would not have put it like the OP did, but I can't help but think of the tariffs put in place on memory chips back in the late 80s. In fact, I had to Google the date to make sure I got it right and in doing so, I noticed articles saying that Trump is comparing what he's doing with the tariffs that Regan put in place. Those tariffs had the effect of completely destroying the last of the US memory chip production. The parallels are kind of interesting. I actually have no good insight to add as I have no idea if the tariffs that Trump has put in place will have the desired effect. I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess. I think it's an area where even an expert can embarrass themselves by claiming that they can predict what will happen -- and I'm definitely no expert. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, though.
  - maypeacepreva1l 7y ago
    I am curious how you justify your position by looking at few members of the team. Trade is a complex issue and Trump single handedly is jeopardizing this sensitive topic by openly declaring trade wars with multiple nations in open platform like Twitter. Where were those members when that was and is still happening?
    - Fjolsvith 7y ago
      You are only seeing half of Trump's hand by looking at Twitter. Trump has a front channel which is Twitter (et. al.) and a back channel which you nor I am privy to. He uses both of these to achieve results. Also, assuming that Trump doesn't utilize advisers seems to be willful ignorance. Trump studies a topic in depth before making a decision, and he very much listens to experts in that study.
      - chunkyLafunga 7y ago
        really?????? Mr. I know more about.... (fill in the blanks)... than everyone else, listens to experts, give me a break.
        7y ago
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
OrgNet 7y ago
What if they decide to say that anyone selling to China is not allowed to sell to the USA?
Zenst 7y ago
Indeed, we already have a World in which large companies offshore their tax responsibilities. Will we see a rise in IP offshoring? Maybe.

by seren 7y ago

geogra4 7y ago

I think your last paragraph is very much missed by trump and his team.

mistermann 7y ago
I'm curious what your thinking is behind this. Ok, maybe you're a believer in the Trump's an idiot meme, fine, but do you actually think not a single person on Trump's trade team understands that trade wars are a high risk undertaking, that it might not be a complete cakewalk? Take Robert Lighthizer for example: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighthizer-trump-602657 https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighth... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robert-lighthizer-testifies-to-senate-about-trump-trade-agenda.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robert-lighthizer-test... I wouldn't for a moment think he doesn't understand the risks involved, so I would be very interested to know what your thinking is...perhaps you're aware of something I'm not? EDIT: I find the pattern of pattern of downvoting on political topics increasingly disappointing. The specific point of contention here is now whether this trade war strategy will turn out to be a wise move, or could have been executed in a more intelligent manner (I personally hold no certainty on either), it is whether: "The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ban or sanction), you should not incorporate any US tech, or have US development teams. This seems to be quite counterproductive from the US point of view, it means that investing in the US expose you to additional risks. " ...is very much missed by trump and his team. From a "pedantically" logical perspective, I would interpret a downvote as a belief that no one on Trump's team is able to understand or has not thought of this (and many other obvious) possible negative consequences. More likely I suspect I am reading way too much meaning into downvotes and the actual sentiment is something more casual along the lines of "you're just wrong", but the level of discourse, partisanship and epistemic humility on such topics, often accompanied by an air of intellectual superiority, seems to me like far less than what HN is capable of if we were able to set aside our understandable frustrations. If we can't discuss these topics in a non-tribal, evidence-based manner, then how does one hold the belief that the general public "should" do so? I should also note that I'm far from guilt-free on this matter, but I have been making a sincere effort to be more consistently objective in such discussions, and I would hope that is reflected in my words, provided one is able to set aside our differences in opinions.
- mikekchar 7y ago
  Not the OP, and I would not have put it like the OP did, but I can't help but think of the tariffs put in place on memory chips back in the late 80s. In fact, I had to Google the date to make sure I got it right and in doing so, I noticed articles saying that Trump is comparing what he's doing with the tariffs that Regan put in place. Those tariffs had the effect of completely destroying the last of the US memory chip production. The parallels are kind of interesting. I actually have no good insight to add as I have no idea if the tariffs that Trump has put in place will have the desired effect. I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess. I think it's an area where even an expert can embarrass themselves by claiming that they can predict what will happen -- and I'm definitely no expert. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, though.
- maypeacepreva1l 7y ago
  I am curious how you justify your position by looking at few members of the team. Trade is a complex issue and Trump single handedly is jeopardizing this sensitive topic by openly declaring trade wars with multiple nations in open platform like Twitter. Where were those members when that was and is still happening?
  - Fjolsvith 7y ago
    You are only seeing half of Trump's hand by looking at Twitter. Trump has a front channel which is Twitter (et. al.) and a back channel which you nor I am privy to. He uses both of these to achieve results. Also, assuming that Trump doesn't utilize advisers seems to be willful ignorance. Trump studies a topic in depth before making a decision, and he very much listens to experts in that study.
    - chunkyLafunga 7y ago
      really?????? Mr. I know more about.... (fill in the blanks)... than everyone else, listens to experts, give me a break.
      - 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

OrgNet 7y ago

What if they decide to say that anyone selling to China is not allowed to sell to the USA?

Zenst 7y ago

Indeed, we already have a World in which large companies offshore their tax responsibilities. Will we see a rise in IP offshoring? Maybe.