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I am pretty sure that China is going to take a temporary hit but in the end they will emerge stronger than ever. I think China will also redouble on their effo

I am pretty sure that China is going to take a temporary hit but in the end they will emerge stronger than ever. I think China will also redouble on their efforts to be full self-sufficient in all high tech areas, even if they have to open up for a sanction relief deal, their population will so favor local competitors, that it won't matter. China's rise will continue and dominant until their demographic bubble bursts and they turn into Japan when a falling population. I am curious if China can change course on its demographics in a way that Japan couldn't? Tech dominance is all but assured but if the demographics issue isn't resolved, they will clearly stagnant.

gambiting 7y ago
Yes, I'm curious what might happen if China gets to a level where they have the best tech, but are not interested in sharing it.
- yoz-y 7y ago
  It seems to be already happening in genetics research.
  - deugtniet 7y ago
    Really? How? What? Where? I honestly have no idea in what case / field the Chinese groups are miles ahead of anybody else in terms of genetics research. And I'm doing a PhD in the subject. There are excellent groups in all countries, but in terms of superior tech on any side, I have not seen any. There are great companies that facilitate genetics research, but the best tech in that case still is American (Illumina, Affymetrix, 10X genomics).
    - usmonopoly 7y ago
      > There are great companies that facilitate genetics research, but the best tech in that case still is American (Illumina, Affymetrix, 10X genomics). Company IP is up for theft, one way or the other. I think, that is not going to be an edge for long - given the amount of Capital China has amassed.
- sangnoir 7y ago
  Going by history[1], I'd guess that the "respect for IP" by the west might get a bit squishy, and become sacrosanct in China. 1. Hollywood's current stance on IP has reversed from when it was founded and actively undermining Edison's cinematography IP. Same goes for aircraft engineering in France in light of the Wright brothers patent war, and the inchoate American industry vs British IP.
  - zanny 7y ago
    IP is largely a tool of oppression. The only ones who can usually practically take advantage of it are incumbents with the financial capital to use the legal system as a weapon against competition. We see case after case of small time creator content being sued for having similar names or similar characters to some large media franchise and them being crushed under the weight of a hundred strong legal team from corporate regardless of what laws are actually applicable or not. Its government guaranteed monopoly for a reason, and has no real human good. It has economic good, for the companies that use it for extravagant profit (and presently that includes almost all top 10 companies due to the value of software IP). But that economic boon to a few investors in dominators of the global IP market costs all of humanity in spades of lost innovation and rent seeking for culture or technology decades old at this point. Perhaps a few independent artists or authors in the last century would have elected to not produce their masterwork without state monopolies on reproduction and distribution. But billions of dollars change hands every year as corporations buy one another for IP portfolios to sue one another and those small time creators who might have made a masterwork without the looming threat of weaponized corporate IP overshadowing entire industries. On the other side of the pond China has entire cities dedicated to tinkering, shopcraft, and the sharing of ideas and innovations because they don't have this heavy burden upon all their creative minds. Until now we could not see the flip side, the true costs of maintaining a regime of IP control overshadowing the economic realities of information and the human benefits of its liberation. China's government is a disgusting abomination of human rights abuse and genocide, but its people will hopefully show the working class of the world that there are alternatives to being under the creative boot of the wealthiest men on the planet.
  - jjwhitaker 7y ago
    Edison was ruthless about patents and their reach. There are many stories of him sending men to confiscate camera and film from early directors/film makers arguing he owned the content they created with "his" technology. He also personally claimed the patents for many technologies invented at his firm vs listing the actual inventor but keeping ownership and royalties to his firm like today. He was a titan of inventing for sure and fostered an environment where amazing things were created but would probably be considered incredibly toxic in today's world.
- adinobro 7y ago
  You don't have to wonder. It has already happened. They are currently the best at refining rare earth metals and they are not interested in sharing it. Have a look at the patent graph: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/3/21/viewpoint-china-solidifies-dominance-in-rare-earth-processing https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/3/21/v...
  - LMYahooTFY 7y ago
    That is not "the best tech", that's the best materials to make tech.
wrong_variable 7y ago
Tin Foil Level = Expert China is preparing to allow massive amount of immigration from neighboring Muslim countries. I have been following local news in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia. The Chinese leadership is well aware of their demographic cliff problem, this is why they relaxed their one child policy. A single generation ago they were freaking out about over population, so they are not anywhere near running out of people. The Muslim reeducation camps are trail runs for future policy to bring large numbers of Muslims living in proverty today into china, to work in their factories. This may be 20,30 years down the line though.
- selimthegrim 7y ago
  Exactly how is that doing for them with PR in those countries
- BOOSTERHIDROGEN 7y ago
  I’m curious, any references ?
leptoniscool 7y ago
Maybe they will invest in cloning technology
chunkyLafunga 7y ago
They are already leading in 5G technology, chinese companies are spending more in R and D, its only a matter of time that they will be able to wean them selves from buying/stealing tech.

gambiting 7y ago

Yes, I'm curious what might happen if China gets to a level where they have the best tech, but are not interested in sharing it.

yoz-y 7y ago
It seems to be already happening in genetics research.
- deugtniet 7y ago
  Really? How? What? Where? I honestly have no idea in what case / field the Chinese groups are miles ahead of anybody else in terms of genetics research. And I'm doing a PhD in the subject. There are excellent groups in all countries, but in terms of superior tech on any side, I have not seen any. There are great companies that facilitate genetics research, but the best tech in that case still is American (Illumina, Affymetrix, 10X genomics).
  - usmonopoly 7y ago
    > There are great companies that facilitate genetics research, but the best tech in that case still is American (Illumina, Affymetrix, 10X genomics). Company IP is up for theft, one way or the other. I think, that is not going to be an edge for long - given the amount of Capital China has amassed.
sangnoir 7y ago
Going by history[1], I'd guess that the "respect for IP" by the west might get a bit squishy, and become sacrosanct in China. 1. Hollywood's current stance on IP has reversed from when it was founded and actively undermining Edison's cinematography IP. Same goes for aircraft engineering in France in light of the Wright brothers patent war, and the inchoate American industry vs British IP.
- zanny 7y ago
  IP is largely a tool of oppression. The only ones who can usually practically take advantage of it are incumbents with the financial capital to use the legal system as a weapon against competition. We see case after case of small time creator content being sued for having similar names or similar characters to some large media franchise and them being crushed under the weight of a hundred strong legal team from corporate regardless of what laws are actually applicable or not. Its government guaranteed monopoly for a reason, and has no real human good. It has economic good, for the companies that use it for extravagant profit (and presently that includes almost all top 10 companies due to the value of software IP). But that economic boon to a few investors in dominators of the global IP market costs all of humanity in spades of lost innovation and rent seeking for culture or technology decades old at this point. Perhaps a few independent artists or authors in the last century would have elected to not produce their masterwork without state monopolies on reproduction and distribution. But billions of dollars change hands every year as corporations buy one another for IP portfolios to sue one another and those small time creators who might have made a masterwork without the looming threat of weaponized corporate IP overshadowing entire industries. On the other side of the pond China has entire cities dedicated to tinkering, shopcraft, and the sharing of ideas and innovations because they don't have this heavy burden upon all their creative minds. Until now we could not see the flip side, the true costs of maintaining a regime of IP control overshadowing the economic realities of information and the human benefits of its liberation. China's government is a disgusting abomination of human rights abuse and genocide, but its people will hopefully show the working class of the world that there are alternatives to being under the creative boot of the wealthiest men on the planet.
- jjwhitaker 7y ago
  Edison was ruthless about patents and their reach. There are many stories of him sending men to confiscate camera and film from early directors/film makers arguing he owned the content they created with "his" technology. He also personally claimed the patents for many technologies invented at his firm vs listing the actual inventor but keeping ownership and royalties to his firm like today. He was a titan of inventing for sure and fostered an environment where amazing things were created but would probably be considered incredibly toxic in today's world.
adinobro 7y ago
You don't have to wonder. It has already happened. They are currently the best at refining rare earth metals and they are not interested in sharing it. Have a look at the patent graph: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/3/21/viewpoint-china-solidifies-dominance-in-rare-earth-processing https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/3/21/v...
- LMYahooTFY 7y ago
  That is not "the best tech", that's the best materials to make tech.

wrong_variable 7y ago

Tin Foil Level = Expert China is preparing to allow massive amount of immigration from neighboring Muslim countries. I have been following local news in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia. The Chinese leadership is well aware of their demographic cliff problem, this is why they relaxed their one child policy. A single generation ago they were freaking out about over population, so they are not anywhere near running out of people. The Muslim reeducation camps are trail runs for future policy to bring large numbers of Muslims living in proverty today into china, to work in their factories. This may be 20,30 years down the line though.

selimthegrim 7y ago
Exactly how is that doing for them with PR in those countries
BOOSTERHIDROGEN 7y ago
I’m curious, any references ?

leptoniscool 7y ago

Maybe they will invest in cloning technology

chunkyLafunga 7y ago

They are already leading in 5G technology, chinese companies are spending more in R and D, its only a matter of time that they will be able to wean them selves from buying/stealing tech.