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> China's economy is fine even if HK struggles eh? That's an rare statement outside of china. From Michael Pettis: +++ Overinvestment – Its political and eco
by tempguy9999 7y ago
> China's economy is fine even if HK struggles
eh? That's an rare statement outside of china. From Michael Pettis:
+++
Overinvestment – Its political and economic systems are now dependent on elevated levels of investment spending. Moreover, a decreasing amount of those investment dollars are able to generate net-positive financial or social returns.
Currency undervaluation – Money printing and excessive foreign reserves are creating imbalances that will be very hard for the central authorities to unwind without painful repercussions.
Over-indebtedness & low interest rates – Much of China's new borrowing is used to pay interest on current debt. Any material rise in interest rates is sure to create a cascade of insolvencies.
Asset bubbles – Much of Chinese wealth is tied up in assets that are exhibiting dangerous levels of price inflation, real estate being a prime example. (Property prices in Beijing and Shanghai are higher than Manhattan, which is astounding considering the much lower average Chinese income)
+++
<https://www.peakprosperity.com/michael-pettis-the-future-of-china/> https://www.peakprosperity.com/michael-pettis-the-future-of-... which to be clear is from 2013 but I don't believe much has improved since (not an economist or china-watcher though)
- NeedMoreTea 7y agoPurely speaking comparatively to Hong Kong's economic size, not that China isn't at the peak of a bubble, or couldn't tip into deep recession. Are recessions even allowed in the Chinese system? Even the deepest depression wouldn't put the imbalance back to 1980s levels, and if it were that deep it would no doubt be causing crisis in HK and elsewhere too.