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I find it hard to believe that HK doesn't matter. Even leaving aside the city's economic importance, uncontrolled civil unrest carries the risk of an overthrow

by _cs2017_ 7y ago

I find it hard to believe that HK doesn't matter. Even leaving aside the city's economic importance, uncontrolled civil unrest carries the risk of an overthrow of the city government, leading to a rejection of the Chinese sovereignty. (Not to mention, it may also ignite pro-democracy activism in the rest of China.) Losing HK is unacceptable to Beijing, so if the HK unrest goes too far, it will have be quelled. Doing so without bloodshed may be impossible. Such an outcome would cause a dramatic escalation in the anti-Beijing sentiment in the Western world. Trump may not care much about what Beijing does in HK but the rest of the US political forces, on both sides of the aisle, do; the resulting sanctions would make Trump's trade war look like a friendly prank. Many other countries would join the US, dealing such a serious blow to the Chinese economy that it may cause domestic problems. In fact, things could get even worse. The outraged US politicians might send troops to Taiwan (which is likely to experience a major anti-Beijing shift, leading to fears of a Beijing military action). De-escalating such a confrontation could get very tricky indeed. Obviously, I hope none of this happens. My point is that, from the perspective of the Beijing leadership, mistakes in HK are very dangerous. So I highly doubt that they don't care.

NeedMoreTea 7y ago
> risk of an overthrow of the city government That's got to be a very slim chance. There's already Chinese troops in Hong Kong, and have been since handover. The change in tone was clear and noted in the handover ceremony itself. It's not going to be uncontrolled unrest. They already sent in riot police, tear gas and rubber bullets against not-rioting protesters. A real attempt to overthrow or coup would be quelled long before it was successful. So far more likely more riot police or a Tiananmen type event than a coup. To global outrage perhaps, but the West just kept on giving more trade and manufacturing after all the others. > it may also ignite pro-democracy activism in the rest of China That seems unlikely too, given how hard news of HK, some history and other activism is censored and firewalled in mainland China. I have no idea how much is "known" but not spoken of, nor how generally or what unofficial networks there are. Waking up sentiment in Taiwan would be the last thing they sought though, so it's a pretty clear misstep regardless of mainland. Logic and common sense isn't always prominent in international relations, as seen everywhere from Brexit to US and China. Decades of the West not caring two hoots, or even barely officially mentioning, what oversteps they are making in HK, Tibet or Xinjiang may have given president-for-life Xi the impression he can mostly do as he likes. South Africa got years of international sanctions, trade and sport embargoes, post-Tiananmen China got a few years of minor sanctions, then ever more Western manufacturing. The US barely kept sanctions up for two years. I'm not surprised Xi could end up thinking he gets near carte blanche. I'm more surprised you think we might sanction hard this time, when so much more depends on Chinese manufacturing, even if the president did prove willing. Yet as you say it could escalate far into unknown and globally damaging consequences if sentiment and confidence tips too far. So some people there are starting to talk of leaving again... We'll see.

NeedMoreTea 7y ago

> risk of an overthrow of the city government That's got to be a very slim chance. There's already Chinese troops in Hong Kong, and have been since handover. The change in tone was clear and noted in the handover ceremony itself. It's not going to be uncontrolled unrest. They already sent in riot police, tear gas and rubber bullets against not-rioting protesters. A real attempt to overthrow or coup would be quelled long before it was successful. So far more likely more riot police or a Tiananmen type event than a coup. To global outrage perhaps, but the West just kept on giving more trade and manufacturing after all the others. > it may also ignite pro-democracy activism in the rest of China That seems unlikely too, given how hard news of HK, some history and other activism is censored and firewalled in mainland China. I have no idea how much is "known" but not spoken of, nor how generally or what unofficial networks there are. Waking up sentiment in Taiwan would be the last thing they sought though, so it's a pretty clear misstep regardless of mainland. Logic and common sense isn't always prominent in international relations, as seen everywhere from Brexit to US and China. Decades of the West not caring two hoots, or even barely officially mentioning, what oversteps they are making in HK, Tibet or Xinjiang may have given president-for-life Xi the impression he can mostly do as he likes. South Africa got years of international sanctions, trade and sport embargoes, post-Tiananmen China got a few years of minor sanctions, then ever more Western manufacturing. The US barely kept sanctions up for two years. I'm not surprised Xi could end up thinking he gets near carte blanche. I'm more surprised you think we might sanction hard this time, when so much more depends on Chinese manufacturing, even if the president did prove willing. Yet as you say it could escalate far into unknown and globally damaging consequences if sentiment and confidence tips too far. So some people there are starting to talk of leaving again... We'll see.