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The author also omitted that China has no bleeding edge foundries (like TSMC & Samsung's 7nm fabs) and it is unlikely they will be able to build one any time so

The author also omitted that China has no bleeding edge foundries (like TSMC & Samsung's 7nm fabs) and it is unlikely they will be able to build one any time soon. Both Intel and Global Foundries are trapped on older nodes, and China is in a slightly worse position (with their most advanced node being 14nm). All of AMD's new cores are built on TSMC 7nm, and with outdated nodes & 3 revision old designs, China is unlikely to be able to significantly improve on the designs they licensed from AMD. Arguably, China doesn't have the homegrown talent to do chip design. Allwinner yeets barely altered SOC designs from ARM into existence, and Hygon's chip design talent is in large part not China based.

rwmj 7y ago
The Chinese govt is pouring huge amounts of resources into training homegrown chip designers. They're doing it based on RISC-V.
- microcolonel 7y ago
  > The Chinese govt is pouring huge amounts of resources into training homegrown chip designers. They're doing it based on RISC-V. Frankly both of those statements are true of all major industrial nations.
  - ulfw 7y ago
    France and Germany put huge amounts of money into training chip designers? Huh?
    - orbifold 7y ago
      Germany is investing 3 billion in deep learning accelerators and all the big automotive companies are investing large amounts aswell. They want to own the supply chain, just as they used to. There are even some army guys sitting in the negotiations (unusual for Germany).
      - AnonymousPlanet 7y ago
        Could you point us to some sources for that? I'm really curious
        lnsru 7y ago
        https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-intelligence/germany-plans-3-billion-in-ai-investment-government-paper-idUSKCN1NI1AP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-intelligence/germ... Though I don’t trust this. I guess, this money will be accessible only to companies having dedicated departments writing grants (like the big car companies) and it will be wasted at the end. This country should start immediately increasing salaries in research institutions and stop that nonsense with many many 1 year contracts for scientific staff.
    - cyberpunk 7y ago
      IFX are based in Germany, they employ a lot of people doing such work and definitely have a graduate programme..
  - zaphirplane 7y ago
    Name 3 governments that are pumping close to that
    - microcolonel 7y ago
      UC Berkeley receives hundreds of millions of dollars in funding from the U.S. Federal government, and some of that is certainly going to the BAR (and they are by far not the only ones). India is outright commissioning the research and design of at least four distinct RISC-V chips (SHAKTI) through IIT Madras. And (although the absolute amounts are smaller, the proportion is not really) many smaller countries through institutions like ETH Zürich are spending a lot of money on microarchitecture and IC design research, most with RISC-V involved. When it comes to IC design more broadly, just put in Google/DDG the name of an industrial nation and a couple other related words, and enjoy the results. I could think of more if it was my job, but I don't see why you'd dismiss it out of hand. Why would it be so personally important to you that the Chinese government is seen as greatest state sponsor of microarchitectural research using RISC-V?
- metildaa 7y ago
  China can train chip designers just like Israel does, but they are on a path to end up in Intel's predicament, where they don't have the ability to fabricate competitive chips as their foundries are one to two generations outdated.
  - Lammy 7y ago
    Who says China will let anybody else compete?
  - andy_ppp 7y ago
    I actually occationally worry about them invading Taiwan...
    - noir_lord 7y ago
      You and several major governments. Not a coincidence the US usually has a carrier battle group somewhere between the two. Cross straight relations is a definite hotspot, China (PRC) maintain Taiwan is still their territory. The US has traditionally sat as a buffer to prevent China asserting that militarily but with the US becoming more isolationist and the Chinese rapid expanding their blue fleet capabilities it's only a matter of time until things get...tense.
      - sho 7y ago
        > Not a coincidence the US usually has a carrier battle group somewhere between the two. The USA hasn't sent an aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait since 2007. Barring some major geopolitical shakeup, it is fairly likely it will never do so again.
      - tepidandroid 7y ago
        The PRC maintains Taiwan is part of their territory and the ROC maintains the mainland is part of theirs. The US has traditionally used Taiwan as yet another military foothold in the Asia-Pacific to project and exert its own influence in the region for geopolitical objectives, the containment of China being one of them.
kodz4 7y ago
What does node mean?
- metildaa 7y ago
  A node is the process a chip is built on. Smaller process = smaller circuits in your chips that use less power/run faster.
  - rob74 7y ago
    Yeah, at least "process" (as in manufacturing process) makes sense as a word, "node" is just pure jargon...
rb808 7y ago
> The author also omitted that China has no bleeding edge foundries (like TSMC & Samsung's 7nm fabs) Is that supposed to make Americans feel any better? :) Seriously the Chinese government still thinks of Taiwan (and on a bad day Korea) as one of its provinces and given its location it could easily become one again.
- ajross 7y ago
  So the reason China might win the trade war is that... they'll just start a world war? That seems a little out of scope. Yes, they might invade Taiwan. That would be rather worse for everyone than if they won/lost the race for CPU dominance.
  - ggg2 7y ago
    russia solved their oil supply problem anexing a neighboring country and no sign of a world war. why do you think china anexing taiwan would start one (also, remember china already sent a column of tanks there one nigth and again, nothing happened with the world) International apathy is at an all time high, thanks to most countries dealing with internal political issues (which in most cases involve rigth wing groups and fake news)
    - yorwba 7y ago
      > remember china already sent a column of tanks there one nigth Taiwan is an island. Sending a column of tanks there isn't something the PLA could just do overnight. They'd need to get a warship past Taiwan's naval and aerial defenses in the first place before they could even think of invading with tanks.
  - jjoonathan 7y ago
    It doesn't need to happen in a day. China has a gigantic spatial advantage here, and as their navy gets stronger and ours doesn't (or, worse, gets cannibalized and weakens), influence shifts. It's a good bet that as this trend continues Taiwan's choices will align more and more with Chinese interests and less and less with US interests.
sandworm101 7y ago
I wouldn't say they don't have the talent. Whether they do or not, they could get it very quickly. What is holding back Chinese foundries has more to do with legal architectures than human talent. A 7nm facility is a huge investment, takes years to develop, and is very location-specific. The few corporations capable of creating such a facility are hesitant to sink the required capital, energy and tradecraft into a facility in China. The long-term risks are too much for this very sensitive business.
- Proven 7y ago
  You're making a mistake in assuming that it has to be a commercially viable undertaking. It doesn't. They can unnecessarily spend an extra $10b on that shit and "recover" that extra money by simply forcing everyone to buy one (military, gov, state owned enterprises, and so on). It'd take just 2-3 years to make it "profitable".
pinkfoot 7y ago
> Arguably, China doesn't have the homegrown talent to do chip design Dear lord. 1. Patterson and Hennessy revolutionised CPU design with little more than grad students 2. ARM recounts how Western Digital's design bureau was little more than a suburban house 3. Apple merrily makes its own CPUs 4. China has already made more than one CPU - mainly MIPS. The good (or bad news) is we are all about to find out.
- kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
  > Apple merrily makes its own CPUs With the PA-RISC design team.
  - floatboth 7y ago
    The acquired team was P.A. Semi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P.A._Semi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P.A._Semi nothing to do with HP's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA-RISC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA-RISC

rwmj 7y ago

The Chinese govt is pouring huge amounts of resources into training homegrown chip designers. They're doing it based on RISC-V.

microcolonel 7y ago
> The Chinese govt is pouring huge amounts of resources into training homegrown chip designers. They're doing it based on RISC-V. Frankly both of those statements are true of all major industrial nations.
- ulfw 7y ago
  France and Germany put huge amounts of money into training chip designers? Huh?
  - orbifold 7y ago
    Germany is investing 3 billion in deep learning accelerators and all the big automotive companies are investing large amounts aswell. They want to own the supply chain, just as they used to. There are even some army guys sitting in the negotiations (unusual for Germany).
    - AnonymousPlanet 7y ago
      Could you point us to some sources for that? I'm really curious
      - lnsru 7y ago
        https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-intelligence/germany-plans-3-billion-in-ai-investment-government-paper-idUSKCN1NI1AP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-intelligence/germ... Though I don’t trust this. I guess, this money will be accessible only to companies having dedicated departments writing grants (like the big car companies) and it will be wasted at the end. This country should start immediately increasing salaries in research institutions and stop that nonsense with many many 1 year contracts for scientific staff.
  - cyberpunk 7y ago
    IFX are based in Germany, they employ a lot of people doing such work and definitely have a graduate programme..
- zaphirplane 7y ago
  Name 3 governments that are pumping close to that
  - microcolonel 7y ago
    UC Berkeley receives hundreds of millions of dollars in funding from the U.S. Federal government, and some of that is certainly going to the BAR (and they are by far not the only ones). India is outright commissioning the research and design of at least four distinct RISC-V chips (SHAKTI) through IIT Madras. And (although the absolute amounts are smaller, the proportion is not really) many smaller countries through institutions like ETH Zürich are spending a lot of money on microarchitecture and IC design research, most with RISC-V involved. When it comes to IC design more broadly, just put in Google/DDG the name of an industrial nation and a couple other related words, and enjoy the results. I could think of more if it was my job, but I don't see why you'd dismiss it out of hand. Why would it be so personally important to you that the Chinese government is seen as greatest state sponsor of microarchitectural research using RISC-V?
metildaa 7y ago
China can train chip designers just like Israel does, but they are on a path to end up in Intel's predicament, where they don't have the ability to fabricate competitive chips as their foundries are one to two generations outdated.
- Lammy 7y ago
  Who says China will let anybody else compete?
- andy_ppp 7y ago
  I actually occationally worry about them invading Taiwan...
  - noir_lord 7y ago
    You and several major governments. Not a coincidence the US usually has a carrier battle group somewhere between the two. Cross straight relations is a definite hotspot, China (PRC) maintain Taiwan is still their territory. The US has traditionally sat as a buffer to prevent China asserting that militarily but with the US becoming more isolationist and the Chinese rapid expanding their blue fleet capabilities it's only a matter of time until things get...tense.
    - sho 7y ago
      > Not a coincidence the US usually has a carrier battle group somewhere between the two. The USA hasn't sent an aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait since 2007. Barring some major geopolitical shakeup, it is fairly likely it will never do so again.
    - tepidandroid 7y ago
      The PRC maintains Taiwan is part of their territory and the ROC maintains the mainland is part of theirs. The US has traditionally used Taiwan as yet another military foothold in the Asia-Pacific to project and exert its own influence in the region for geopolitical objectives, the containment of China being one of them.

kodz4 7y ago

What does node mean?

metildaa 7y ago
A node is the process a chip is built on. Smaller process = smaller circuits in your chips that use less power/run faster.
- rob74 7y ago
  Yeah, at least "process" (as in manufacturing process) makes sense as a word, "node" is just pure jargon...

rb808 7y ago

> The author also omitted that China has no bleeding edge foundries (like TSMC & Samsung's 7nm fabs) Is that supposed to make Americans feel any better? :) Seriously the Chinese government still thinks of Taiwan (and on a bad day Korea) as one of its provinces and given its location it could easily become one again.

ajross 7y ago
So the reason China might win the trade war is that... they'll just start a world war? That seems a little out of scope. Yes, they might invade Taiwan. That would be rather worse for everyone than if they won/lost the race for CPU dominance.
- ggg2 7y ago
  russia solved their oil supply problem anexing a neighboring country and no sign of a world war. why do you think china anexing taiwan would start one (also, remember china already sent a column of tanks there one nigth and again, nothing happened with the world) International apathy is at an all time high, thanks to most countries dealing with internal political issues (which in most cases involve rigth wing groups and fake news)
  - yorwba 7y ago
    > remember china already sent a column of tanks there one nigth Taiwan is an island. Sending a column of tanks there isn't something the PLA could just do overnight. They'd need to get a warship past Taiwan's naval and aerial defenses in the first place before they could even think of invading with tanks.
- jjoonathan 7y ago
  It doesn't need to happen in a day. China has a gigantic spatial advantage here, and as their navy gets stronger and ours doesn't (or, worse, gets cannibalized and weakens), influence shifts. It's a good bet that as this trend continues Taiwan's choices will align more and more with Chinese interests and less and less with US interests.

sandworm101 7y ago

I wouldn't say they don't have the talent. Whether they do or not, they could get it very quickly. What is holding back Chinese foundries has more to do with legal architectures than human talent. A 7nm facility is a huge investment, takes years to develop, and is very location-specific. The few corporations capable of creating such a facility are hesitant to sink the required capital, energy and tradecraft into a facility in China. The long-term risks are too much for this very sensitive business.

Proven 7y ago
You're making a mistake in assuming that it has to be a commercially viable undertaking. It doesn't. They can unnecessarily spend an extra $10b on that shit and "recover" that extra money by simply forcing everyone to buy one (military, gov, state owned enterprises, and so on). It'd take just 2-3 years to make it "profitable".

pinkfoot 7y ago

> Arguably, China doesn't have the homegrown talent to do chip design Dear lord. 1. Patterson and Hennessy revolutionised CPU design with little more than grad students 2. ARM recounts how Western Digital's design bureau was little more than a suburban house 3. Apple merrily makes its own CPUs 4. China has already made more than one CPU - mainly MIPS. The good (or bad news) is we are all about to find out.

kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
> Apple merrily makes its own CPUs With the PA-RISC design team.
- floatboth 7y ago
  The acquired team was P.A. Semi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P.A._Semi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P.A._Semi nothing to do with HP's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA-RISC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA-RISC