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If the US government really wanted Snowden dead, they could get him dead. They very likely know where he lives. They are the most sophisticated intelligence col

by est31 7y ago

If the US government really wanted Snowden dead, they could get him dead. They very likely know where he lives. They are the most sophisticated intelligence collection entity in the world, after all. Snowden is not protected by secrecy, he is protected by the fact that he lives in Russia and killing him would be a provocation to Russia, possibly resulting in the assasination of people that Russia dislikes who are under US protection. Also I guess because they want to put Snowden before a court of some sort, even if it's an unfair trial. Now, why does he apply counterintelligence measures? Why doesn't he share his location on twitter all the time? My theory is that it's some kind of rule of the intelligence community: if you would be too open, you would basically insult the rules this world is playing by. It would be like dancing in the crosshair at the korean border. Nobody wants to be insulted.

otakucode 7y ago
>They are the most sophisticated intelligence collection entity in the world, after all. Who were caught completely off guard by the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the USSR, the Arab Spring, and basically every single geopolitical event in history. I wouldn't invest too much in their abilities.
- celticninja 7y ago
  Every single one is a bit harsh. There is also survivor bias here, a bit like MiB, when nothing happens no one knows. Not to say they are that good but unlimited resources is difficult to best, even if they are rubbish in general.
- new_realist 7y ago
  Intelligence gathering is not the same as predicting the future, no more than a thermometer can tell you whether it will rain on your wedding day. Data gathering is relatively easy, forecasting is hard.
  - dTal 7y ago
    Your analogy is poor; a barometer will indeed tell you it will rain on your wedding day, at least 12 hours in advance. Forecasting is easy, if your collect the right data.
bongobongo 7y ago
Russia already assassinates people all over the world, even in the US (e.g., Mikhail Lesin was likely offed by Russian agents right in the middle of Washington, DC in 2015). It's a very fanciful idea that CIA has as much of a presence in Russia as you think it does. It's really not at all likely that the US could assassinate somebody in Russia _and_ get away with it. That second part is key. Russia isn't as concerned about getting away with it (see the recent cases in the UK) because its entire regime is predicated upon controlled misinformation, and because it isn't afraid to dispose of/disown/disavow an agent or a useful idiot when it is in the government's interest. For a country like the US, it's a bit more complicated. To answer your questions, Snowden only does what he is allowed to do by the Russian government. Snowden is an ex-NSA contractor in Russia right now thanks to the good graces of Vladimir Putin; if you think that he isn't being handled daily by Russian secret services, that's pretty funny.
- duxup 7y ago
  > It's really not at all likely that the US could assassinate somebody in Russia _and_ get away with it. What does this stipulation mean? They certainly could kill him, and even when it was a far more closed society quite difficult to get people in and out of Russia the US was able to do it. These days it wouldn't be hard at all. And it's not like there wouldn't be someone willing to do it for money...
- arisAlexis 7y ago
  unsure why you got downvoted I totally agree. Putin is not doing Snowden a favour just because he is pro freedom of information and leaks.
antidaily 7y ago
True, they could kill him or capture him, etc. But I doubt the US is worried about a provocation to Russia. It would simply be a massively unpopular move. Mostly pointless.
- johnwheeler 7y ago
  I doubt the US is worried about Edward Snowden anymore. That’s not to say he could come back to the states without getting arrested, but I don’t think they’re going to send a spy over there to kill him. I think any covertness is just theatrics at this point, struggling to maintain relevance in a world that’s largely lost interest in him.
  - duxup 7y ago
    It certainly seems there wouldn't seem to be much value in dealing with him now. Historically speaking there have been plenty of former spies, folks who handed over information and after escaping just lived their lives elsewhere. Folks seem to think it operates like some movie where governments are extracting revenge left and right, that doesn't seem to be the case all that often.
    - leaveyou 7y ago
      AFAIK the governments (those who do) don't take revenge left and right out of rage or pettiness. The traitors are usually punished as brutally as possible as a way to discourage others to follow their example.
thesz 7y ago
Someone I knew long time ago was from контрразведка (counterintelligence), concretely, from служба наружного наблюдения (field observation duty). He bragged that Russia's (former USSR) counterintelligence was so sophisticated that higher ranks of spies from around the world all worked in Russia or USSR some time in their career. He presented enough evidence in form of mind experiment that I believe him (mainly due to his reaction time - he has answers readily). So, for your "world's most sophisticated intelligence" I raise my "самая лучшая контрразведка в мире". Can world's best intelligence service be stopped by world's best counterintelligence service? Otherwise we are going into pure speculation, like "spies agree on some kind of rule", etc.
- sonnyblarney 7y ago
  This is not very relevant. Snowdon is not in 'hiding' - if the Russians wanted to hide him, they probably could. But they are not, ergo, the US knows anything they want to know about him.
IllogicalLogic 7y ago
Russia is one of the best black boxes to obfuscate movement from the US. Very possible he left Russia a long time ago. Nobody is closely tracking cargo ships traveling through the arctic.
- est31 7y ago
  There are journalists meeting him in Russia every now and then. You can hide the precise location from someone when you put them into a car, blindfold and drive them around. You can't hide it any more when you have to ship the journalist to a different continent and back in a matter of hours/minutes. Sure you can put the car into an airplane etc but those can be easily tracked. And I doubt they wouldn't spill the secret if they were aware. Also of course the USA tracks everything that can be tracked using satellites. Everything. The CIA in fact had collected tons of satellite images of the arctic and antarctic and contributed them to the science community to study climate change.

by est31 7y ago

otakucode 7y ago

>They are the most sophisticated intelligence collection entity in the world, after all. Who were caught completely off guard by the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the USSR, the Arab Spring, and basically every single geopolitical event in history. I wouldn't invest too much in their abilities.

celticninja 7y ago
Every single one is a bit harsh. There is also survivor bias here, a bit like MiB, when nothing happens no one knows. Not to say they are that good but unlimited resources is difficult to best, even if they are rubbish in general.
new_realist 7y ago
Intelligence gathering is not the same as predicting the future, no more than a thermometer can tell you whether it will rain on your wedding day. Data gathering is relatively easy, forecasting is hard.
- dTal 7y ago
  Your analogy is poor; a barometer will indeed tell you it will rain on your wedding day, at least 12 hours in advance. Forecasting is easy, if your collect the right data.

bongobongo 7y ago

Russia already assassinates people all over the world, even in the US (e.g., Mikhail Lesin was likely offed by Russian agents right in the middle of Washington, DC in 2015). It's a very fanciful idea that CIA has as much of a presence in Russia as you think it does. It's really not at all likely that the US could assassinate somebody in Russia _and_ get away with it. That second part is key. Russia isn't as concerned about getting away with it (see the recent cases in the UK) because its entire regime is predicated upon controlled misinformation, and because it isn't afraid to dispose of/disown/disavow an agent or a useful idiot when it is in the government's interest. For a country like the US, it's a bit more complicated. To answer your questions, Snowden only does what he is allowed to do by the Russian government. Snowden is an ex-NSA contractor in Russia right now thanks to the good graces of Vladimir Putin; if you think that he isn't being handled daily by Russian secret services, that's pretty funny.

duxup 7y ago
> It's really not at all likely that the US could assassinate somebody in Russia _and_ get away with it. What does this stipulation mean? They certainly could kill him, and even when it was a far more closed society quite difficult to get people in and out of Russia the US was able to do it. These days it wouldn't be hard at all. And it's not like there wouldn't be someone willing to do it for money...
arisAlexis 7y ago
unsure why you got downvoted I totally agree. Putin is not doing Snowden a favour just because he is pro freedom of information and leaks.

antidaily 7y ago

True, they could kill him or capture him, etc. But I doubt the US is worried about a provocation to Russia. It would simply be a massively unpopular move. Mostly pointless.

johnwheeler 7y ago
I doubt the US is worried about Edward Snowden anymore. That’s not to say he could come back to the states without getting arrested, but I don’t think they’re going to send a spy over there to kill him. I think any covertness is just theatrics at this point, struggling to maintain relevance in a world that’s largely lost interest in him.
- duxup 7y ago
  It certainly seems there wouldn't seem to be much value in dealing with him now. Historically speaking there have been plenty of former spies, folks who handed over information and after escaping just lived their lives elsewhere. Folks seem to think it operates like some movie where governments are extracting revenge left and right, that doesn't seem to be the case all that often.
  - leaveyou 7y ago
    AFAIK the governments (those who do) don't take revenge left and right out of rage or pettiness. The traitors are usually punished as brutally as possible as a way to discourage others to follow their example.

thesz 7y ago

Someone I knew long time ago was from контрразведка (counterintelligence), concretely, from служба наружного наблюдения (field observation duty). He bragged that Russia's (former USSR) counterintelligence was so sophisticated that higher ranks of spies from around the world all worked in Russia or USSR some time in their career. He presented enough evidence in form of mind experiment that I believe him (mainly due to his reaction time - he has answers readily). So, for your "world's most sophisticated intelligence" I raise my "самая лучшая контрразведка в мире". Can world's best intelligence service be stopped by world's best counterintelligence service? Otherwise we are going into pure speculation, like "spies agree on some kind of rule", etc.

sonnyblarney 7y ago
This is not very relevant. Snowdon is not in 'hiding' - if the Russians wanted to hide him, they probably could. But they are not, ergo, the US knows anything they want to know about him.

IllogicalLogic 7y ago

Russia is one of the best black boxes to obfuscate movement from the US. Very possible he left Russia a long time ago. Nobody is closely tracking cargo ships traveling through the arctic.

est31 7y ago
There are journalists meeting him in Russia every now and then. You can hide the precise location from someone when you put them into a car, blindfold and drive them around. You can't hide it any more when you have to ship the journalist to a different continent and back in a matter of hours/minutes. Sure you can put the car into an airplane etc but those can be easily tracked. And I doubt they wouldn't spill the secret if they were aware. Also of course the USA tracks everything that can be tracked using satellites. Everything. The CIA in fact had collected tons of satellite images of the arctic and antarctic and contributed them to the science community to study climate change.