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Huh. I think I've run into the same 20-30% figures a lot and just sort of filed them as Internet fact in the back of my head. It's heartwarming to know that act

Huh. I think I've run into the same 20-30% figures a lot and just sort of filed them as Internet fact in the back of my head. It's heartwarming to know that actual studies put the number around 0,5-3% It doesn't take much thought to figure out why the 20-30% numbers are trumpeted loud and wide: The implications are nasty and visceral and when there's a number like that you feel like there's a point behind it, so you start to wonder. Of course, it's the same as with any fear peddler; if you get an emotional response to a news that seems to touch your life, you can be pretty sure you're being sold snake oil for someone else's benefit. Why not take the message of this research in a positive manner: Of those who suspect false paternity, less than a third are correct.

dspillett 7y ago
I suspect that it isn't just an "internet fact" (something made up and then copied so many times it starts to look more truthful because of how many times it is seen, because not all those sources can be wrong can they?). The higher figures may well be real, but have been taken from biased sources. If the figures come from paternity testing lab results then you are automatically biasing the data towards those that are suspicious of a paternity matter due to other correlated factors. People with no such suspicions are excluded from the results because they don't take the tests, and they would pull the average figure down if they took part in a test (but why would they think to?).
- DNied 7y ago
  > If the figures come from paternity testing lab results then you are automatically > biasing the data towards those that are suspicious Testing labs also have a vested interest in spreading inflated stats.
- lawlessone 7y ago
  There is one or two internet communities that would likely have an interest in spreading this "internet fact"
  - dspillett 7y ago
    True. Though that doesn't mean the figure didn't have some basis in truth, just with a collection of caveats (that those groups chose to, err, not confuse their sheep with).

dspillett 7y ago

I suspect that it isn't just an "internet fact" (something made up and then copied so many times it starts to look more truthful because of how many times it is seen, because not all those sources can be wrong can they?). The higher figures may well be real, but have been taken from biased sources. If the figures come from paternity testing lab results then you are automatically biasing the data towards those that are suspicious of a paternity matter due to other correlated factors. People with no such suspicions are excluded from the results because they don't take the tests, and they would pull the average figure down if they took part in a test (but why would they think to?).

DNied 7y ago
> If the figures come from paternity testing lab results then you are automatically > biasing the data towards those that are suspicious Testing labs also have a vested interest in spreading inflated stats.
lawlessone 7y ago
There is one or two internet communities that would likely have an interest in spreading this "internet fact"
- dspillett 7y ago
  True. Though that doesn't mean the figure didn't have some basis in truth, just with a collection of caveats (that those groups chose to, err, not confuse their sheep with).