I don't think you're far off. The IPCC panel will probably adjust their models to take into account the Siberian, Canadian, Alaskan, and Greenland permafrost al

I don't think you're far off. The IPCC panel will probably adjust their models to take into account the Siberian, Canadian, Alaskan, and Greenland permafrost all melting. And then we may be more certain about how fast we're accelerating towards the worst case scenarios. I agree that we're already beyond the point of no return. It's sad that popular coverage of climate change still makes the claim that we can avoid a 2C increase and that implies we will continue to live as we do now without having to change anything. The 4-5 year mark is a hypothetical amount of time we may have to survive the worst scenarios if we can mobilize and co-ordinate a vast amount of resources and effort to do so. But I don't think it will be modern life as usual in the decade to come. If we can accept that the worst outcomes are likely to happen then imagining what life will be like may help us do something about it. Maybe people will change their attitudes towards consumption and re-organize our social structures around our local communities. Maybe we'll change the way we eat and manage food. Maybe we'll stop pretending that our lives will be an endless parade of novel devices, entertainments, exotic foods, and limitless supplies of fresh water. Maybe we'll stop wrapping every damn thing in plastic.