3 ms·

I don't think we have 4-5 years left, I think we're already 10 years beyond the point of no return. I'm not a climate scientist so my opinion bears very little

by tremon 7y ago

I don't think we have 4-5 years left, I think we're already 10 years beyond the point of no return. I'm not a climate scientist so my opinion bears very little weight, but I think we lost the battle when the Siberian permafrost started thawing. In my view, even an instantaneous 100% reduction in carbon emissions (including the sudden disappearance of all cattle) will not stop the northern ice cap from disappearing completely, and the methane deposits under it will easily follow. Because of the location, my expectation is that these emissions will significantly alter the path of the northern jet stream, affecting the climate all over the northern hemisphere. But, hey, what do I know, right?

agentultra 7y ago
I don't think you're far off. The IPCC panel will probably adjust their models to take into account the Siberian, Canadian, Alaskan, and Greenland permafrost all melting. And then we may be more certain about how fast we're accelerating towards the worst case scenarios. I agree that we're already beyond the point of no return. It's sad that popular coverage of climate change still makes the claim that we can avoid a 2C increase and that implies we will continue to live as we do now without having to change anything. The 4-5 year mark is a hypothetical amount of time we may have to survive the worst scenarios if we can mobilize and co-ordinate a vast amount of resources and effort to do so. But I don't think it will be modern life as usual in the decade to come. If we can accept that the worst outcomes are likely to happen then imagining what life will be like may help us do something about it. Maybe people will change their attitudes towards consumption and re-organize our social structures around our local communities. Maybe we'll change the way we eat and manage food. Maybe we'll stop pretending that our lives will be an endless parade of novel devices, entertainments, exotic foods, and limitless supplies of fresh water. Maybe we'll stop wrapping every damn thing in plastic.
rhino369 7y ago
The "thawed permafrost = permafucked" hysteria is not based on science. The IPCC, etc. include feedback loops into their calculations.
- tremon 7y ago
  "Not based on science", how? I have stated my observations, and have formed a hypothesis from them. The first part of my prediction is untestable because of a precondition we cannot meet (an instantaneous 100% reduction in carbon emissions), but the latter part is testable. Let's just wait 20-30 years for the permafrost to thaw, and then re-analyze the jet stream, shall we?

by tremon 7y ago

agentultra 7y ago

I don't think you're far off. The IPCC panel will probably adjust their models to take into account the Siberian, Canadian, Alaskan, and Greenland permafrost all melting. And then we may be more certain about how fast we're accelerating towards the worst case scenarios. I agree that we're already beyond the point of no return. It's sad that popular coverage of climate change still makes the claim that we can avoid a 2C increase and that implies we will continue to live as we do now without having to change anything. The 4-5 year mark is a hypothetical amount of time we may have to survive the worst scenarios if we can mobilize and co-ordinate a vast amount of resources and effort to do so. But I don't think it will be modern life as usual in the decade to come. If we can accept that the worst outcomes are likely to happen then imagining what life will be like may help us do something about it. Maybe people will change their attitudes towards consumption and re-organize our social structures around our local communities. Maybe we'll change the way we eat and manage food. Maybe we'll stop pretending that our lives will be an endless parade of novel devices, entertainments, exotic foods, and limitless supplies of fresh water. Maybe we'll stop wrapping every damn thing in plastic.

rhino369 7y ago

The "thawed permafrost = permafucked" hysteria is not based on science. The IPCC, etc. include feedback loops into their calculations.

tremon 7y ago
"Not based on science", how? I have stated my observations, and have formed a hypothesis from them. The first part of my prediction is untestable because of a precondition we cannot meet (an instantaneous 100% reduction in carbon emissions), but the latter part is testable. Let's just wait 20-30 years for the permafrost to thaw, and then re-analyze the jet stream, shall we?