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The point of getting rich from the prediction is to have the money to create the change, not idiotically growing vegetables on your apartment roof, thinking tha
by fleitz 16y ago
The point of getting rich from the prediction is to have the money to create the change, not idiotically growing vegetables on your apartment roof, thinking that your building's roof contains 40m2 of arable land per occupant.
Generally people use futures markets to mitigate risk. Therefore if you believe that oil is mispriced you can use a futures contract to mitigate the effects you have with regard to peak oil (increased prices). Similarly, those who may be affected by rising sea levels (coastal areas) can trade risk with those who will be insulated (inland areas).
The reason why environmentalists don't use these markets to put their money where there mouth is, is because they are much better at scaring people than predicting the future. Hence, if Greenpeace were to buy the futures contracts reflecting its peak oil predictions it would likely lose a lot of money that could better be spent scaring people and collecting membership dues. Greenpeace's expertise is fear mongering, not making accurate predictions with regard to the future price of oil, or climate. If it had such an ability it would have more than enough money to fund its operations, and would not have people on the street collecting money and talking about global warming / peak oil.
Most rational people know that we will eventually see peak oil and that prices will gradually rise making alternative forms of energy more economical in comparison. Buying expensive local food now is a waste of money, it's better to save that money in an interest bearing account and use it in the future when local and non-local food equalize in price. (Note: Shipping an apple across a continent actually uses less gas than to drive it home, note never let a locavore know this, it ruins their girl-meets-tractor fantasies of urban farming.)
See the Simon-Erhlich wager for examples of environmental stupidity with regard to economics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager