2 ms·
> we need better, more cost-effective energy, such as with better nuclear power plants I don't think this will work. Some numbers: * USDA says 70 bushels/acre
by uvdiv 16y ago
> we need better, more cost-effective energy, such as with better nuclear power plants
I don't think this will work. Some numbers:
* USDA says 70 bushels/acre of wheat is the average yield for irrigated fields [1]
* perhaps a theoretical 3 harvests/year [2] could be possible in a climate-controlled building (it takes 110-130 days between planting and harvest), for 210 bushels/acre/year
* solar irradiation amounts to an annual average of about 4 kWh/day/m^2 = 170 W/m^2 in the wheat belt [3], or up to about 6.5 kWh/day/m^2 = 270 W/m^2 average in July
* March 2011 wheat futures are $7.67/bushel on the CME [4]
So I reason: with the cheapest $0.05/kWh electricity (nuclear, hydro, or coal at large-buyer rates), the cost to imitate sunlight, with "100% efficient" lighting (maybe LEDs), would be in the range of $300,000-$500,000/acre per year [5]. (I think the higher figure is closer -- it corresponds to sustaining July-level insolation year round, which would make sense for year-round planting). Which divides up to about $2,500/bushel -- over 300 times current prices. (For household-scale perspective, this is $70/liter).
You can get incremental improvements in power plant economics, but not orders of magnitude (not anytime soon). Given current technology and economics, this idea falls apart.
[1] http://ww.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2002/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/st99_1_033_033.pdf http://ww.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2002/Volume_1,_Chap...
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat#Agronomy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat#Agronomy
[3] http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/redbook/atlas/ http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/redbook/atlas/ (use "horizontal flat plate")
[4] http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/ http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/
[5] calculation:
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=0.05+USD%2FkWh+*+6.5+kWh%2Fm%5E2%2Fday+in+USD%2Facre%2Fyear&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&pbx=1&fp=47da0533087eae8b http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=0.05+USD%...