3 ms·

Right on time: Chicago’s new demographics: ‘A third San Francisco, two-thirds Detroit’ >His analysis of U.S. Census Data found that between 2005 and 2017, the

Right on time: Chicago’s new demographics: ‘A third San Francisco, two-thirds Detroit’ >His analysis of U.S. Census Data found that between 2005 and 2017, the city of Chicago’s 25-39 year-old age cohort grew 15.7 percent, while falling dramatically in the rest of Cook County (7.2 percent drop) as well as the metro area outside of Cook County (5.9 percent decline). >In addition, between 2005-17, Chicago’s population of 25-44 year-olds with a bachelors degrees or additional advanced degrees grew 42 percent. As Saunders wrote in a Twitter thread sharing his findings, “An older, less educated, manufacturing-oriented populace is being replaced by a younger, more educated, knowledge-economy populace.” Chicago now has a higher share of college educated workers than the surrounding suburbs. ==https://chicago.curbed.com/2019/6/24/18691792/chicago-economy-development-demographics https://chicago.curbed.com/2019/6/24/18691792/chicago-econom...

tptacek 7y ago
None of this has anything to do with crime in Chicago. By 2005, Uky Village, Wicker Park, Logan Square and Lincoln Square had been completely gentrified, so much so that we considered moving there with our kids. The fundamental dynamics of Chicago – the yuppy near-north and near-west side neighborhoods, the middle class northwest and bungalow belts, and the tragic, redlined west and south sides, has changed since I was a kid in Beverly. What you would have said about crime in Chicago in 1998 remains true today, with one possible change being that the 1990s gang crackdowns atomized the gangs and amplified the violence.
- moorhosj 7y ago
  ==None of this has anything to do with crime in Chicago.== Sure it does. As working/middle-class jobs leave, neighborhoods who overwhelming relied on those jobs fall into a spiral of dis-investment, de-population and crime. ==the middle class northwest and bungalow belts== I think this is the part you are missing. Neighborhoods like Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Old Irving Park, Norwood Park and Avondale on the northwest side are not the same middle-class neighborhoods they were 15 years ago. They have become upper-middle class neighborhoods filled with young families. The traditional city workers who made these strong middle-class communities are getting priced out. The residency requirements are pushing them to other neighborhoods on the west and southwest side. This trend, along with future immigration may be the best hopes for revitalizing these neighborhoods. ==with one possible change being that the 1990s gang crackdowns atomized the gangs and amplified the violence. == Yes, breaking up the larger gangs has led to less-structured, block-by-block affiliations. That said, the homicide rate is lower today than it was in the 1990s.
  - tptacek 7y ago
    First, Jeff Park is recently popular, but it is still fundamentally a middle class neighborhood full of firefighters and police officers and starter homes. My sister, a public interest DV attorney, and her husband, a local journalist, bought their first house there; as you might imagine, neither are wealthy. Second, to the extent that these places have changed, none of these changes impact the fundamental dynamics of crime in Chicago. Neighborhoods are gradually gentrifying, sure. That's incompatible with the idea that neighborhood flight is worsening crime. I think anyone who lived here in the 1990s would recognize pretty much the same Chicago in 2019, modulo the wifi in the cafes.
    - moorhosj 7y ago
      ==My sister, a public interest DV attorney, and her husband, a local journalist, bought their first house there; as you might imagine, neither are wealthy.== And I have two different co-workers and my tech company who have moved there in the past 5 years. These anecdotes aren't data, but show how personal experience drives perception. ==I think anyone who lived here in the 1990s would recognize pretty much the same Chicago in 2019, modulo the wifi in the cafes== I think the data disagrees with you. Today, 39% of city residents have college degrees, in 1990, it was 19% [1]. The city has a higher percentage of residents with a college degree than larger, metro Chicago, the first time that has ever been the case. Other ways this can be observed is through the disappearance of the "Chicago accent". As more Big Ten graduates have migrated to the city from around the Midwest, the city's make-up has changed [2]. It relates to crime in the way these people have migrated. If the city was 1/3 working class, 1/3 middle class and 1/3 upper class 30 years ago; today it is more like 2/5 working class, 1/5 middle class, and 2/5 upper class. This mirrors what we have seen across the US economy. It reminds us of the quote, "Chicago is the most American of American cities." This change has meant that previously working class neighborhoods have lost jobs, residents and investment. Those are the things that lead to increased levels of crime/violence. If we look at any Rust Belt city, we see high murder rates [3]: >Out of the five metropolitan areas with the highest per capita murder rates, according to CBS News, four are deindustrialized cities: St. Louis, Baltimore, Detroit and Cleveland. Chicago has managed to avoid much of the population loss and economic collapse of these cities, but still saw both happen over the past 40 years. ==Neighborhoods are gradually gentrifying, sure. That's incompatible with the idea that neighborhood flight is worsening crime.== Except there are 77 neighborhoods, so 25 can be gentrifying and seeing lower crime while 5 are facing de-population and increased crime. It's pretty obvious when you look at the 3 most violent neighborhoods (community areas) of Austin, Garfield Park and Englewood. They are each seeing population decrease and together account for 25% of murders in the city. [1] https://danielkayhertz.com/2019/05/15/out-of-state-college-graduates-help-define-chicagos-north-side-zone-of-affluence/ https://danielkayhertz.com/2019/05/15/out-of-state-college-g... [2] https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/04/why-city-accents-are-fading-in-the-midwest/555152/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/04/why-city-accents-are-fa... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/paidpost/cbs/why-are-murder-rates-so-high-in-the-rust-belt.html https://www.nytimes.com/paidpost/cbs/why-are-murder-rates-so...

tptacek 7y ago

None of this has anything to do with crime in Chicago. By 2005, Uky Village, Wicker Park, Logan Square and Lincoln Square had been completely gentrified, so much so that we considered moving there with our kids. The fundamental dynamics of Chicago – the yuppy near-north and near-west side neighborhoods, the middle class northwest and bungalow belts, and the tragic, redlined west and south sides, has changed since I was a kid in Beverly. What you would have said about crime in Chicago in 1998 remains true today, with one possible change being that the 1990s gang crackdowns atomized the gangs and amplified the violence.

moorhosj 7y ago
==None of this has anything to do with crime in Chicago.== Sure it does. As working/middle-class jobs leave, neighborhoods who overwhelming relied on those jobs fall into a spiral of dis-investment, de-population and crime. ==the middle class northwest and bungalow belts== I think this is the part you are missing. Neighborhoods like Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Old Irving Park, Norwood Park and Avondale on the northwest side are not the same middle-class neighborhoods they were 15 years ago. They have become upper-middle class neighborhoods filled with young families. The traditional city workers who made these strong middle-class communities are getting priced out. The residency requirements are pushing them to other neighborhoods on the west and southwest side. This trend, along with future immigration may be the best hopes for revitalizing these neighborhoods. ==with one possible change being that the 1990s gang crackdowns atomized the gangs and amplified the violence. == Yes, breaking up the larger gangs has led to less-structured, block-by-block affiliations. That said, the homicide rate is lower today than it was in the 1990s.
- tptacek 7y ago
  First, Jeff Park is recently popular, but it is still fundamentally a middle class neighborhood full of firefighters and police officers and starter homes. My sister, a public interest DV attorney, and her husband, a local journalist, bought their first house there; as you might imagine, neither are wealthy. Second, to the extent that these places have changed, none of these changes impact the fundamental dynamics of crime in Chicago. Neighborhoods are gradually gentrifying, sure. That's incompatible with the idea that neighborhood flight is worsening crime. I think anyone who lived here in the 1990s would recognize pretty much the same Chicago in 2019, modulo the wifi in the cafes.
  - moorhosj 7y ago
    ==My sister, a public interest DV attorney, and her husband, a local journalist, bought their first house there; as you might imagine, neither are wealthy.== And I have two different co-workers and my tech company who have moved there in the past 5 years. These anecdotes aren't data, but show how personal experience drives perception. ==I think anyone who lived here in the 1990s would recognize pretty much the same Chicago in 2019, modulo the wifi in the cafes== I think the data disagrees with you. Today, 39% of city residents have college degrees, in 1990, it was 19% [1]. The city has a higher percentage of residents with a college degree than larger, metro Chicago, the first time that has ever been the case. Other ways this can be observed is through the disappearance of the "Chicago accent". As more Big Ten graduates have migrated to the city from around the Midwest, the city's make-up has changed [2]. It relates to crime in the way these people have migrated. If the city was 1/3 working class, 1/3 middle class and 1/3 upper class 30 years ago; today it is more like 2/5 working class, 1/5 middle class, and 2/5 upper class. This mirrors what we have seen across the US economy. It reminds us of the quote, "Chicago is the most American of American cities." This change has meant that previously working class neighborhoods have lost jobs, residents and investment. Those are the things that lead to increased levels of crime/violence. If we look at any Rust Belt city, we see high murder rates [3]: >Out of the five metropolitan areas with the highest per capita murder rates, according to CBS News, four are deindustrialized cities: St. Louis, Baltimore, Detroit and Cleveland. Chicago has managed to avoid much of the population loss and economic collapse of these cities, but still saw both happen over the past 40 years. ==Neighborhoods are gradually gentrifying, sure. That's incompatible with the idea that neighborhood flight is worsening crime.== Except there are 77 neighborhoods, so 25 can be gentrifying and seeing lower crime while 5 are facing de-population and increased crime. It's pretty obvious when you look at the 3 most violent neighborhoods (community areas) of Austin, Garfield Park and Englewood. They are each seeing population decrease and together account for 25% of murders in the city. [1] https://danielkayhertz.com/2019/05/15/out-of-state-college-graduates-help-define-chicagos-north-side-zone-of-affluence/ https://danielkayhertz.com/2019/05/15/out-of-state-college-g... [2] https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/04/why-city-accents-are-fading-in-the-midwest/555152/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/04/why-city-accents-are-fa... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/paidpost/cbs/why-are-murder-rates-so-high-in-the-rust-belt.html https://www.nytimes.com/paidpost/cbs/why-are-murder-rates-so...