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Every decade, and it's been several now, the proportion between the population that considers itself Chinese-Taiwanese versus only Taiwanese shifts closer to on

Every decade, and it's been several now, the proportion between the population that considers itself Chinese-Taiwanese versus only Taiwanese shifts closer to only Taiwanese. It is 'inevitable' as well that as more generations live and work in a de facto independent nation, 'reunification' becomes an impossible objective for the mainland, unless force is used. No need to look farther than the Sunflower movement when the previous Taiwanese president ( from the KMT ) tried to build stronger economic ties with China. The young movement literally occupied government, and on the next election the DPP swept to power. Edit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement

simongray 7y ago
Here's some evidence backing your claim: https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.png https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.... It's hard to look at that chart and argue in good faith that reunification is somehow inevitable. We don't even have to go into the obvious cultural differences that exist between a successful, progressive (in an Asian context) democracy and a repressive single-party state.
- Ultramanoid 7y ago
  > evidence... It seems so obvious to anyone in touch with Taiwanese society it didn't occur to me the need to provide it, my mistake. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/2003647291 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/20... Identifying as a Taiwanese only does NOT equal support for independence, by the way. Things are not that simple. And beyond issues of identity, the vast majority of Taiwanese, however they identify themselves, overwhelmingly support the 'status quo', meaning no declaration of independence, no reunification. No one wants war, which seems assured with either of those two options. Edit : Just seeing now that the article claims 51% for independence, but that can't be right, maybe a typo, both independence and reunification are always on the extremes, shifting anywhere from 10 to 25%, and status quo is consistently the preferred option by far.
  - taejo 7y ago
    As an outsider, what's the difference between the status quo and independence? The status quo is that Taiwan has its own government, miltary, economy and diplomatic relations: is independence just about making a political declaration and changing the name of the state?
    - mytailorisrich 7y ago
      Taiwan is formally the Republic of China. Its government used to be the government of China as a whole until forced to retreat to Taiwan by the communists, during the civil war. In fact, formally they still claim the whole of China since that's the constitution of the Republic of China, founded in 1912. You'll note the portrait of Sun Yat-sen, first President in 1912 in the Taiwanese Parliament. And obviously the flag. Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only.
      - taejo 7y ago
        > Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only. This is exactly what I mean by political declaration and name change.
    - Ultramanoid 7y ago
      Short answer, a declaration of independence means war with China. The status quo allows for what are effectively two separate nations to keep face and avoid disaster -- for both. It is a unique and somewhat absurd state of affairs for sure. Long answer is... Long. Probably reading on the history of China and what happened after the Communists won the war and the KMT retreated to Taiwan would be a good starting point to understand what's going on with Taiwan today. ( Edit : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20263049 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20263049 ) Also, no country in the world can have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan if they have them with China. ( Most do unofficially. ) Taiwan is consistently blocked by China from international organizations starting with the UN, etc. Not everything is as it should be in a 'truly' independent nation, with the status quo. A declaration of independence would therefore also affect every other country and the international order of things.

simongray 7y ago

Here's some evidence backing your claim: https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.png https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.... It's hard to look at that chart and argue in good faith that reunification is somehow inevitable. We don't even have to go into the obvious cultural differences that exist between a successful, progressive (in an Asian context) democracy and a repressive single-party state.

Ultramanoid 7y ago
> evidence... It seems so obvious to anyone in touch with Taiwanese society it didn't occur to me the need to provide it, my mistake. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/2003647291 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/20... Identifying as a Taiwanese only does NOT equal support for independence, by the way. Things are not that simple. And beyond issues of identity, the vast majority of Taiwanese, however they identify themselves, overwhelmingly support the 'status quo', meaning no declaration of independence, no reunification. No one wants war, which seems assured with either of those two options. Edit : Just seeing now that the article claims 51% for independence, but that can't be right, maybe a typo, both independence and reunification are always on the extremes, shifting anywhere from 10 to 25%, and status quo is consistently the preferred option by far.
- taejo 7y ago
  As an outsider, what's the difference between the status quo and independence? The status quo is that Taiwan has its own government, miltary, economy and diplomatic relations: is independence just about making a political declaration and changing the name of the state?
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    Taiwan is formally the Republic of China. Its government used to be the government of China as a whole until forced to retreat to Taiwan by the communists, during the civil war. In fact, formally they still claim the whole of China since that's the constitution of the Republic of China, founded in 1912. You'll note the portrait of Sun Yat-sen, first President in 1912 in the Taiwanese Parliament. And obviously the flag. Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only.
    - taejo 7y ago
      > Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only. This is exactly what I mean by political declaration and name change.
  - Ultramanoid 7y ago
    Short answer, a declaration of independence means war with China. The status quo allows for what are effectively two separate nations to keep face and avoid disaster -- for both. It is a unique and somewhat absurd state of affairs for sure. Long answer is... Long. Probably reading on the history of China and what happened after the Communists won the war and the KMT retreated to Taiwan would be a good starting point to understand what's going on with Taiwan today. ( Edit : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20263049 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20263049 ) Also, no country in the world can have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan if they have them with China. ( Most do unofficially. ) Taiwan is consistently blocked by China from international organizations starting with the UN, etc. Not everything is as it should be in a 'truly' independent nation, with the status quo. A declaration of independence would therefore also affect every other country and the international order of things.