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I don’t think China wants to invade Taiwan. They think long term. It’s inevitable that Taiwan reunifies with China eventually as the us continues to withdraw fr

I don’t think China wants to invade Taiwan. They think long term. It’s inevitable that Taiwan reunifies with China eventually as the us continues to withdraw from the world and the mainland economy improves and Taiwan and mainland economic ties grow. Eventually it will get to the point that Taiwanese economic leaders insist on it.

ginko 7y ago
If that's the long term plan, then China's handling of Hong Kong doesn't seem to make all that much sense.
- empath75 7y ago
  At least the pretense for starting the latest crisis was so they could extradite two murderers _to Taiwan_. It seems to have backfired spectacularly though.
Ultramanoid 7y ago
Every decade, and it's been several now, the proportion between the population that considers itself Chinese-Taiwanese versus only Taiwanese shifts closer to only Taiwanese. It is 'inevitable' as well that as more generations live and work in a de facto independent nation, 'reunification' becomes an impossible objective for the mainland, unless force is used. No need to look farther than the Sunflower movement when the previous Taiwanese president ( from the KMT ) tried to build stronger economic ties with China. The young movement literally occupied government, and on the next election the DPP swept to power. Edit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement
- simongray 7y ago
  Here's some evidence backing your claim: https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.png https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.... It's hard to look at that chart and argue in good faith that reunification is somehow inevitable. We don't even have to go into the obvious cultural differences that exist between a successful, progressive (in an Asian context) democracy and a repressive single-party state.
  - Ultramanoid 7y ago
    > evidence... It seems so obvious to anyone in touch with Taiwanese society it didn't occur to me the need to provide it, my mistake. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/2003647291 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/20... Identifying as a Taiwanese only does NOT equal support for independence, by the way. Things are not that simple. And beyond issues of identity, the vast majority of Taiwanese, however they identify themselves, overwhelmingly support the 'status quo', meaning no declaration of independence, no reunification. No one wants war, which seems assured with either of those two options. Edit : Just seeing now that the article claims 51% for independence, but that can't be right, maybe a typo, both independence and reunification are always on the extremes, shifting anywhere from 10 to 25%, and status quo is consistently the preferred option by far.
    - taejo 7y ago
      As an outsider, what's the difference between the status quo and independence? The status quo is that Taiwan has its own government, miltary, economy and diplomatic relations: is independence just about making a political declaration and changing the name of the state?
      - mytailorisrich 7y ago
        Taiwan is formally the Republic of China. Its government used to be the government of China as a whole until forced to retreat to Taiwan by the communists, during the civil war. In fact, formally they still claim the whole of China since that's the constitution of the Republic of China, founded in 1912. You'll note the portrait of Sun Yat-sen, first President in 1912 in the Taiwanese Parliament. And obviously the flag. Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only.
        taejo 7y ago
        > Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only. This is exactly what I mean by political declaration and name change.
barry-cotter 7y ago
The Taiwanese are more aware of the treatment of religious, political and ethnic minorities in China than the average Westerner. Even if they had a strong feeling of being Chinese, why would they settle for conquest by people who do not care about them and want the destruction of their system of government and way of life? The only part of Canada that’s more than vaguely foreign to the US is Quebec and Canada hasn’t petitioned for US annexation. No part of Switzerland has ever shown any enthusiasm for joining those who speak their language in the neighbouring states. Why would a people with 70 years and growing of independence agree to annexation except under threat of death? Economics is just not that important when it comes to national feeling. Ireland lost massive subsidies from England to be independent. The U.K. will not come off better economically from leaving the EU. Most every nation in Africa suffered economically for decades after decolonisation rather than having things get better. People value pride enormously.

ginko 7y ago

If that's the long term plan, then China's handling of Hong Kong doesn't seem to make all that much sense.

empath75 7y ago
At least the pretense for starting the latest crisis was so they could extradite two murderers _to Taiwan_. It seems to have backfired spectacularly though.

Ultramanoid 7y ago

Every decade, and it's been several now, the proportion between the population that considers itself Chinese-Taiwanese versus only Taiwanese shifts closer to only Taiwanese. It is 'inevitable' as well that as more generations live and work in a de facto independent nation, 'reunification' becomes an impossible objective for the mainland, unless force is used. No need to look farther than the Sunflower movement when the previous Taiwanese president ( from the KMT ) tried to build stronger economic ties with China. The young movement literally occupied government, and on the next election the DPP swept to power. Edit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement

simongray 7y ago
Here's some evidence backing your claim: https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.png https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.... It's hard to look at that chart and argue in good faith that reunification is somehow inevitable. We don't even have to go into the obvious cultural differences that exist between a successful, progressive (in an Asian context) democracy and a repressive single-party state.
- Ultramanoid 7y ago
  > evidence... It seems so obvious to anyone in touch with Taiwanese society it didn't occur to me the need to provide it, my mistake. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/2003647291 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2016/05/28/20... Identifying as a Taiwanese only does NOT equal support for independence, by the way. Things are not that simple. And beyond issues of identity, the vast majority of Taiwanese, however they identify themselves, overwhelmingly support the 'status quo', meaning no declaration of independence, no reunification. No one wants war, which seems assured with either of those two options. Edit : Just seeing now that the article claims 51% for independence, but that can't be right, maybe a typo, both independence and reunification are always on the extremes, shifting anywhere from 10 to 25%, and status quo is consistently the preferred option by far.
  - taejo 7y ago
    As an outsider, what's the difference between the status quo and independence? The status quo is that Taiwan has its own government, miltary, economy and diplomatic relations: is independence just about making a political declaration and changing the name of the state?
    - mytailorisrich 7y ago
      Taiwan is formally the Republic of China. Its government used to be the government of China as a whole until forced to retreat to Taiwan by the communists, during the civil war. In fact, formally they still claim the whole of China since that's the constitution of the Republic of China, founded in 1912. You'll note the portrait of Sun Yat-sen, first President in 1912 in the Taiwanese Parliament. And obviously the flag. Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only.
      - taejo 7y ago
        > Based on this I believe that 'independence' means writing this off and declaring that Taiwan is not China but an independent "Republic of Taiwan" only. This is exactly what I mean by political declaration and name change.

barry-cotter 7y ago

The Taiwanese are more aware of the treatment of religious, political and ethnic minorities in China than the average Westerner. Even if they had a strong feeling of being Chinese, why would they settle for conquest by people who do not care about them and want the destruction of their system of government and way of life? The only part of Canada that’s more than vaguely foreign to the US is Quebec and Canada hasn’t petitioned for US annexation. No part of Switzerland has ever shown any enthusiasm for joining those who speak their language in the neighbouring states. Why would a people with 70 years and growing of independence agree to annexation except under threat of death? Economics is just not that important when it comes to national feeling. Ireland lost massive subsidies from England to be independent. The U.K. will not come off better economically from leaving the EU. Most every nation in Africa suffered economically for decades after decolonisation rather than having things get better. People value pride enormously.