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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a bloody, logistical nightmare
- dddw 7y agogood pragmatic view, interesting read.
- SiempreViernes 7y agoYeah, but I would have liked some more commentary about the fact that China doesn't have adequate resources for an invasion (not enough paras or landing vessels). Naively this seems like a purely political choice, expressing an unwillingness to invade Taiwan (right now). I wonder if this is part of fundamental view on the use of force offensively or just result of economic realities.
- throw0101a 7y agoAnother article, referencing a book, that argues that it is not a foregone conclusion: * https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
- empath75 7y agoIt sounds like the best case scenario for Taiwan winning such an invasion would be an almost complete devastation of the island.
- throw0101a 7y agoFor Taiwan, "winning" may simply entail not-losing. They simply may try to exact a really high price for any invader to make them think twice. If it is known that they are willing to burn everything to the ground rather than letting anyone else have it, then adversaries may not think it's worth the price.
- SiempreViernes 7y agoIt's harder to take that one seriously though, being so heavy with fiction when describing the Taiwanese countermeasures it is hard to tell what they actually are.
- empath75 7y agoI don’t think China wants to invade Taiwan. They think long term. It’s inevitable that Taiwan reunifies with China eventually as the us continues to withdraw from the world and the mainland economy improves and Taiwan and mainland economic ties grow. Eventually it will get to the point that Taiwanese economic leaders insist on it.
- ginko 7y agoIf that's the long term plan, then China's handling of Hong Kong doesn't seem to make all that much sense.
- empath75 7y agoAt least the pretense for starting the latest crisis was so they could extradite two murderers _to Taiwan_. It seems to have backfired spectacularly though.
- Ultramanoid 7y agoEvery decade, and it's been several now, the proportion between the population that considers itself Chinese-Taiwanese versus only Taiwanese shifts closer to only Taiwanese. It is 'inevitable' as well that as more generations live and work in a de facto independent nation, 'reunification' becomes an impossible objective for the mainland, unless force is used. No need to look farther than the Sunflower movement when the previous Taiwanese president ( from the KMT ) tried to build stronger economic ties with China. The young movement literally occupied government, and on the next election the DPP swept to power. Edit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_Student_Movement
- simongray 7y agoHere's some evidence backing your claim: https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.png https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fig1.... It's hard to look at that chart and argue in good faith that reunification is somehow inevitable. We don't even have to go into the obvious cultural differences that exist between a successful, progressive (in an Asian context) democracy and a repressive single-party state.
- baybal2 7y agoI'm surprised that they almost omitted the point of mine warfare. Sea mines were historically the most efficient marine weapon ever, and Taiwan has enough of them to use them for months. Allegedly, they also have a stash of domestically developed "smart mines," and that will complicate things even further for the PLA.
- vezycash 7y agoThose whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. History shows that dictators run on a different logic.
- cm2187 7y agoGiven the crucial role of the fleet in PLA's invasion plan, I am surprised Taiwan only has two submarines. I would have assumed it would spend a lot of energy torpedoing the incoming PLA's fleet.
- EliRivers 7y agoPurely thinking out loud, Taiwan doesn't need submarines to deny use of the Taiwan Strait to PRC's surface fleet. Minefields can do the job over a much wider area and much more cheaply. Modern mines can sit passively for extended periods of time and the expensive ones effectively are torpedo launchers. They also have a stock of land-launched (and truck-launched) anti-ship missiles, the range of which exceeds the width of the Strait. The "only" issue there comes in lighting up the incoming PRC vessels to direct the missiles at them, but that's a different problem of detection.
- coldcode 7y agoI wonder if you could drop a few nuclear bombs of small yields to encourage surrender? Obviously its been done in history, but while it might work, the fallout could drift back to China and the political fallout might make the whole thing backfire.
- SiempreViernes 7y agoThe importance of the bomb is actually not clear[1][2], which is not that surprising considering the US had already been almost wiping out Japanese cites for quite a while before they hit Hiroshima. [1] http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/03/08/the-decision-to-use-the-bomb-a-consensus-view/ http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/03/08/the-decision-to-us... [2] http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2015/08/03/were-there-alternatives-to-the-atomic-bombings/ http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2015/08/03/were-there-alterna...
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- Shivetya 7y agoLogistical is the least of the issues, the effect on world financial markets would be astounding. Besides the human cost the repercussions to the world would be generational. Which would be worse, an EU and USA that do nothing in the face of it or do something because of it. The world is boxed and so it really comes down to China deciding if the cost in lives and to their economy is worth it.
- ubercow13 7y agoOfftopic: am I mistaken in thinking that comma shouldn't be in the title?
- sdinsn 7y agoAnd of course someone flagged this good article. The pro-China narrative on HN is real.