You can have all the doubts you want about bias in phone polling, but unless you can explain to me why it should be biased towards Trump supporters in a signifi

You can have all the doubts you want about bias in phone polling, but unless you can explain to me why it should be biased towards Trump supporters in a significant way, I would still go by these numbers as a "best effort" estimate. I could certainly come up with reasons why those numbers would be biased against Trump: Coming out in favor of him is "undeniable support for white supremacy" or "caging children" or "pussy grabbing" or whatever scandal Trump is currently involved in. That's also the likely reason why the election polls were so utterly wrong. > people under the age of 18, incarcerated people, undocumented immigrants, and homeless people Okay, let's say we count all of these as "non-supporters", you'd still have approval by roughly a third of the country. Is "roughly a third" really substantially different from "fourty-ish"? ________________________________________________________ This is an edit as reply, since I'm "posting too fast": > I'm making the case that these polls are not a good basis for drawing any conclusions Given the task of estimating the number of Trump supporters, "I can't do it" is not an acceptable answer. Again, best effort matters, even though we know it's not the true number. > I'm not following the math here. Are you suggesting that, taken together, these groups represent only 7% of the population? Obviously that's not correct. The math is as follows: 330 million people in the US (ballpark figure) 80 million undocumented and/or underage (ballpark figure) therefore, (330 - 80 = 250) million polling candidates 42% of 250 million supporting Donald Trump = 107.5 million 107.5 of 330 million supporting Donald Trump = roughly a third