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> Melting permafrost effectively introduces a new country at number two on the highest emitters list, and one that isn’t accounted for in current IPCC models.
by ddebernardy 7y ago
> Melting permafrost effectively introduces a new country at number two on the highest emitters list, and one that isn’t accounted for in current IPCC models.
Is this correct, or is it just hyperbole? Asking because it's not like melting permafrost wasn't a known potential problem 20 years ago, so I find it dubious that IPCC models might not have factored it in already. Might it be that the IPCC models don't account for the scale of the phenomenon turning out to be worse than expected?
- perfunctory 7y agoIPCC models don't include feedback loops in general. IPCC models are extremely conservative indeed.
- bklaasen 7y agoMy head is reeling. Do you have a source for that?
- perfunctory 7y agoI think this is a good read on IPCC conservatism http://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/What-Lies-Beneath-V3-LR-Blank5b15d.pdf http://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Wha... The sea level chart on page 31 is particularly telling.