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I am pretty convinced nothing serious will be done. We may get lucky and technology will improve to reduce CO2 output but most likely we’ll just deal with the c

I am pretty convinced nothing serious will be done. We may get lucky and technology will improve to reduce CO2 output but most likely we’ll just deal with the consequences of climate change. The world has been always been at flux so we may see refugees, wars and realignment of political power. As it has always been.

wazoox 7y ago
And IEA admitted that peak oil (conventional) occurred in 2008 and that shale oil may peak before 2025. Russia announced its own peak oil for 2021. We'll be struggling soon with the worst of climate change at the same time we'll run out of fossil fuels, with no serious alternative available. This looks decidedly like the "Business as usual" World3 simulation of "Limits to Growth"... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
- elbasti 7y ago
  The issue is that we seem to have triggered two positive feedback loops; methane release from melting ice and loss of Arctic albedo. This means the Earth will continue to warm even in the absence of new emissions, in a runaway fashion.
  - Scarblac 7y ago
    The runaway fashion isn't obvious to me. Once the ice is gone the albedo won't get worse, and atmospheric methane decays in some decades.
    - jacobush 7y ago
      Depends on what you mean I guess with runaway. Dinosaur age tropicals everywhere? Maybe not. Runaway as in deserts making their way into where they were not before, winters disappearing in many places we are used to having them, coastal cities having to pack up and move. Yeah, I can easily see that over a century or two.
    - elbasti 7y ago
      Oh my god, the ice "being gone" is basically the definition of catastrophe. If we get that far then it's way, way, way too late. Saying "once the is is gone the albedo won't get worse" is kind of like saying "eventually the plane that hits the mountain has to stop, and the crash can't get any worse". And yes, atmospheric methane does decay in decades but the point is that before it does, it depletes sea ice and warms the ocean. The absolute worst-case scenario in a runaway climate model is something like the clathrate gun. [2] > "One of the most eminent climate scientists in the world, Peter Wadhams, believes an ice-free Arctic will occur one summer in the next few years and that it will likely increase by 50% the warming caused by the CO2 produced by human activity" [1] [1] : https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf (sorry, not the primary source) [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
deleted 7y ago
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wazoox 7y ago

And IEA admitted that peak oil (conventional) occurred in 2008 and that shale oil may peak before 2025. Russia announced its own peak oil for 2021. We'll be struggling soon with the worst of climate change at the same time we'll run out of fossil fuels, with no serious alternative available. This looks decidedly like the "Business as usual" World3 simulation of "Limits to Growth"... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

elbasti 7y ago
The issue is that we seem to have triggered two positive feedback loops; methane release from melting ice and loss of Arctic albedo. This means the Earth will continue to warm even in the absence of new emissions, in a runaway fashion.
- Scarblac 7y ago
  The runaway fashion isn't obvious to me. Once the ice is gone the albedo won't get worse, and atmospheric methane decays in some decades.
  - jacobush 7y ago
    Depends on what you mean I guess with runaway. Dinosaur age tropicals everywhere? Maybe not. Runaway as in deserts making their way into where they were not before, winters disappearing in many places we are used to having them, coastal cities having to pack up and move. Yeah, I can easily see that over a century or two.
  - elbasti 7y ago
    Oh my god, the ice "being gone" is basically the definition of catastrophe. If we get that far then it's way, way, way too late. Saying "once the is is gone the albedo won't get worse" is kind of like saying "eventually the plane that hits the mountain has to stop, and the crash can't get any worse". And yes, atmospheric methane does decay in decades but the point is that before it does, it depletes sea ice and warms the ocean. The absolute worst-case scenario in a runaway climate model is something like the clathrate gun. [2] > "One of the most eminent climate scientists in the world, Peter Wadhams, believes an ice-free Arctic will occur one summer in the next few years and that it will likely increase by 50% the warming caused by the CO2 produced by human activity" [1] [1] : https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf (sorry, not the primary source) [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

deleted 7y ago

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