5 ms·

I've lived in Chicago my entire life - the city is in a death spiral. When my youngest kid graduates high school I'm out of here. The finances of the city will

I've lived in Chicago my entire life - the city is in a death spiral. When my youngest kid graduates high school I'm out of here. The finances of the city will inevitably end in some combination of bankruptcy and ruin thanks to toxic pensions, the abuse of them, and the city's refusal to prudently manage around them (though in fairness the pensions have been so toxic that no prudence could keep up with them). It's just algebra. The city (and state) is already insolvent and just resorts to various can-kicking tactics. Violent crime is tolerated and ignored by most. No one dare point out the elephant in the room that it's committed wildly disproportionately by minorities. A white kid trolls the Cubs with that bogus "okay" symbol and the city goes berserk; 25 black kids shot over the weekend and it's a collective shrug. Things tend to settle at the level of expectations, and a liberal ethos has set expectations for the black community to be all but nonexistent. The suburbs are dying, and this is reflected in real estate values. Follow the Chicago Tribune's architecture columnist, Dennis Rodkin, on Twitter. Every day this guy features a new home sale in the suburbs where it's sold for less than what it sold for 20, even 30 years ago. It's depressing to see how Illinois' failed policies have a massive tax against families' greatest asset. The city is dying, as population loss continues at a rapid pace. Chicago has lost more millionaires than any other city in the world over the last decade. The stats are all readily available with a quick search. The real estate values will inevitably follow the path of the suburbs. The new governor - a bored billionaire heir who's never accomplished anything on his own merit in his life - is about to effectively double the state income tax. The death spiral accelerates. When you tax something you get less of it. The corruption of the city politicians is tolerated and even joked about as The Chicago Way. Corruption has been normalized, just like it has for places like Russia. These sorts of cultural rot are difficult to reverse. Death spiral.

sprafa 7y ago
Do you actually think that the “lack of expectations” from the leftwing has meant that the black community in Chicago has gone into crime? That seems... absurdly racist or pseudoracist in nature. Do white people also fall into crime because of “lack of expectations” as well? What you describe of black kids dying sounds nothing like “lack of expectations” to me. More like “forsaken communities”. Not denying any longstanding cultural factors, people go into crime because of a combination of opportunity and motivation (from the studies I remember reading). “Lack of expectations” has never been measured as a problem as far as I know. And your sentiment just sounds like 21st century “white mans burden” all over again. If poor crime policy is the problem then that’s another thing entirely. But then crime gets reduced by a combination of reducing inequality, increasing opportunities and yes good (sometimes draconian) policing. But you don’t mention that, only that black people in Chicago are criminal somehow because the political class has a “lack of expectations” for them.
- 0815test 7y ago
  > Do white people also fall into crime because of “lack of expectations” as well? Why not? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory is quite race independent FWIW.
  - almostdeadguy 7y ago
    lol did you read the wikipedia page you just linked?
    - dang 7y ago
      Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News?
      - almostdeadguy 7y ago
        You're a mod here and you're going to police a snarky reply to a racist comment? Interesting priorities.
  - sprafa 7y ago
    I agree that forsaken communities is a problem. That’s why I asked OP if he considered a black problem. I was trying to tease out an answer from him. Of course he immediately attacked me and refused to answer it directly and called what I said gobblygook. Which makes me think I was right in calling him out.
- bedhead 7y ago
  I think you've proven my point about the inability to confront reality and blame shifting that's allowed violence to spiral out of control. That you call me racist in between all that gobbleygook couldn't be more cliche. The lack of expectations is simply an observation and alternative way to say that no one actually cares. And since no one cares, the behavior is allowed to continue unabated. We can debate why no one cares and why it's tolerated (I would argue liberal ethos but to each his own) but the fact is that no one cares and that creates some extraordinarily bad incentives over time.
sgt 7y ago
That's terrible to hear. Is there any upside at all, you think? I mean things like communities coming together and changing the city over time without government intervention, or maybe some kind of hitting rock bottom is often followed by positive change.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
deadwisdom 7y ago
This is all, totally, flagrantly wrong. It's all to be provocative. Firstly, Chicago is one of the top economic cities in the world. Pensions are a big problem, but they are not going to wreck it. The algebra is fine. Violent crime is another big problem, but it's a big problem everywhere in US. Cities, and Chicago isn't even near the top, per-capita. It's almost entirely gang-related. The big problem, as everywhere, is the red-lining of the past, drugs, and no opportunities. Illinois just legalized weed, will release tons of people for drug-related crimes, and this might help the hood a lot. The suburbs are not dying. Real estate isn't great, but guess what, other than a few markets on the west coast, this is what home prices are going to do everywhere. The baby boomers got to have their houses triple, quintuple in value, millennials will not. The population loss of Chicago is only in areas that, frankly, need population loss. There's no reason to live in some of these communities that are beset with drug problems and have no opportunities. These days people have cell-phones and the internet, they can move to better places all over the country. It's the reverse of the great migration and it's because the country hasn't helped these people ever in their entire history. Meanwhile middle-income and high-income 20 somethings are still flocking to Chicago. JB Pritzker is the new governor. He is the absolute opposite of a "bored billionaire" who has never accomplished anything in his life. He has guided the Pritzker funds in a huge amount of charity work all over Chicago including, this audience might want to know, huge investment in startups in Chicago. We are nowhere even close to the normalization of corruption as Russia, that's just stupid. Edit: I also want to add that I've seen this narrative from three places -- journalists trying to be provocative; Chigoans that like to complain about politics but not get involved (favorite pastime); and Hanity trolls trying to stir up reasons why Democrat havens are poorly run / liberal policies supposedly fail.
- vasilipupkin 7y ago
  this take is correct.
  - zootam 7y ago
    i also think bedhead's prognosis is overly bleak and alarmist.
- 7y ago
vasilipupkin 7y ago
this is nonsense, clearly. Nothing is dying and real estate values being cheap is a great thing. Chicago area has fantastic cultural amenities, low unemployment, lots of restaurants, convenient access to airport, great schools ( some of the best in America ), top unversities, lakefront, etc. We have cold winters and quite a few people move to Florida to escape the climate.
zootam 7y ago
>The suburbs are dying, and this is reflected in real estate values. Follow the Chicago Tribune's architecture columnist, Dennis Rodkin, on Twitter. Every day this guy features a new home sale in the suburbs where it's sold for less than what it sold for 20, even 30 years ago. Looking through some of these, I'm not surprised. However, I think its not just taxes and Illinois corruption to blame for the 'death spiral' of far flung suburbs. The housing market in the US is changing in general. Buyers want shorter commutes, urban lifestyles. Living in some of the places Rodkin looks at - Lake Forest, Burr Ridge, Vernon Hills are 1+ hour commutes by train to the loop which a lot of buyers don't want. He retweeted this comic which is one aspect: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9XTp8MXUAE7T7B.png:large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9XTp8MXUAE7T7B.png:large >The real estate values will inevitably follow the path of the suburbs. How long do you think that'll take?
spamizbad 7y ago
I really don't understand how you can blame the downfall of the Chicago suburbs on the city of Chicago. The suburbs were growing and thriving while Chicago rotted away in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. However, since then the economy, culture, and tastes have changed and there's been a sustained period of urban renewal. As businesses seek to relocate to cities to attract millennial talent, suburban office parks and shopping centers have struggled, forcing them push more of their tax burden on residential property taxes. The younger, college-educated workforce prefers urban amenities like shorter commutes, public transit, cycling and walkable living. This is all exacerbated by the financial circumstances of millennials and zoomers. It's no surprise that suburbs that provide those things continue to do well. For example, my hometown of Elmhurst, a Chicago suburb, has radically gentrified since I was a child. The home my parents purchased in 1980 for $68,000 is now worth more than ten times that. Why? Because it's walkable, has a legitimate downtown and you can commute to Chicago in 30 minutes during rush hour with Metra.
tptacek 7y ago
Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

sprafa 7y ago

Do you actually think that the “lack of expectations” from the leftwing has meant that the black community in Chicago has gone into crime? That seems... absurdly racist or pseudoracist in nature. Do white people also fall into crime because of “lack of expectations” as well? What you describe of black kids dying sounds nothing like “lack of expectations” to me. More like “forsaken communities”. Not denying any longstanding cultural factors, people go into crime because of a combination of opportunity and motivation (from the studies I remember reading). “Lack of expectations” has never been measured as a problem as far as I know. And your sentiment just sounds like 21st century “white mans burden” all over again. If poor crime policy is the problem then that’s another thing entirely. But then crime gets reduced by a combination of reducing inequality, increasing opportunities and yes good (sometimes draconian) policing. But you don’t mention that, only that black people in Chicago are criminal somehow because the political class has a “lack of expectations” for them.

0815test 7y ago
> Do white people also fall into crime because of “lack of expectations” as well? Why not? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory is quite race independent FWIW.
- almostdeadguy 7y ago
  lol did you read the wikipedia page you just linked?
  - dang 7y ago
    Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News?
    - almostdeadguy 7y ago
      You're a mod here and you're going to police a snarky reply to a racist comment? Interesting priorities.
- sprafa 7y ago
  I agree that forsaken communities is a problem. That’s why I asked OP if he considered a black problem. I was trying to tease out an answer from him. Of course he immediately attacked me and refused to answer it directly and called what I said gobblygook. Which makes me think I was right in calling him out.
bedhead 7y ago
I think you've proven my point about the inability to confront reality and blame shifting that's allowed violence to spiral out of control. That you call me racist in between all that gobbleygook couldn't be more cliche. The lack of expectations is simply an observation and alternative way to say that no one actually cares. And since no one cares, the behavior is allowed to continue unabated. We can debate why no one cares and why it's tolerated (I would argue liberal ethos but to each his own) but the fact is that no one cares and that creates some extraordinarily bad incentives over time.

sgt 7y ago

That's terrible to hear. Is there any upside at all, you think? I mean things like communities coming together and changing the city over time without government intervention, or maybe some kind of hitting rock bottom is often followed by positive change.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

deadwisdom 7y ago

This is all, totally, flagrantly wrong. It's all to be provocative. Firstly, Chicago is one of the top economic cities in the world. Pensions are a big problem, but they are not going to wreck it. The algebra is fine. Violent crime is another big problem, but it's a big problem everywhere in US. Cities, and Chicago isn't even near the top, per-capita. It's almost entirely gang-related. The big problem, as everywhere, is the red-lining of the past, drugs, and no opportunities. Illinois just legalized weed, will release tons of people for drug-related crimes, and this might help the hood a lot. The suburbs are not dying. Real estate isn't great, but guess what, other than a few markets on the west coast, this is what home prices are going to do everywhere. The baby boomers got to have their houses triple, quintuple in value, millennials will not. The population loss of Chicago is only in areas that, frankly, need population loss. There's no reason to live in some of these communities that are beset with drug problems and have no opportunities. These days people have cell-phones and the internet, they can move to better places all over the country. It's the reverse of the great migration and it's because the country hasn't helped these people ever in their entire history. Meanwhile middle-income and high-income 20 somethings are still flocking to Chicago. JB Pritzker is the new governor. He is the absolute opposite of a "bored billionaire" who has never accomplished anything in his life. He has guided the Pritzker funds in a huge amount of charity work all over Chicago including, this audience might want to know, huge investment in startups in Chicago. We are nowhere even close to the normalization of corruption as Russia, that's just stupid. Edit: I also want to add that I've seen this narrative from three places -- journalists trying to be provocative; Chigoans that like to complain about politics but not get involved (favorite pastime); and Hanity trolls trying to stir up reasons why Democrat havens are poorly run / liberal policies supposedly fail.

vasilipupkin 7y ago
this take is correct.
- zootam 7y ago
  i also think bedhead's prognosis is overly bleak and alarmist.
7y ago

vasilipupkin 7y ago

this is nonsense, clearly. Nothing is dying and real estate values being cheap is a great thing. Chicago area has fantastic cultural amenities, low unemployment, lots of restaurants, convenient access to airport, great schools ( some of the best in America ), top unversities, lakefront, etc. We have cold winters and quite a few people move to Florida to escape the climate.

zootam 7y ago

>The suburbs are dying, and this is reflected in real estate values. Follow the Chicago Tribune's architecture columnist, Dennis Rodkin, on Twitter. Every day this guy features a new home sale in the suburbs where it's sold for less than what it sold for 20, even 30 years ago. Looking through some of these, I'm not surprised. However, I think its not just taxes and Illinois corruption to blame for the 'death spiral' of far flung suburbs. The housing market in the US is changing in general. Buyers want shorter commutes, urban lifestyles. Living in some of the places Rodkin looks at - Lake Forest, Burr Ridge, Vernon Hills are 1+ hour commutes by train to the loop which a lot of buyers don't want. He retweeted this comic which is one aspect: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9XTp8MXUAE7T7B.png:large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9XTp8MXUAE7T7B.png:large >The real estate values will inevitably follow the path of the suburbs. How long do you think that'll take?

spamizbad 7y ago

I really don't understand how you can blame the downfall of the Chicago suburbs on the city of Chicago. The suburbs were growing and thriving while Chicago rotted away in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. However, since then the economy, culture, and tastes have changed and there's been a sustained period of urban renewal. As businesses seek to relocate to cities to attract millennial talent, suburban office parks and shopping centers have struggled, forcing them push more of their tax burden on residential property taxes. The younger, college-educated workforce prefers urban amenities like shorter commutes, public transit, cycling and walkable living. This is all exacerbated by the financial circumstances of millennials and zoomers. It's no surprise that suburbs that provide those things continue to do well. For example, my hometown of Elmhurst, a Chicago suburb, has radically gentrified since I was a child. The home my parents purchased in 1980 for $68,000 is now worth more than ten times that. Why? Because it's walkable, has a legitimate downtown and you can commute to Chicago in 30 minutes during rush hour with Metra.

tptacek 7y ago

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.