4 ms·

I sense a lot of exaggeration in hn regarding the likelihood of armed intervention in the relationship between hk<>mainland. China has nothing to gain from over

by 627467 7y ago

I sense a lot of exaggeration in hn regarding the likelihood of armed intervention in the relationship between hk<>mainland. China has nothing to gain from overt belligerence with its own special region which is clearly regulated by legal framework (unlike Taiwan). I support the cause of Hong Kongers, the general the idea of maintaining both their political and social difference within greater China. I even accept that some political movements in Hk exaggerate the possible threats of Mainland to aid their political cause (considering Mainland might and their track record of intervention in other regions - the threat narrative has factual backing). But what is happening in HK is the democratic expression of a unequal (politically) society and it will be workout politically and not militarily.

lacker 7y ago
It sounds like you’re saying the Chinese government won’t intervene because the status quo is acceptable. But the Chinese government might not be the side to escalate. There’s a lot of protesters now and a lot of subfactions of the protesters. If this keeps up, the protesters might get organized enough for some faction to decide the right move is an escalation to violence. IMO these situations are fundamentally unpredictable, and a violent outcome is quite possible.
- 627467 7y ago
  The situation is so far from unbearable to either side that any suggestion of potential escalation to military levels is madness. HK is not armed. The population is not violent. They are trying to be assertive (kudos for the Democratic society) but these are relatively reasonable masses. If the situation ever became close to military violence HK would shutdown immediately because there 0 chance of a military confrontation between HKSAR and Mainland. And the US or Taiwan would not intervene in a clear domestic Chinese issue.
twblalock 7y ago
If the protesters do not give the mainland government a way to back down without saving face, then the mainland government simply cannot back down -- especially not during a trade war that is already hurting the government's image. I suspect the most likely outcome, if the protests continue, will be the resignation of Carrie Lam followed by statements from Beijing about how she screwed up. They will want to pin the blame on her. If the protesters don't go home after that, the possibility of armed intervention will not seem so remote.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > the mainland government simply cannot back down This is false. Beijing has many other options. Xi's ineptitude and status as a lifetime leader does entrench China more than it should be. But there are many options between total escalation and total retreat.
- 627467 7y ago
  HK being HK is no damage to "PRC face". HK being vocal about Democratic values has been accepted since handover. Mainland has accepted this situation for 50 years. There's still just under 30 years to go to end the deal. All this drama is premature. Also... The world, and China has grown alot since "face" has been excuses for military intervention. China is no.1 world economy with still a lot of bridges to build if they are surpass the west in influence. Mindless violence won't help build any bridges.

by 627467 7y ago

lacker 7y ago

It sounds like you’re saying the Chinese government won’t intervene because the status quo is acceptable. But the Chinese government might not be the side to escalate. There’s a lot of protesters now and a lot of subfactions of the protesters. If this keeps up, the protesters might get organized enough for some faction to decide the right move is an escalation to violence. IMO these situations are fundamentally unpredictable, and a violent outcome is quite possible.

627467 7y ago
The situation is so far from unbearable to either side that any suggestion of potential escalation to military levels is madness. HK is not armed. The population is not violent. They are trying to be assertive (kudos for the Democratic society) but these are relatively reasonable masses. If the situation ever became close to military violence HK would shutdown immediately because there 0 chance of a military confrontation between HKSAR and Mainland. And the US or Taiwan would not intervene in a clear domestic Chinese issue.

twblalock 7y ago

If the protesters do not give the mainland government a way to back down without saving face, then the mainland government simply cannot back down -- especially not during a trade war that is already hurting the government's image. I suspect the most likely outcome, if the protests continue, will be the resignation of Carrie Lam followed by statements from Beijing about how she screwed up. They will want to pin the blame on her. If the protesters don't go home after that, the possibility of armed intervention will not seem so remote.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> the mainland government simply cannot back down This is false. Beijing has many other options. Xi's ineptitude and status as a lifetime leader does entrench China more than it should be. But there are many options between total escalation and total retreat.
627467 7y ago
HK being HK is no damage to "PRC face". HK being vocal about Democratic values has been accepted since handover. Mainland has accepted this situation for 50 years. There's still just under 30 years to go to end the deal. All this drama is premature. Also... The world, and China has grown alot since "face" has been excuses for military intervention. China is no.1 world economy with still a lot of bridges to build if they are surpass the west in influence. Mindless violence won't help build any bridges.