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1) 'Unit sales' data is not super important next to sales, and especially profit. Some of those manufacturers make $1 per unit, whereas Apple may make $50 per u
by sonnyblarney 7y ago
1) 'Unit sales' data is not super important next to sales, and especially profit. Some of those manufacturers make $1 per unit, whereas Apple may make $50 per unit in profit.
Apple is 50% of smartphone wholesale revenues globally (and about $200B in sales for all products).
Given that Apple's margins significantly better than other makers, their 'profit dominance' is even greater, they're likely well over 60% of global smartphone profits.
That's huge.
2) All of that aside, Apple is a monster company globally. Everyone pays attention to what they do. This announcement alone will make a big wave in business, and others will follow their lead.
The world's most admired company with major manufacturing in China - has just indicated 'they want to move 30% out' - this is a big deal.
3) "Although the (China) economy is slowing slightly most agree it is still growing in the 6% range."
No, it's growing at 6% in the imaginary fabricated CPC range. Now, it's more likely a little over 3% in reality. [1]
If you want to know how 'we' (outsiders) try to figure out how much China is actually growing, I recommend FT Podcast (Alphaville) on 'What China Wants' [2] basically, they go into forensic detail about how the financial industry tries to directly measure China growth, because nobody buys the CPC data. The only thing that "everyone agrees" (even China) is that their published numbers are made up.
But it's moot: the era of 'mega growth' is gone, and China is slowing down, this nobody doubts, and this situation is going to be significant pressure on Xi outside of everything else.
4) Most people are generally aware that China is 'big' and does things on scale.
They're building rail - super.
They're landing on the moon - almost irrelevant.
Patent Applications - good, but has to be contextualized for all sorts of things.
But again -> it's besides the point:
Apple is a massive company signalling a move away from China. Many others will follow.
It doesn't matter what happens between Trump and Xi, this pattern is now established.
The manufacturing that leaves is never coming back.
America probably does not gain, but the rest of Asia probably will.
China will keep on doing what China does, as you say.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/04/26/morningstar-chinas-growth-will-shrink-to-3-25/#6fe1a97e37cd https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/04/26/morningsta...
[2] March 21 Financial Times 'Alphaville' Podcast 'What China Wants'
- powerapple 7y ago1000 unit order is 1000 unit order, regardless Apple take 60% profit, or Samsung takes 20%. Factories work on orders, and they don't get to keep Apple's profit.
- theikedo 7y agoYour point on 1) is ridiculous. For every unit sold, there is a person behind it that bought that phone over iPhone. Just because a small percentage of people decide to buy an overpriced iPhone doesn’t equate to market dominance.
- sonnyblarney 7y agoCommenters on HN often lack basic economic sensibility, the comments related to material business issues, particularly finance and economics are odd. My point #1, is the opposite of ridiculous, it's the point. Companies dominate by making money, that's what they care about. Do you not grasp that Samsung, Huawei, end everyone else would instantly trade their position for Apple's? Do you not think that Apple's 50x greater profits doesn't give them enormous leverage? That Apple is selling into a competitive market, and still yields profits and margins massively greater than others is pretty amazing, it doesn't happen in other industries. Apple is clearly the dominant power in mobile, and their next rival is not a handset maker, it's Google. As to my original point: Apple is a huge, powerful and important company, and others will take note of what they do. They are a 'leader' in every sense of the term, it would be 'ridiculous' to deny that. When America's most profitable and admired company that manufactures stuff in China decides to leave - it's a shockwave.