To steal an idea from Taleb- we should worry about things based on the capacity to do harm in the future, not just the number of cases, and the potential distri

To steal an idea from Taleb- we should worry about things based on the capacity to do harm in the future, not just the number of cases, and the potential distribution of outcomes matters. There were 4300 cosmetics injuries last year and there will be about 4300 cosmetics injuries next year. It won't be 8000. There were 372 measles cases in the US last year and 1044 in this year so far, so about 5X. Next year it could increase 5 fold again, or more. There were millions of measles cases per year in the US in the 1960s. People may worry about measles too much, but it is still silly to compare it to something that has no chance of a disastrous outcome. Here's a video where Taleb makes this argument about Ebola at some point in the first few minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEAcmRZUM5M&t=2428s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEAcmRZUM5M&t=2428s