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The actual quote from IPCC text about hundreds of millions people affected is: "Liu et al. (2018) studied the changes in population exposure to severe droughts

by acqq 7y ago

The actual quote from IPCC text about hundreds of millions people affected is: "Liu et al. (2018) studied the changes in population exposure to severe droughts in 27 regions around the globe for 1.5°C and 2°C of warming using the SSP1 population scenario compared to the baseline period of 1986–2005 based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). They concluded that the drought exposure of urban populations in most regions would be decreased at 1.5°C (350.2 ± 158.8 million people) compared to 2°C (410.7 ± 213.5 million people)." So it says: in case of 1.5 deg 350 million, in case of 2 deg 410 million. So it doesn't support your "Watts" quote of: "Only 350 million more urban dwellers will be exposed to severe drought" It's just a clear and inaccurate distortion of the original text, so distorted that it's wrong. And we also know why it's so wrong and distorted: because these "commenters" just want to confuse people and muddy the waters, they aren't interested in the truth or accurately discussing the actual scientific work.

ForHackernews 7y ago
It's not "distorted" at all! At +1.5 C, they're predicting that "only" 350.2 million more people will be exposed to severe drought compared to the baseline period. That's exactly what Watts says. What do you think is distorted? You're mad that he didn't mention the ±158.8 million error bars on that estimate? I feel like I'm talking to a crazy person here -- how do you read the exact same text and see "distortion" when it literally restates the same thing the dry scientific prose says.
- acqq 7y ago
  “Only” is a distortion enough, and also using the number from +2 deg prediction in the +1.5 deg context. If I’d go through it I could find many more of these “muddying the water” techniques. As I’ve quoted the IPCC in that specific case reports the results of the specific scientific paper which is much more precise than what is “distortedly” presented. There are exact criteria specified under which the estimates hold, they are precisely calculated and if you don’t trust the paper you are free to point to the scientific errors, if you find any, which I doubt. But summarising it like it’s just some random guess is precisely the distortion I point to.
  - ForHackernews 7y ago
    > using the number from +2 deg prediction in the +1.5 deg context. It's not! Read your own quote! "[compared to the baseline period of 1986–2005] urban populations in most regions would be decreased at 1.5°C (350.2 ± 158.8 million people) compared to 2°C (410.7 ± 213.5 million people)." You have (accurately, IMHO) rephrased this as: "So it says: in case of 1.5 deg 350 million, in case of 2 deg 410 million." This is EXACTLY what Watts is restating: "if we commit to these...tasks, then we might just barely be able to keep global temperature from rising more than 1.5°C.... only 350 million more urban dwellers will be exposed to severe drought and “deadly heat” events" The IPCC report, your restatement, and Watts summary all say the same thing: If we take drastic action and manage to limit climate change to only +1.5C, then predictions are 350 million people will suffer severe drought. ("only" 350 million instead of 410m as in the +2C scenario) He's not trying to "muddy the waters" -- he's trying get across to a lay reader just how desperate our situation is. If you prefer boring dry IPCC text, so be it, but so far none of these bland scientific reports have made any real policy impact.
    - acqq 7y ago
      OK, thanks, now I understand your view. The problem with "desperate" reformulations is -- despair. That demotivates from taking any action those who don't have enough understanding and start to look at the problem as either "it's hopeless" or are just "blocking out" ("it's so bad that it can't be true"). The humanity just need to act it its best interests in the sense to recognize that looking only for the shortest-term benefits harms the most of humanity already middle-term. The only who can/hope to profit are the kinds of "arm dealers" -- the much less stable world (that is surely going to be a result of a lot of lives exposed to the new climatic conditions) is their direct "profit maker."

by acqq 7y ago

ForHackernews 7y ago

It's not "distorted" at all! At +1.5 C, they're predicting that "only" 350.2 million more people will be exposed to severe drought compared to the baseline period. That's exactly what Watts says. What do you think is distorted? You're mad that he didn't mention the ±158.8 million error bars on that estimate? I feel like I'm talking to a crazy person here -- how do you read the exact same text and see "distortion" when it literally restates the same thing the dry scientific prose says.

acqq 7y ago
“Only” is a distortion enough, and also using the number from +2 deg prediction in the +1.5 deg context. If I’d go through it I could find many more of these “muddying the water” techniques. As I’ve quoted the IPCC in that specific case reports the results of the specific scientific paper which is much more precise than what is “distortedly” presented. There are exact criteria specified under which the estimates hold, they are precisely calculated and if you don’t trust the paper you are free to point to the scientific errors, if you find any, which I doubt. But summarising it like it’s just some random guess is precisely the distortion I point to.
- ForHackernews 7y ago
  > using the number from +2 deg prediction in the +1.5 deg context. It's not! Read your own quote! "[compared to the baseline period of 1986–2005] urban populations in most regions would be decreased at 1.5°C (350.2 ± 158.8 million people) compared to 2°C (410.7 ± 213.5 million people)." You have (accurately, IMHO) rephrased this as: "So it says: in case of 1.5 deg 350 million, in case of 2 deg 410 million." This is EXACTLY what Watts is restating: "if we commit to these...tasks, then we might just barely be able to keep global temperature from rising more than 1.5°C.... only 350 million more urban dwellers will be exposed to severe drought and “deadly heat” events" The IPCC report, your restatement, and Watts summary all say the same thing: If we take drastic action and manage to limit climate change to only +1.5C, then predictions are 350 million people will suffer severe drought. ("only" 350 million instead of 410m as in the +2C scenario) He's not trying to "muddy the waters" -- he's trying get across to a lay reader just how desperate our situation is. If you prefer boring dry IPCC text, so be it, but so far none of these bland scientific reports have made any real policy impact.
  - acqq 7y ago
    OK, thanks, now I understand your view. The problem with "desperate" reformulations is -- despair. That demotivates from taking any action those who don't have enough understanding and start to look at the problem as either "it's hopeless" or are just "blocking out" ("it's so bad that it can't be true"). The humanity just need to act it its best interests in the sense to recognize that looking only for the shortest-term benefits harms the most of humanity already middle-term. The only who can/hope to profit are the kinds of "arm dealers" -- the much less stable world (that is surely going to be a result of a lot of lives exposed to the new climatic conditions) is their direct "profit maker."