Certification already exists for a lot of stuff, and it's proven that it's not a sure shot. Whether it's sysadmins, project managers, scrum masters, accountant

Certification already exists for a lot of stuff, and it's proven that it's not a sure shot. Whether it's sysadmins, project managers, scrum masters, accountants, lawyers, or anything else, there will always be incompetent people, more than you'd expect. University degrees are an even lower standard these days with grade inflation. Certification does well to help mitigate the problem, but it also has a similar effect as standardized tests: students study to pass the exam, not to learn and apply what they've learned. And this goes the same for certifications that require experience and practicums. Bell curves for performance will exist in anything and everything, and the spread is always a lot wider than one would hope.