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All of the National Grid forecast scenarios assume >30M electric vehicles in 2050. You might be confusing the peak power demand (in GW) with the total energy co

All of the National Grid forecast scenarios assume >30M electric vehicles in 2050. You might be confusing the peak power demand (in GW) with the total energy consumption (measured in GWh/TWh). Clearly if everyone charged their vehicles at peak times there'd be problems meeting demand. But that's not the case: EV charging is a flexible demand, and with "smart" chargers and incentives in place to encourage off-peak/overnight charging, demand peaks can be managed. Here's the link to the full Future Energy Scenarios document where you can dig in to the figures in great detail: http://fes.nationalgrid.com/fes-document/ http://fes.nationalgrid.com/fes-document/

michaelt 7y ago
I'm reading the second paragraph of your first link which states "Nine million electric vehicles on UK roads might require 8GW of extra power generation capacity if people charge them when they like. But smart charging could cut that to 4GW, potentially less, according to National Grid’s EV lead, Graeme Cooper." I don't think I'm confused about that - it seems pretty unambiguous to me.
- Reason077 7y ago
  Right. That's a worst case scenario for peak power demand if everybody was charging their EVs at peak time. The solution is to install smart chargers, and incentivise off-peak charging so that a high proportion of charging happens at off-peak times, when there is plenty of surplus generation and grid capacity available. Or, to put it another way: It doesn't make sense to spend billions on building new power plants just because everybody is plugging in their cars when they get home at 6PM every night and causing a huge demand spike. Smart charging and demand management is a much cheaper way to solve the problem.
  - michaelt 7y ago
    The 8GW figure is for everyone charging at peak time; the 4GW figure is for smart chargers (i.e. dynamic internet-of-things off-peak charging) So smart charging halves the need for new power stations - but doesn't eliminate it.
- Brakenshire 7y ago
  You're talking about electricity generation, not about the grid (which is the distribution network). Generation has to increase (by 4-8GW for 9 million cars), but the distribution network doesn't need much extra capacity because most of the charging will happen offpeak.

michaelt 7y ago

I'm reading the second paragraph of your first link which states "Nine million electric vehicles on UK roads might require 8GW of extra power generation capacity if people charge them when they like. But smart charging could cut that to 4GW, potentially less, according to National Grid’s EV lead, Graeme Cooper." I don't think I'm confused about that - it seems pretty unambiguous to me.

Reason077 7y ago
Right. That's a worst case scenario for peak power demand if everybody was charging their EVs at peak time. The solution is to install smart chargers, and incentivise off-peak charging so that a high proportion of charging happens at off-peak times, when there is plenty of surplus generation and grid capacity available. Or, to put it another way: It doesn't make sense to spend billions on building new power plants just because everybody is plugging in their cars when they get home at 6PM every night and causing a huge demand spike. Smart charging and demand management is a much cheaper way to solve the problem.
- michaelt 7y ago
  The 8GW figure is for everyone charging at peak time; the 4GW figure is for smart chargers (i.e. dynamic internet-of-things off-peak charging) So smart charging halves the need for new power stations - but doesn't eliminate it.
Brakenshire 7y ago
You're talking about electricity generation, not about the grid (which is the distribution network). Generation has to increase (by 4-8GW for 9 million cars), but the distribution network doesn't need much extra capacity because most of the charging will happen offpeak.