4 ms·

Lead pollution hypothesis is one of many plausible explanations and shouldn’t be presented as fact.

shereadsthenews 7y ago
True, but there is recent evidence that is pretty much the gold standard for a perfect randomized experiment where they tracked children with high blood levels who did and did not receive interventions to lower it. Those receiving treatment committed violent crimes at a far lower rate than those who were exposed but had no intervention. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20160056 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20160056
- akie 7y ago
  Are you saying that inner city crime is by brain damage, rather than by living in desperate circumstances?
  - shereadsthenews 7y ago
    Yes. Read the paper. All confounding factors are controlled. It is the holy grail of causality.
    - noob_slayer 7y ago
      What about possible unknown unknown confounding factors?
  - dreamcompiler 7y ago
    Yes. Desperate circumstances contributed (and still do) but there is ample evidence that the huge uptick in urban crime in the 60s and 70s was due to leaded gasoline.
  - scythe 7y ago
    Are you saying the rectangle’s area is caused by its length, rather than its width?
  - wsxcde 7y ago
    Vaguely relevant: there's reason to believe that the current Central American gang violence epidemic, which is driving the migrant crisis at the US/Mexico border is also due to leaded gasoline. Central America didnt' eliminate leaded gasoline until the 2000s.
    - javitury 7y ago
      Many european countries eliminated unleaded gasoline during the same time. And crime rates dropped much sooner. I'd say unleaded gasoline is not the most important factor. For Europe, I think it was drug use.
      - ses1984 7y ago
        Can you elaborate?
        javitury 7y ago
        Leaded gasoline was banned around the year 2000 in both the EU and Mexico. At that time, crime rates were dropping significantly in Europe, without elapsing 18-25 years. Also, European countries have some of the lowest crime rates in the world. If the young of the 2000s were under its influence, the effect is not large(not larger than 1-2 homicides per 100K people). I believe that drug abuse during the 80s and 90s was the culprit of high crime rates in Europe. People addicted to drugs(heroin, crack, cocaine, etc.) committed lots of crimes. In the late 90s and early 2000s, Europe managed to lower drug abuse and then crimes dropped. For Mexico, there is likely another explanation. Like drug trafficking for instance. Having said this, I think leaded gasoline has adverse effects on public health. I believe it can create mental problems on people. However, not everyone exposed to leaded gasoline will develop those problems. And among those affected, not all of them will become criminals only because of lead poisoning. Therefore, I don't think that the majority of criminals during the 90s were so because of leaded gasoline. I think that other factors were more important, like drug abuse.
        shereadsthenews 7y ago
  - naravara 7y ago
    I think the lead hypothesis suggests that lead exposure inhibits impulse control, which can manifest as higher rates of violent crime but can also manifest in other ways. Presumably, desperate circumstances will make it manifest as violent/property crime. But there are probably other manifestations that slide under the criminal justice radar too, like domestic violence and general aggression/bullying among communities in less desperate circumstances.
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      During the 2001 recession, 2008 financial crisis there were dire predictions that violent crime would go up. Misc property crime went up a bit and violent crime didn't. Violent crime perpetrated by young urban males continued to decline as well. In the face of high rates of unemployment. Personally I think cultural normalization of violence and quality of policing plays a role in the level of violence. But socio-economic factors really don't.

True, but there is recent evidence that is pretty much the gold standard for a perfect randomized experiment where they tracked children with high blood levels who did and did not receive interventions to lower it. Those receiving treatment committed violent crimes at a far lower rate than those who were exposed but had no intervention. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20160056 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20160056

akie 7y ago
Are you saying that inner city crime is by brain damage, rather than by living in desperate circumstances?
- shereadsthenews 7y ago
  Yes. Read the paper. All confounding factors are controlled. It is the holy grail of causality.
  - noob_slayer 7y ago
    What about possible unknown unknown confounding factors?
- dreamcompiler 7y ago
  Yes. Desperate circumstances contributed (and still do) but there is ample evidence that the huge uptick in urban crime in the 60s and 70s was due to leaded gasoline.
- scythe 7y ago
  Are you saying the rectangle’s area is caused by its length, rather than its width?
- wsxcde 7y ago
  Vaguely relevant: there's reason to believe that the current Central American gang violence epidemic, which is driving the migrant crisis at the US/Mexico border is also due to leaded gasoline. Central America didnt' eliminate leaded gasoline until the 2000s.
  - javitury 7y ago
    Many european countries eliminated unleaded gasoline during the same time. And crime rates dropped much sooner. I'd say unleaded gasoline is not the most important factor. For Europe, I think it was drug use.
    - ses1984 7y ago
      Can you elaborate?
      - javitury 7y ago
        Leaded gasoline was banned around the year 2000 in both the EU and Mexico. At that time, crime rates were dropping significantly in Europe, without elapsing 18-25 years. Also, European countries have some of the lowest crime rates in the world. If the young of the 2000s were under its influence, the effect is not large(not larger than 1-2 homicides per 100K people). I believe that drug abuse during the 80s and 90s was the culprit of high crime rates in Europe. People addicted to drugs(heroin, crack, cocaine, etc.) committed lots of crimes. In the late 90s and early 2000s, Europe managed to lower drug abuse and then crimes dropped. For Mexico, there is likely another explanation. Like drug trafficking for instance. Having said this, I think leaded gasoline has adverse effects on public health. I believe it can create mental problems on people. However, not everyone exposed to leaded gasoline will develop those problems. And among those affected, not all of them will become criminals only because of lead poisoning. Therefore, I don't think that the majority of criminals during the 90s were so because of leaded gasoline. I think that other factors were more important, like drug abuse.
        shereadsthenews 7y ago
- naravara 7y ago
  I think the lead hypothesis suggests that lead exposure inhibits impulse control, which can manifest as higher rates of violent crime but can also manifest in other ways. Presumably, desperate circumstances will make it manifest as violent/property crime. But there are probably other manifestations that slide under the criminal justice radar too, like domestic violence and general aggression/bullying among communities in less desperate circumstances.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    During the 2001 recession, 2008 financial crisis there were dire predictions that violent crime would go up. Misc property crime went up a bit and violent crime didn't. Violent crime perpetrated by young urban males continued to decline as well. In the face of high rates of unemployment. Personally I think cultural normalization of violence and quality of policing plays a role in the level of violence. But socio-economic factors really don't.