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Of course the media present doom and gloom. But many of these companies have diversified their business. Most companies mentioned in this article have diversi

Of course the media present doom and gloom. But many of these companies have diversified their business. Most companies mentioned in this article have diversified their customer base and while there is some short term pain, most will move past this. Longer term, I think we are creating a competitor in China. I can’t imagine the Chinese government, seeing how vulnerable they are, won’t invest heavily to produce internal competitors.

sverhagen 7y ago
So you are saying that after the short term pain there will be... long term pain (a strong competitor created)?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- NotPaidToPost 7y ago
  The US government is not interested in the long term. The horizon is the 2020 election.
mtgx 7y ago
Have you paid attention at all to China in the past decade? China was already a competitor in many industries, getting rapidly better -- and it did all on the backs of American tech either by stealing it or through forced tech transfers. Yes, "China will invest more into its local tech", but: 1) It was already doing that 2) that's still an overall step back from getting turn-key tech solutions from foreign companies plus employee training on the new tech done through tech transfers and mandatory "joint ventures." If China has to do everything itself, it will take a long time before it's a threat. Like Huawei is basically dead in the water now without American tech. I'm sure it won't be easy to start it all from scratch on its own (+gov aids which they were already receiving).
- adrian_b 7y ago
  I see a lot of claims about "forced tech transfers" to Chinese companies. This is a completely ridiculous complaint because none of those transfers were forced. All of them were approved by American, European, Japanese and so on CEOs, not because anyone forced them but because they desired to gain themselves a lot of money, maybe also because their companies gained a lot of money in the short term, even if the deal was bad in the long term for their companies or for their countries. Why do you see anything wrong in the fact that the Chinese were smart enough to negotiate good deals with their Western partners ? You should blame the American etc. CEOs, because they were stupid and greedy, not the Chinese. I had a former colleague that more than 10 years ago was detached by his company for several months at Huawei, teaching them how to manufacture mobile phones. Already at the time I believed that it was a stupid technology transfer, and obviously, after a few years that Western company had to exit the mobile phone market, because, unlike Huawei, it was no longer competitive. But again, none of those technology transfers was forced in any way. I have no doubt that the Chinese conpanies, like many companies from USA or other countries, have also stolen some IP, when there was any opportunity. Nevertheless, having experience in mobile phone design, I am certain that whatever they have stolen was much less than what they have just bought from willing partners. Moreover, it is obvious that during the last years they have improved a lot above whatever they have bought or stolen and now it is they who should fear that the Americans might want to steal their IP. Supposing that the claims about IP theft are true, then the Americans should have presented some proof and they should have applied sanctions many years ago, because if there was any IP theft there was much more of it 10 years ago then now. As it is now the USA sanctions look like commercial fraud, i.e. you have US companies that first lure you to buy products from them, claiming that they are better than alternatives, so you invest a lot of money in developing products that include US components, then, from one day to the other those US companies refuse to sell you their components causing you huge damages, as you might need a year or more to redesign everything to avoid US components. This is a lesson for any electronics designer from any other country except USA, that from now on in any new project they should avoid components made in USA like the plague.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

sverhagen 7y ago

So you are saying that after the short term pain there will be... long term pain (a strong competitor created)?

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
NotPaidToPost 7y ago
The US government is not interested in the long term. The horizon is the 2020 election.

mtgx 7y ago

Have you paid attention at all to China in the past decade? China was already a competitor in many industries, getting rapidly better -- and it did all on the backs of American tech either by stealing it or through forced tech transfers. Yes, "China will invest more into its local tech", but: 1) It was already doing that 2) that's still an overall step back from getting turn-key tech solutions from foreign companies plus employee training on the new tech done through tech transfers and mandatory "joint ventures." If China has to do everything itself, it will take a long time before it's a threat. Like Huawei is basically dead in the water now without American tech. I'm sure it won't be easy to start it all from scratch on its own (+gov aids which they were already receiving).

adrian_b 7y ago
I see a lot of claims about "forced tech transfers" to Chinese companies. This is a completely ridiculous complaint because none of those transfers were forced. All of them were approved by American, European, Japanese and so on CEOs, not because anyone forced them but because they desired to gain themselves a lot of money, maybe also because their companies gained a lot of money in the short term, even if the deal was bad in the long term for their companies or for their countries. Why do you see anything wrong in the fact that the Chinese were smart enough to negotiate good deals with their Western partners ? You should blame the American etc. CEOs, because they were stupid and greedy, not the Chinese. I had a former colleague that more than 10 years ago was detached by his company for several months at Huawei, teaching them how to manufacture mobile phones. Already at the time I believed that it was a stupid technology transfer, and obviously, after a few years that Western company had to exit the mobile phone market, because, unlike Huawei, it was no longer competitive. But again, none of those technology transfers was forced in any way. I have no doubt that the Chinese conpanies, like many companies from USA or other countries, have also stolen some IP, when there was any opportunity. Nevertheless, having experience in mobile phone design, I am certain that whatever they have stolen was much less than what they have just bought from willing partners. Moreover, it is obvious that during the last years they have improved a lot above whatever they have bought or stolen and now it is they who should fear that the Americans might want to steal their IP. Supposing that the claims about IP theft are true, then the Americans should have presented some proof and they should have applied sanctions many years ago, because if there was any IP theft there was much more of it 10 years ago then now. As it is now the USA sanctions look like commercial fraud, i.e. you have US companies that first lure you to buy products from them, claiming that they are better than alternatives, so you invest a lot of money in developing products that include US components, then, from one day to the other those US companies refuse to sell you their components causing you huge damages, as you might need a year or more to redesign everything to avoid US components. This is a lesson for any electronics designer from any other country except USA, that from now on in any new project they should avoid components made in USA like the plague.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]