Found it from a post on Overcoming Bias http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/12/how-hopeless-a-phd.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/12/how-hopeless-a-phd.

Found it from a post on Overcoming Bias http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/12/how-hopeless-a-phd.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/12/how-hopeless-a-phd.htm... Robin's last line is: "Overall, my estimate of the chances of success went up after reading the article."