2 ms·

I wonder how far away we are from simulating the human gut, so we can introduce a variable, hit 'run', and take a snapshot every x hours. I'm guessing we're 0.

I wonder how far away we are from simulating the human gut, so we can introduce a variable, hit 'run', and take a snapshot every x hours. I'm guessing we're 0.0000001% of the way there, given how complex all the interactions must be.

acomjean 7y ago
I work in a lab where some of the researchers are working on the much simpler fly gut. Even in the simpler fly It’s very difficult to get anything approaching causality because they’re are so many variables in gut bacteria populations. It’s a huge ecosystem unto itself.
- cheerlessbog 7y ago
  Flies can eat literal garbage so I am also curious how their guts do not have arbitrary digestive problems (let's just say there's not much quality control on the input). Also whether they develop infections.
jgtrosh 7y ago
I looked around a teeny bit and there's some stuff but what you describe doesn't show up right away. This is a chemical (?) simulator that's been around since 1993 I believe: https://www.wur.nl/en/product/Simulator-of-Human-Intestinal-Microbial-Ecosystem-SHIME.htm https://www.wur.nl/en/product/Simulator-of-Human-Intestinal-... I also found this numeric simulator: https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/microbiome/simulator/ https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/microbiome/simulator... but I can't view the content right now.
gingabriska 7y ago
They already do this to design fighter jets, rockets and space suits.
- grey413 7y ago
  Those are much, much simpler systems. Your average human microbiome has 30+ trillion cells in it, too say nothing of the intestinal cells. That's not getting into the underlying complexity of the cells themselves.
sndean 7y ago
I think we're still far away from that, but we're trying to get there. Some successful work has been done based on AGORA models [1], where the simulations seem to roughly match the reality of simplified systems. For example, for a five-member community of bacteria, answering questions like "what happens if we remove bacteria B from the community?", but not too much beyond that yet. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3703 https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3703

acomjean 7y ago

I work in a lab where some of the researchers are working on the much simpler fly gut. Even in the simpler fly It’s very difficult to get anything approaching causality because they’re are so many variables in gut bacteria populations. It’s a huge ecosystem unto itself.

cheerlessbog 7y ago
Flies can eat literal garbage so I am also curious how their guts do not have arbitrary digestive problems (let's just say there's not much quality control on the input). Also whether they develop infections.

jgtrosh 7y ago

I looked around a teeny bit and there's some stuff but what you describe doesn't show up right away. This is a chemical (?) simulator that's been around since 1993 I believe: https://www.wur.nl/en/product/Simulator-of-Human-Intestinal-Microbial-Ecosystem-SHIME.htm https://www.wur.nl/en/product/Simulator-of-Human-Intestinal-... I also found this numeric simulator: https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/microbiome/simulator/ https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/microbiome/simulator... but I can't view the content right now.

gingabriska 7y ago

They already do this to design fighter jets, rockets and space suits.

grey413 7y ago
Those are much, much simpler systems. Your average human microbiome has 30+ trillion cells in it, too say nothing of the intestinal cells. That's not getting into the underlying complexity of the cells themselves.

sndean 7y ago

I think we're still far away from that, but we're trying to get there. Some successful work has been done based on AGORA models [1], where the simulations seem to roughly match the reality of simplified systems. For example, for a five-member community of bacteria, answering questions like "what happens if we remove bacteria B from the community?", but not too much beyond that yet. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3703 https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3703