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Yield curve inversion != recession, as most people on HN have clarified numerous times. it's not even the top 10 predictors. US has THE strongest economy in t

Yield curve inversion != recession, as most people on HN have clarified numerous times. it's not even the top 10 predictors. US has THE strongest economy in the world right now. You'll see depression in China (already happening), and recession in Japan/EU/Canada/Mexico first. US has the lowest unemployment rate in 30 years, wage growth, 3% gdp growth, and foreign direct investments going through the roof.

YeahSureWhyNot 7y ago
soo is the wage growth lowest or going thru the roof?
H8crilA 7y ago
Well actually it has always been followed by a recession for quite a while now. So it's certainly a good predictor. But sometimes one had to wait as much as a few years, that's why SPY is not tanking. Article's still trash. This guy is forecasting a 6% yield on 10 year treasuries, yeah sure: https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate
aphextron 7y ago
>US has the lowest unemployment rate in 30 years, wage growth, 3% gdp growth, and foreign direct investments going through the roof. This really has nothing to do with whether a recession is around the corner or not. They don't just gradually come about over the course of years; they happen in an instant. Before anyone is even aware of what's happening the layoffs start piling up and it becomes exponential, as decreased business spending and consumer confidence feedback into each other. Fall of 2007 was the peak of irrational exuberance with a multi-decade low in unemployment and all time market highs, but by spring of '08 there was mass panic and people had lost everything.
- cencacenca 7y ago
  the 2008 recession was characterized by 0% interest rate and bad mortgage loans. the 2000 recession was characterized by threats of emerging jobs offshoring and bad investments into internet companies that don't make money. the 1990 recession was characterized by threats of sky high oil price, and so was 1980. Nothing like that exists to hurt US economy right now
  - remarkEon 7y ago
    >...bad investments into internet companies that don't make money. Uhh
gruez 7y ago
>it's not even the top 10 predictors. What’s your criteria for “top”? AFAIK every recession in the past century was preceded by a yield curve inversion. Also, what are the top 10 predictors?
- stillbourne 7y ago
  I would love to see a reply to this.
xiphias2 7y ago
Low unemployment rate is another great predictor of a recession, as it's a sign of misallocation of capital. It's a good thing and bad thing at the same time.

YeahSureWhyNot 7y ago

soo is the wage growth lowest or going thru the roof?

H8crilA 7y ago

Well actually it has always been followed by a recession for quite a while now. So it's certainly a good predictor. But sometimes one had to wait as much as a few years, that's why SPY is not tanking. Article's still trash. This guy is forecasting a 6% yield on 10 year treasuries, yeah sure: https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate

aphextron 7y ago

>US has the lowest unemployment rate in 30 years, wage growth, 3% gdp growth, and foreign direct investments going through the roof. This really has nothing to do with whether a recession is around the corner or not. They don't just gradually come about over the course of years; they happen in an instant. Before anyone is even aware of what's happening the layoffs start piling up and it becomes exponential, as decreased business spending and consumer confidence feedback into each other. Fall of 2007 was the peak of irrational exuberance with a multi-decade low in unemployment and all time market highs, but by spring of '08 there was mass panic and people had lost everything.

cencacenca 7y ago
the 2008 recession was characterized by 0% interest rate and bad mortgage loans. the 2000 recession was characterized by threats of emerging jobs offshoring and bad investments into internet companies that don't make money. the 1990 recession was characterized by threats of sky high oil price, and so was 1980. Nothing like that exists to hurt US economy right now
- remarkEon 7y ago
  >...bad investments into internet companies that don't make money. Uhh

gruez 7y ago

>it's not even the top 10 predictors. What’s your criteria for “top”? AFAIK every recession in the past century was preceded by a yield curve inversion. Also, what are the top 10 predictors?

stillbourne 7y ago
I would love to see a reply to this.

xiphias2 7y ago

Low unemployment rate is another great predictor of a recession, as it's a sign of misallocation of capital. It's a good thing and bad thing at the same time.