Iran knows that the US public doesn't believe its own US intelligence after Iraq, so it could easily be behind the attacks knowing that the US is on a leash of

Iran knows that the US public doesn't believe its own US intelligence after Iraq, so it could easily be behind the attacks knowing that the US is on a leash of public opinion to do anything about it. That's a very optimistic take on U.S. public opinion. I think this is going to be a lot easier than you assume. If you start with Trump's approval rating, which is somewhere in the low forties, you just need another ten percent of the country to find it unbelievable that somebody would fake a casus belli against Iran and U.S. intelligence would go along with it. Once the mobilization is in swing, there will be an additional cushion of people who don't think the government should be second-guessed during a war, or who shrug their shoulders because they think Iran has it coming anyway. The media can't help cooperating; their editorial content might be against the war, but war coverage is inherently exciting and will stoke people's appetite. If Trump does this -- and I think he regards it as his best shot at re-election -- I wouldn't be surprised if his approval rating goes to over 60% in the first week of the conflict.