5 ms·

This is probably in response to the Euro weather model, which has been producing better forecasts. Especially for named storms.

by chiph 7y ago

tinix 7y ago
You might be onto something... met.no has been more accurate than the usual domestic weather forecasts for as long as I can remember. Literally, it can be hailing outside, and thundering, and NOAA says like 20% chance of rain and sunny, where met.no might say 70% chance of storms, cloudy, etc... https://www.met.no/en/free-meteorological-data https://www.met.no/en/free-meteorological-data
- Thlom 7y ago
  User facing interface: https://www.yr.no/?spr=eng https://www.yr.no/?spr=eng
  - karlshea 7y ago
    They have a very cool iOS app too: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/yr-no/id490989206 https://apps.apple.com/us/app/yr-no/id490989206
exhilaration 7y ago
The Europeans are putting big money into weather forecasting, "The goal is to be able to provide, by 2025, reliable forecasts up to two weeks in advance." https://www.zdnet.com/article/europes-big-weather-supercomputer-data-center-is-about-to-leave-uk/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/europes-big-weather-supercompu... As far as I know other than this model upgrade, there are no major investment being made in American weather forecasting.
- ekianjo 7y ago
  How far from that goal are they at the moment?
  - foepys 7y ago
    Judging by last week's forecasts for my region: pretty far off. Sudden rain in the regions of 10mm/m² and a lot of clouds when sunny weather was predicted. The exact opposite happened as well. Temperatures were off by 5-8°C, too. All of this for same day forecasts, not even 2 days in advance.
    - ekianjo 7y ago
      rain is pretty hard to predict though. I guess what matters the most is if you can reliably predict major events like heavy storms rather than if you will get a bit wet later today.
the_mitsuhiko 7y ago
Might be, but ECMWF just has many more observations so it will be hard to compete.
- privateSFacct 7y ago
  I use ECMWF but never even knew what was different - def more reliable where I am for cloud / sun. Haven’t paid attention enough to see if it’s wind predictions are better
  - the_mitsuhiko 7y ago
    Some differences are covered here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/download/attachments/53517138/PT.3.3046.pdf?version=1&modificationDate=1454097191465&api=v2 https://confluence.ecmwf.int/download/attachments/53517138/P... (2016)
  - akie 7y ago
    I once had lunch with a senior meteorologist at the WMO, who was (5 years ago) convinced that the European model was 5 to 10 years ahead of the US model and that it would be hard for them to catch up. Not sure if that's still the case.

This is probably in response to the Euro weather model, which has been producing better forecasts. Especially for named storms.

by chiph 7y ago

This is probably in response to the Euro weather model, which has been producing better forecasts. Especially for named storms.

tinix 7y ago

You might be onto something... met.no has been more accurate than the usual domestic weather forecasts for as long as I can remember. Literally, it can be hailing outside, and thundering, and NOAA says like 20% chance of rain and sunny, where met.no might say 70% chance of storms, cloudy, etc... https://www.met.no/en/free-meteorological-data https://www.met.no/en/free-meteorological-data

Thlom 7y ago
User facing interface: https://www.yr.no/?spr=eng https://www.yr.no/?spr=eng
- karlshea 7y ago
  They have a very cool iOS app too: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/yr-no/id490989206 https://apps.apple.com/us/app/yr-no/id490989206

exhilaration 7y ago

The Europeans are putting big money into weather forecasting, "The goal is to be able to provide, by 2025, reliable forecasts up to two weeks in advance." https://www.zdnet.com/article/europes-big-weather-supercomputer-data-center-is-about-to-leave-uk/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/europes-big-weather-supercompu... As far as I know other than this model upgrade, there are no major investment being made in American weather forecasting.

ekianjo 7y ago
How far from that goal are they at the moment?
- foepys 7y ago
  Judging by last week's forecasts for my region: pretty far off. Sudden rain in the regions of 10mm/m² and a lot of clouds when sunny weather was predicted. The exact opposite happened as well. Temperatures were off by 5-8°C, too. All of this for same day forecasts, not even 2 days in advance.
  - ekianjo 7y ago
    rain is pretty hard to predict though. I guess what matters the most is if you can reliably predict major events like heavy storms rather than if you will get a bit wet later today.

the_mitsuhiko 7y ago

Might be, but ECMWF just has many more observations so it will be hard to compete.

privateSFacct 7y ago
I use ECMWF but never even knew what was different - def more reliable where I am for cloud / sun. Haven’t paid attention enough to see if it’s wind predictions are better
- the_mitsuhiko 7y ago
  Some differences are covered here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/download/attachments/53517138/PT.3.3046.pdf?version=1&modificationDate=1454097191465&api=v2 https://confluence.ecmwf.int/download/attachments/53517138/P... (2016)
- akie 7y ago
  I once had lunch with a senior meteorologist at the WMO, who was (5 years ago) convinced that the European model was 5 to 10 years ahead of the US model and that it would be hard for them to catch up. Not sure if that's still the case.