6 ms·

No More Shiny Tomorrows: Futurism Needs to Get Real

75 points by areoform 7y ago

existencebox 7y ago
I hit quite a wall of cognitive dissonence when I read their enumeration of a "middle future." Transparent? Human-time-focused? maintainable? Those properties aren't true of the present, nor have they been true for any large swath of human history that I'm aware of. What's odd about this is that I agree with the crux of their statement, most futurism is focused on the extremes, and the sheer mundanity of how the "current future" has panned out often isn't well captured. However, I don't find their alternative persuasively different, and it seems to fall prey to exactly what they're criticizing ala utopianism. I think fundamentally my issue is that a human centric view of the future seems as utopian as anything else they describe, vs a more realistic view to my eyes (and why dystopias resonate with me), driven by the same incentives that have, do, and will for the forseeable future continue to motivate us: Increased growth, rate of return, and efficiency, focused in the areas that most benefit those with incumbent power. So rather than just saying "they're wrong let's all be pessimists" let me transition this into an open question. How do we realign incentives such that the article's aspirations are more reflective of where we see corps investing their effort? (This probably is a total rathole for even one of their enumerations, ala transportation, but it's where my head is at when I read this.)
- sacomo 7y ago
  The status quo understands that the `utopia` of the future (the shiny versions) will not be achieved under the current economic / political paradigms. They are afraid of losing their centers of power and for them it is easier to discourage systemic change. That is all this boils down to. Eventually we will all need to come to grips with the systemic changes required to move forward. I just hope it happens before they get their Elysium.
- wwweston 7y ago
  > Transparent? Human-time-focused? maintainable? Those properties aren't true of the present, nor have they been true for any large swath of human history that I'm aware of. Of course, neither are jet packs, autonomous vehicles, and AI assistants. We're trying to bring those technologies into existence. But that may not be enough to make for a brighter future. We may also have to bring institutions organized around better values into existence.
Hextinium 7y ago
If anyone wants to learn more about "non shiny futures" then I highly recommend Issac Author. He explains al of the crazy scifi stuff in very available language and really demonstrates this kind of thinking. His YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g
- Balero 7y ago
  *Issac Arthur I also quite enjoyed a number of his videos, but mainly the earlier ones, I think he runs low on good topics, mainly after covering them all.
- stronglikedan 7y ago
  While I love the content, language and pacing, I think he should get a narrator. That whole Elmer Fudd thing is kind of off putting. I'm not trying to slight him in any way. I'm just a realist.
  - GuiA 7y ago
    In case it has never been said to you, the respectful way of saying "that whole Elmer Fudd thing" is "speech impediment".
    - jameskegel 7y ago
      The exact word you’re looking for is Rhotacism
    - stronglikedan 7y ago
      Toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe. Both are just as respectful. Elmer Fudd is just more specific with regard to the type of impediment. Although, as jameskegel pointed out, Rhotacism is most specific.
wuliwong 7y ago
>We need to stop looking at what looks cool and focus on what works. And what works often looks boring. I feel like the author is addressing a whole industry that I didn't even know was a thing?
jraines 7y ago
I’d say bleak and dystopian futures are overrepresented in sci-fi, even when they’re “clean” looking as opposed to grungy cyberpunk. I’m commenting on visual, narrative, sci-fi despite that being slightly off the author’s topic, because I don’t know what the “futurism industry” is. Is there such a thing? I know there’s a bunch of people famous for techno-prognostication, and a smaller bunch for whom it’s their full time gig, but is it an industry?
- Barrin92 7y ago
  > because I don’t know what the “futurism industry” is. Is there such a thing? Yep there is. I found this post from last year to be worth a read: https://onezero.medium.com/nike-and-boeing-are-paying-sci-fi-writers-to-predict-their-futures-fdc4b6165fa4 https://onezero.medium.com/nike-and-boeing-are-paying-sci-fi...
- darkpuma 7y ago
  In my social circle the idea that we're already living in a cyberpunk dystopia is becoming increasingly popular.
- jaimebuelta 7y ago
  We sort of lost the ability to imagine a better world, at least in fiction stories. It’s very difficult to find some sort of invented technology that is mindblowingly good in sci-fi these days (like Star Trek replicator, for instance). They are all terrible and oppressive, even if they look good (like amazing VR), it will be played for bad (now everything in the VR is scary!) I think this is actually not great. Sure, sci-fi should talk about the dangers of technology, but it should also talk about great ideas and fictional inventions that inspire scientists and engineers. There’s not much of that these days...
  - paulryanrogers 7y ago
    This may be a reflection of the pessimism of the younger generations. Their parents and grandparents witnessed great progress with few, relatively manageable side effects--or so they thought. It was natural and easy to be optimistic Now with micro-plastic pollution, mercury accumulation, CO2 filling the skies, and the prospect of ever fewer raw resources I can imagine why younger folks can relate to darker stories.
harimau777 7y ago
As I understand it, the job of futurism isn't so much to literally predict the future as it is to provide inspiration for it. The author may have a point that the current futurism inspiring Silicon Valley isn't useful; however, it doesn't seem to understand that any alternative must still be inspiring. This is something that I find frustrating about modern critics of tech and society even though I agree with them that certain things need to be fixed. At best they are able to muster up a saccharine, Demolition Man style utopia and at worst a spartan society where ambition must be abandoned in the name of environmentalism/egalitarianism/etc. Does anyone know of any alternate visions of the future that are still inspiring?
- pdimitar 7y ago
  The "Ghost in the Shell" universe, maybe? People are able to replace parts of their bodies with prosthetics, including organs. It's not free though, and society and world there aren't changed much compared to now. I still find GITS to be one of the more slightly pessimistic but overall realistic predictions of the future. A lot better technology but same problems as we have now.
  - livueta 7y ago
    If we're talking anime, I'd also nominate Dennou Coil - near-future, quite plausible examination of pervasive AR tech. Instead of the usual "prop for generic authoritarian hellscape" dynamic, you get a fairly balanced look at the effects of the tech on a recognizably similar society. I think I found the concept/world particularly compelling because the bulk of the story ends up being about where and how that tech breaks: for instance, you've got an underground economy where the primary currency is essentially zero-days and plot points that (implicitly) center on concepts like cache coherency and eventually-consistent distributed systems. Most of the other examples of sci-fi futures I wouldn't hate living in are far-future, the Culture being the obvious one. The grandparent seems to be on to something: there aren't a lot of hopeful (or at least ambivalently complex) recent works that focus on near futures instead of post-scarcity spacemen.
    - 7y ago
sacomo 7y ago
Then use your imagination and write some new novels. People are free to write whatever they want.
winchling 7y ago
>Sound [...] a single, subtle element of the human experience A desirable feature of sci-fi futures such as Hitchhikers or Star Trek is that computers and handheld devices respond instantaneously and with a perfectly synchronised accompaniment of bings/beeps/chirps.
aperrien 7y ago
I find that their version of a middle future has two oddly lacking points: * How does this technology service people in rural areas? * How does this technology help people in poverty escape it? Given the way everything else was discussed, it really seems strange that those topics are lacking. It's even more apparent when they discuss light rail as a means of replacing existing transportation, as much as I love the concept of light rail.
- TomMckenny 7y ago
  It maybe that philosophy behind "middle futurism" is applicable to rural areas but the author couldn't think up examples. But I image rural areas would be particularly rich in modestly functional older technology that could be tweaked. Technology to help people escape poverty would be extraordinarily nice. Difficult in our economic system but maybe there are some things around maintainability over disposability that could help. Perhaps particulars are left as an exercise for the reader and another article.

75 points by areoform 7y ago

I hit quite a wall of cognitive dissonence when I read their enumeration of a "middle future." Transparent? Human-time-focused? maintainable? Those properties aren't true of the present, nor have they been true for any large swath of human history that I'm aware of. What's odd about this is that I agree with the crux of their statement, most futurism is focused on the extremes, and the sheer mundanity of how the "current future" has panned out often isn't well captured. However, I don't find their alternative persuasively different, and it seems to fall prey to exactly what they're criticizing ala utopianism. I think fundamentally my issue is that a human centric view of the future seems as utopian as anything else they describe, vs a more realistic view to my eyes (and why dystopias resonate with me), driven by the same incentives that have, do, and will for the forseeable future continue to motivate us: Increased growth, rate of return, and efficiency, focused in the areas that most benefit those with incumbent power. So rather than just saying "they're wrong let's all be pessimists" let me transition this into an open question. How do we realign incentives such that the article's aspirations are more reflective of where we see corps investing their effort? (This probably is a total rathole for even one of their enumerations, ala transportation, but it's where my head is at when I read this.)

sacomo 7y ago
The status quo understands that the `utopia` of the future (the shiny versions) will not be achieved under the current economic / political paradigms. They are afraid of losing their centers of power and for them it is easier to discourage systemic change. That is all this boils down to. Eventually we will all need to come to grips with the systemic changes required to move forward. I just hope it happens before they get their Elysium.
wwweston 7y ago
> Transparent? Human-time-focused? maintainable? Those properties aren't true of the present, nor have they been true for any large swath of human history that I'm aware of. Of course, neither are jet packs, autonomous vehicles, and AI assistants. We're trying to bring those technologies into existence. But that may not be enough to make for a brighter future. We may also have to bring institutions organized around better values into existence.

Hextinium 7y ago

If anyone wants to learn more about "non shiny futures" then I highly recommend Issac Author. He explains al of the crazy scifi stuff in very available language and really demonstrates this kind of thinking. His YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g

Balero 7y ago
*Issac Arthur I also quite enjoyed a number of his videos, but mainly the earlier ones, I think he runs low on good topics, mainly after covering them all.
stronglikedan 7y ago
While I love the content, language and pacing, I think he should get a narrator. That whole Elmer Fudd thing is kind of off putting. I'm not trying to slight him in any way. I'm just a realist.
- GuiA 7y ago
  In case it has never been said to you, the respectful way of saying "that whole Elmer Fudd thing" is "speech impediment".
  - jameskegel 7y ago
    The exact word you’re looking for is Rhotacism
  - stronglikedan 7y ago
    Toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe. Both are just as respectful. Elmer Fudd is just more specific with regard to the type of impediment. Although, as jameskegel pointed out, Rhotacism is most specific.

wuliwong 7y ago

>We need to stop looking at what looks cool and focus on what works. And what works often looks boring. I feel like the author is addressing a whole industry that I didn't even know was a thing?

jraines 7y ago

I’d say bleak and dystopian futures are overrepresented in sci-fi, even when they’re “clean” looking as opposed to grungy cyberpunk. I’m commenting on visual, narrative, sci-fi despite that being slightly off the author’s topic, because I don’t know what the “futurism industry” is. Is there such a thing? I know there’s a bunch of people famous for techno-prognostication, and a smaller bunch for whom it’s their full time gig, but is it an industry?

Barrin92 7y ago
> because I don’t know what the “futurism industry” is. Is there such a thing? Yep there is. I found this post from last year to be worth a read: https://onezero.medium.com/nike-and-boeing-are-paying-sci-fi-writers-to-predict-their-futures-fdc4b6165fa4 https://onezero.medium.com/nike-and-boeing-are-paying-sci-fi...
darkpuma 7y ago
In my social circle the idea that we're already living in a cyberpunk dystopia is becoming increasingly popular.
jaimebuelta 7y ago
We sort of lost the ability to imagine a better world, at least in fiction stories. It’s very difficult to find some sort of invented technology that is mindblowingly good in sci-fi these days (like Star Trek replicator, for instance). They are all terrible and oppressive, even if they look good (like amazing VR), it will be played for bad (now everything in the VR is scary!) I think this is actually not great. Sure, sci-fi should talk about the dangers of technology, but it should also talk about great ideas and fictional inventions that inspire scientists and engineers. There’s not much of that these days...
- paulryanrogers 7y ago
  This may be a reflection of the pessimism of the younger generations. Their parents and grandparents witnessed great progress with few, relatively manageable side effects--or so they thought. It was natural and easy to be optimistic Now with micro-plastic pollution, mercury accumulation, CO2 filling the skies, and the prospect of ever fewer raw resources I can imagine why younger folks can relate to darker stories.

harimau777 7y ago

As I understand it, the job of futurism isn't so much to literally predict the future as it is to provide inspiration for it. The author may have a point that the current futurism inspiring Silicon Valley isn't useful; however, it doesn't seem to understand that any alternative must still be inspiring. This is something that I find frustrating about modern critics of tech and society even though I agree with them that certain things need to be fixed. At best they are able to muster up a saccharine, Demolition Man style utopia and at worst a spartan society where ambition must be abandoned in the name of environmentalism/egalitarianism/etc. Does anyone know of any alternate visions of the future that are still inspiring?

pdimitar 7y ago
The "Ghost in the Shell" universe, maybe? People are able to replace parts of their bodies with prosthetics, including organs. It's not free though, and society and world there aren't changed much compared to now. I still find GITS to be one of the more slightly pessimistic but overall realistic predictions of the future. A lot better technology but same problems as we have now.
- livueta 7y ago
  If we're talking anime, I'd also nominate Dennou Coil - near-future, quite plausible examination of pervasive AR tech. Instead of the usual "prop for generic authoritarian hellscape" dynamic, you get a fairly balanced look at the effects of the tech on a recognizably similar society. I think I found the concept/world particularly compelling because the bulk of the story ends up being about where and how that tech breaks: for instance, you've got an underground economy where the primary currency is essentially zero-days and plot points that (implicitly) center on concepts like cache coherency and eventually-consistent distributed systems. Most of the other examples of sci-fi futures I wouldn't hate living in are far-future, the Culture being the obvious one. The grandparent seems to be on to something: there aren't a lot of hopeful (or at least ambivalently complex) recent works that focus on near futures instead of post-scarcity spacemen.
  - 7y ago

sacomo 7y ago

Then use your imagination and write some new novels. People are free to write whatever they want.

winchling 7y ago

>Sound [...] a single, subtle element of the human experience A desirable feature of sci-fi futures such as Hitchhikers or Star Trek is that computers and handheld devices respond instantaneously and with a perfectly synchronised accompaniment of bings/beeps/chirps.

aperrien 7y ago

I find that their version of a middle future has two oddly lacking points: * How does this technology service people in rural areas? * How does this technology help people in poverty escape it? Given the way everything else was discussed, it really seems strange that those topics are lacking. It's even more apparent when they discuss light rail as a means of replacing existing transportation, as much as I love the concept of light rail.

TomMckenny 7y ago
It maybe that philosophy behind "middle futurism" is applicable to rural areas but the author couldn't think up examples. But I image rural areas would be particularly rich in modestly functional older technology that could be tweaked. Technology to help people escape poverty would be extraordinarily nice. Difficult in our economic system but maybe there are some things around maintainability over disposability that could help. Perhaps particulars are left as an exercise for the reader and another article.