These arguments seem entirely unconvincing to me, in the same way that the Fermi Paradox is. Let's take some small numbers (which we got mostly by guesses, not

These arguments seem entirely unconvincing to me, in the same way that the Fermi Paradox is. Let's take some small numbers (which we got mostly by guesses, not experimentation), multiply them together, and then be shocked at what a tiny number it is.