7 ms·

Actual paper here: https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.358/ https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.358... My conclusions

Actual paper here: https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.358/ https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.358... My conclusions: * A carbon tax would be nice to incentivize accountability around net- greenhouse gas contributions. * This paper does quite a bit of probabilistic inference here. They conclude, for example, that the ~two orders of magnitude difference in emissions implies the model is working. ( https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.358/elementa-7-358-g4.png?action=download https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.358... ) This isn't super surprising since they're trying to measure methane emissions ~a km away from the source, but should measure our expectations. Also, the whole dataset is available here (https://oneshare.cdlib.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.15146/R3WT2N https://oneshare.cdlib.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.15146/R3WT2N) if anyone is interested. Props to the authors for including it. (Disclosure: My company buys quite a bit of inorganic fertilizer every year. None of it is US sourced though as we're operating in subsaharan Africa.)

pjc50 7y ago
If we can't have a carbon tax because of the politics, we should at least try for a ban on fracking. Every molecule of gas extracted has to go somewhere, either into the atmosphere directly or as CO2.
- mikemotherwell 7y ago
  We shouldn't do anything in any direction without detailed comparisons. https://www.drawdown.org/ https://www.drawdown.org/ has a big list of things that can be done, with the benefits of each in terms of cost and carbon reduction. It would make most sense to work through the list. If you guessed what number 1 is, you're a smarter human than I am! https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/materials/refrigerant-management https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/materials/refrigerant-man...
  - perfunctory 7y ago
    > We shouldn't do anything in any direction without detailed comparisons. I feel differently. We should do everything. All at the same time. We don't have the luxury of time to pick and choose anymore. Good that you brought up the drawdown project. Even the number 1 on their list is "only" like about 5% of total ghg. No single solution will be enough. So we need to try to do as much in as many sectors as possible. Including fracking.
    - ryanmercer 7y ago
      >I feel differently. We should do everything. All at the same time. We don't have the luxury of time to pick and choose anymore. As much as it would incredibly suck (for convenience and variety in life) I think we, as a species, need to completely abandon fossil fuels in the next 10 years. Sadly it'll never happen, we will be burning fossil fuels well past seeing massive deaths from starvation/drought/unpredictable weather/food wars. Gentlemen, it has been a privilege playing with you tonight.
      - perfunctory 7y ago
        > As much as it would incredibly suck (for convenience and variety in life) The good news is that it wouldn't even suck. I don't think so. We are being brainwashed (sorry, being informed about products and services via advertisement) that car ownership is the best thing since the pill, and that flying to a tech conference is a great experience. There are better (and much less polluting) ways to have fun. I believe without the fossil industry we will flourish and our quality of life will skyrocket.
        ahje 7y ago
        > car ownership While ownership isn't that important per se, access to a car is vital for many people living where there are no public transport options available. Unless you intend to start relocating people forcibly, we need to maintain some kind of transport ability on the country side. Doesn't have to be run on fossil fuels, though.
- Angostura 7y ago
  I think the politics will allow it - we should be fighting for a Carbon Fee & Dividend system https://citizensclimatelobby.org/basics-carbon-fee-dividend/ https://citizensclimatelobby.org/basics-carbon-fee-dividend/
  - skosch 7y ago
    Indeed! Thanks to tireless lobbying, there is now a bipartisan-sponsored bill before the House: https://teddeutch.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=399493 https://teddeutch.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?Documen... This is the one mechanism that actually has the potential to turn the entire economy around without directly making politicians look bad, so it has a nonzero chance of passing. The best thing you can do for the climate today is to call your representatives about this bill, or better, send handwritten letters or letters to the editor.
    - edcastano 7y ago
      Try www.writegreen.org to write a personal letter to Congress in 4 minutes instead of two hours. Personal letters are 20x more effective than form letters.
- pas 7y ago
  Fracking seems to be largely the cause of dropping natural gas prices which led to the phasing out of coal. Without fracking were we closing this many coal plants? Would other nations close this many coal plants?
  - pjc50 7y ago
    Not sure; in the UK there is no fracking beyond a bit of exploration yet, but the "dash for gas" converted a lot of power stations and the remaining coal-fired ones were closed by the Large Combustion Plant Directive. We're now down to near-zero coal consumption. Even Drax has been retrofitted to burn wood (although this is of questionable sustainability since it has to be imported - last time I ran the maths I concluded it would burn every tree in the UK in a year)
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Which actually is a big step already. Coal is dirty energy source in more than one way. And burning wood, even imported, is still preferable if you ask from a CO2 perspective. If we get to the point where gas in only needed to cover periods where renewables cannot we almost won. Almost... Not sure when zero coal is going to happen in Germany...
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  ...unless made into plastic.
- roenxi 7y ago
  Indeed, and this article highlights a very thorny political issue - if a carbon tax was in place, would this finding mean it would have 100x the impact on food prices that was modeled? If a carbon tax is so high that fertiliser becomes uneconomic to use (which is sorta the goal of a carbon tax at some point, to squeeze people who emit so they behave differently) that is maybe going to start impacting food prices. Somebody is going to feel that. As a political topic fertiliser needs careful handling.
fifnir 7y ago
> would be nice to incentivize accountability If only we could "incentivize accountability" the way we do it for poor people...
- benj111 7y ago
  Do you want to be a bit more explicit, because I cant really work out what you're referring to.
  - Nasrudith 7y ago
    Crack down harshly without consideration of any mitigating circumstances the same normal "tough on crime" policies never applied to those with resources to defend themselves. Since there is the utterly fucked norm of "should have done X" victim blaming without regards to viability to the poor and sympathy for rich criminals or harsh condemnation followed by a lenient sentence less than far more petty crimes like having three marajuana plants in pots.
clydethefrog 7y ago
How would a carbon tax be implemented in the short time we still have to tackle the climate crisis? Society hasn't been able to fix all the normal tax loopholes and avoidance, why would a carbon tax suddenly be efficient?
- dev_dull 7y ago
  And even if WE did implement it quickly and efficiency, and it works as intended, how do you convinced the other countries responsible for the other 85% of global carbon emissions to care?
  - perfunctory 7y ago
    Some other countries have already implemented carbon tax. Some as early as 1991 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#Sweden And what about China? Well, if US introduces carbon tax, demanding the same from China would a fair move in the current trade negotiations.
  - mac01021 7y ago
    1) Many of them already claim to care but won't benefit much from any policies they might implement if the US and China and India aren't going to act too. 2) The current carbon pricing bill in the House of Representatives (HR 763 [1][2]) includes border adjustments based on the carbon footprint of imported goods, which will incentivize our trading partners to implement similar policies or reduce their carbon footprints by other means. [1] https://citizensclimatelobby.org/energy-innovation-and-carbon-dividend-act/ https://citizensclimatelobby.org/energy-innovation-and-carbo... [2] https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763 https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763
  - chimprich 7y ago
    How do you convince the countries responsible for the other 85% if you haven't taken steps yourself? Someone has to lead.
- specialist 7y ago
cwkoss 7y ago
How about a methane-leakage tax, separately from the carbon tax? If leaked methane is ~40x worse than CO2, shouldn't it be taxed at ~40x the rate?
- estsauver 7y ago
  Generally speaking, a "Carbon tax" would most likely be on "Net green house gas contributions normalized to CO2 tons." Basically, I believe your objection has been thought of and is incorporated in most proposals.
  - cwkoss 7y ago
    Glad to hear this is the case, thanks

pjc50 7y ago

If we can't have a carbon tax because of the politics, we should at least try for a ban on fracking. Every molecule of gas extracted has to go somewhere, either into the atmosphere directly or as CO2.

mikemotherwell 7y ago
We shouldn't do anything in any direction without detailed comparisons. https://www.drawdown.org/ https://www.drawdown.org/ has a big list of things that can be done, with the benefits of each in terms of cost and carbon reduction. It would make most sense to work through the list. If you guessed what number 1 is, you're a smarter human than I am! https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/materials/refrigerant-management https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/materials/refrigerant-man...
- perfunctory 7y ago
  > We shouldn't do anything in any direction without detailed comparisons. I feel differently. We should do everything. All at the same time. We don't have the luxury of time to pick and choose anymore. Good that you brought up the drawdown project. Even the number 1 on their list is "only" like about 5% of total ghg. No single solution will be enough. So we need to try to do as much in as many sectors as possible. Including fracking.
  - ryanmercer 7y ago
    >I feel differently. We should do everything. All at the same time. We don't have the luxury of time to pick and choose anymore. As much as it would incredibly suck (for convenience and variety in life) I think we, as a species, need to completely abandon fossil fuels in the next 10 years. Sadly it'll never happen, we will be burning fossil fuels well past seeing massive deaths from starvation/drought/unpredictable weather/food wars. Gentlemen, it has been a privilege playing with you tonight.
    - perfunctory 7y ago
      > As much as it would incredibly suck (for convenience and variety in life) The good news is that it wouldn't even suck. I don't think so. We are being brainwashed (sorry, being informed about products and services via advertisement) that car ownership is the best thing since the pill, and that flying to a tech conference is a great experience. There are better (and much less polluting) ways to have fun. I believe without the fossil industry we will flourish and our quality of life will skyrocket.
      - ahje 7y ago
        > car ownership While ownership isn't that important per se, access to a car is vital for many people living where there are no public transport options available. Unless you intend to start relocating people forcibly, we need to maintain some kind of transport ability on the country side. Doesn't have to be run on fossil fuels, though.
Angostura 7y ago
I think the politics will allow it - we should be fighting for a Carbon Fee & Dividend system https://citizensclimatelobby.org/basics-carbon-fee-dividend/ https://citizensclimatelobby.org/basics-carbon-fee-dividend/
- skosch 7y ago
  Indeed! Thanks to tireless lobbying, there is now a bipartisan-sponsored bill before the House: https://teddeutch.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=399493 https://teddeutch.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?Documen... This is the one mechanism that actually has the potential to turn the entire economy around without directly making politicians look bad, so it has a nonzero chance of passing. The best thing you can do for the climate today is to call your representatives about this bill, or better, send handwritten letters or letters to the editor.
  - edcastano 7y ago
    Try www.writegreen.org to write a personal letter to Congress in 4 minutes instead of two hours. Personal letters are 20x more effective than form letters.
pas 7y ago
Fracking seems to be largely the cause of dropping natural gas prices which led to the phasing out of coal. Without fracking were we closing this many coal plants? Would other nations close this many coal plants?
- pjc50 7y ago
  Not sure; in the UK there is no fracking beyond a bit of exploration yet, but the "dash for gas" converted a lot of power stations and the remaining coal-fired ones were closed by the Large Combustion Plant Directive. We're now down to near-zero coal consumption. Even Drax has been retrofitted to burn wood (although this is of questionable sustainability since it has to be imported - last time I ran the maths I concluded it would burn every tree in the UK in a year)
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Which actually is a big step already. Coal is dirty energy source in more than one way. And burning wood, even imported, is still preferable if you ask from a CO2 perspective. If we get to the point where gas in only needed to cover periods where renewables cannot we almost won. Almost... Not sure when zero coal is going to happen in Germany...
Robotbeat 7y ago
...unless made into plastic.
roenxi 7y ago
Indeed, and this article highlights a very thorny political issue - if a carbon tax was in place, would this finding mean it would have 100x the impact on food prices that was modeled? If a carbon tax is so high that fertiliser becomes uneconomic to use (which is sorta the goal of a carbon tax at some point, to squeeze people who emit so they behave differently) that is maybe going to start impacting food prices. Somebody is going to feel that. As a political topic fertiliser needs careful handling.

fifnir 7y ago

> would be nice to incentivize accountability If only we could "incentivize accountability" the way we do it for poor people...

benj111 7y ago
Do you want to be a bit more explicit, because I cant really work out what you're referring to.
- Nasrudith 7y ago
  Crack down harshly without consideration of any mitigating circumstances the same normal "tough on crime" policies never applied to those with resources to defend themselves. Since there is the utterly fucked norm of "should have done X" victim blaming without regards to viability to the poor and sympathy for rich criminals or harsh condemnation followed by a lenient sentence less than far more petty crimes like having three marajuana plants in pots.

clydethefrog 7y ago

How would a carbon tax be implemented in the short time we still have to tackle the climate crisis? Society hasn't been able to fix all the normal tax loopholes and avoidance, why would a carbon tax suddenly be efficient?

dev_dull 7y ago
And even if WE did implement it quickly and efficiency, and it works as intended, how do you convinced the other countries responsible for the other 85% of global carbon emissions to care?
- perfunctory 7y ago
  Some other countries have already implemented carbon tax. Some as early as 1991 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax#Sweden And what about China? Well, if US introduces carbon tax, demanding the same from China would a fair move in the current trade negotiations.
- mac01021 7y ago
  1) Many of them already claim to care but won't benefit much from any policies they might implement if the US and China and India aren't going to act too. 2) The current carbon pricing bill in the House of Representatives (HR 763 [1][2]) includes border adjustments based on the carbon footprint of imported goods, which will incentivize our trading partners to implement similar policies or reduce their carbon footprints by other means. [1] https://citizensclimatelobby.org/energy-innovation-and-carbon-dividend-act/ https://citizensclimatelobby.org/energy-innovation-and-carbo... [2] https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763 https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763
- chimprich 7y ago
  How do you convince the countries responsible for the other 85% if you haven't taken steps yourself? Someone has to lead.
specialist 7y ago

cwkoss 7y ago

How about a methane-leakage tax, separately from the carbon tax? If leaked methane is ~40x worse than CO2, shouldn't it be taxed at ~40x the rate?

estsauver 7y ago
Generally speaking, a "Carbon tax" would most likely be on "Net green house gas contributions normalized to CO2 tons." Basically, I believe your objection has been thought of and is incorporated in most proposals.
- cwkoss 7y ago
  Glad to hear this is the case, thanks