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Expected return may be helpful but imo not sufficient without variance. Some cumulative jackpots are large enough that the expected return is actually profitabl
by basementcat 7y ago
Expected return may be helpful but imo not sufficient without variance. Some cumulative jackpots are large enough that the expected return is actually profitable but the probability of actually hitting the numbers is vanishingly small.
- gylterud 7y agoHowever, even with positive expectation value, you should not always play. One should first check the Kelly criterion, which is well explained Russel O’Connor’s blog post: “Do Not Play the Lottery Unless You Are a Millionaire” http://r6.ca/blog/20090522T015739Z.html http://r6.ca/blog/20090522T015739Z.html