6 ms·

The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks

84 points by mariushn 7y ago

neonate 7y ago
http://archive.is/00oTN http://archive.is/00oTN
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- mocha_nate 7y ago
  Thank you
Zigurd 7y ago
In many cases, and even more so in the most critical components, there is no second tier of suppliers. There is no market for second tier components. Using second tier components would subtract so much value that OEMs in highly competitive businesses, like Apple or Samsung, can't even consider such substitutions. So we can't "go it alone." That may be a feature, not a bug.
madengr 7y ago
Sourcing high value MLCC capacitors is a real problem. I often design something into my board, only to find out it has gone out of stock. It’s like playing whack-a-mole.
- laydn 7y ago
  We made an item in our design checklist last year to avoid high value MLCC caps whenever possible. We also made sure that no designer can add new high value MLCCs to the component library :)
- robocat 7y ago
  Good high level history of MLCC (including graph from 2017 showing shortages): https://www.ttiinc.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye/categories/passives/me-zogbi-20170602.html https://www.ttiinc.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye...
  - madengr 7y ago
    Looks like the high capacitance are the longest lead, which is what I have been finding. 10 uF and up in 0603 are hard to get.
6d6b73 7y ago
The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.
- throwayEngineer 7y ago
  Retaliation / MAD is a non trivial idea that leaders of nations should understand. I only worry of a cornered politician or spoiled Heir that would ignore this.
- kabouseng 7y ago
  That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/01/what-world-war-i-can-tell-us-about-international-commerce-and-war-today/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9a1c94e99e61 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called the “Achilles Heel” of such theories. In the decades before the war, Europe experienced unprecedented growth in international economic interdependence, both through trade and capital flows. Yet war not only broke out, but the scale of its destruction was unprecedented. Economic liberalism went into retreat. How could anyone sustain the notion that trade could prevent war when the most destructive war in history had followed an era of expansive international trade? For decades, scholars and policymakers alike pointed to World War I as providing strong evidence against the liberal case."
  - BurningFrog 7y ago
    As I recall it, Barbara Tuchman argues/describes in the Excellent "The Guns of August" that once precautionary mobilization had been ordered in one country, due to the nature of the railway system driven technology behind the logistics of the day, war was pretty much inevitable. Nobody realized "the system" had this side effect before it was started, and once the button was pressed, it was pressed... As your quote says. "economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war". https://smile.amazon.com/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-Outbreak/dp/0345476093/ https://smile.amazon.com/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-...
datenwolf 7y ago
I'm still royally $EXPLETIVE_HERE about Analog Devices buying Linear Technology a couple of months ago. AD and LTC used to be the mutual second source suppliers for critical components in lots of my projects. For almost every part AD had there was a matching counterpart in LTC's portfolio and vice versa. And often enough I could design my PCBs in a way that they even could be populated with either chip, depending on availability. Most of the ICs are still available in their AD and LTC variants, but I wonder for how long. I've similar feelings about the acquisition of National Semiconductor by Texas Instruments (primary and second source for high speed ADCs).
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- rathel 7y ago
  Ah, Analog Devices, the king of "expensive because we say so" parts.
  - datenwolf 7y ago
    If I had a lot of money (which I don't) I'd have started my very own analog semiconductor design and fab company years ago, with the intent aim to be a direct competitor in the market of high speed and precision analog and signal conversion electronics.
- sandking 7y ago
  Didn't analog and linear merge in 2016? And TI and National Semiconductor merge in 2011?
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
xxxpupugo 7y ago
> Without programs like the Linux operating system or Kubernetes, a tool to manage computing loads, Alibaba could not have become the world’s fastest-growing cloud-computing giant Kubernetes i could probably understand, but Linux under export control?
- dankohn1 7y ago
  Some useful context: https://www.cncf.io/blog/2019/06/11/cncf-openness-guidelines/ https://www.cncf.io/blog/2019/06/11/cncf-openness-guidelines...
hinkley 7y ago
Hackernews darling Backblaze talks about how they were affected when the hard drive shortage happened due to the flooding in Thailand back in '11, which is how we found out 50% of all of the hard drives in the world are produced there.

84 points by mariushn 7y ago

neonate 7y ago

http://archive.is/00oTN http://archive.is/00oTN

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
mocha_nate 7y ago
Thank you

Zigurd 7y ago

In many cases, and even more so in the most critical components, there is no second tier of suppliers. There is no market for second tier components. Using second tier components would subtract so much value that OEMs in highly competitive businesses, like Apple or Samsung, can't even consider such substitutions. So we can't "go it alone." That may be a feature, not a bug.

madengr 7y ago

Sourcing high value MLCC capacitors is a real problem. I often design something into my board, only to find out it has gone out of stock. It’s like playing whack-a-mole.

laydn 7y ago
We made an item in our design checklist last year to avoid high value MLCC caps whenever possible. We also made sure that no designer can add new high value MLCCs to the component library :)
robocat 7y ago
Good high level history of MLCC (including graph from 2017 showing shortages): https://www.ttiinc.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye/categories/passives/me-zogbi-20170602.html https://www.ttiinc.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye...
- madengr 7y ago
  Looks like the high capacitance are the longest lead, which is what I have been finding. 10 uF and up in 0603 are hard to get.

6d6b73 7y ago

The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.

throwayEngineer 7y ago
Retaliation / MAD is a non trivial idea that leaders of nations should understand. I only worry of a cornered politician or spoiled Heir that would ignore this.
kabouseng 7y ago
That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/01/what-world-war-i-can-tell-us-about-international-commerce-and-war-today/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9a1c94e99e61 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called the “Achilles Heel” of such theories. In the decades before the war, Europe experienced unprecedented growth in international economic interdependence, both through trade and capital flows. Yet war not only broke out, but the scale of its destruction was unprecedented. Economic liberalism went into retreat. How could anyone sustain the notion that trade could prevent war when the most destructive war in history had followed an era of expansive international trade? For decades, scholars and policymakers alike pointed to World War I as providing strong evidence against the liberal case."
- BurningFrog 7y ago
  As I recall it, Barbara Tuchman argues/describes in the Excellent "The Guns of August" that once precautionary mobilization had been ordered in one country, due to the nature of the railway system driven technology behind the logistics of the day, war was pretty much inevitable. Nobody realized "the system" had this side effect before it was started, and once the button was pressed, it was pressed... As your quote says. "economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war". https://smile.amazon.com/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-Outbreak/dp/0345476093/ https://smile.amazon.com/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-...

datenwolf 7y ago

I'm still royally $EXPLETIVE_HERE about Analog Devices buying Linear Technology a couple of months ago. AD and LTC used to be the mutual second source suppliers for critical components in lots of my projects. For almost every part AD had there was a matching counterpart in LTC's portfolio and vice versa. And often enough I could design my PCBs in a way that they even could be populated with either chip, depending on availability. Most of the ICs are still available in their AD and LTC variants, but I wonder for how long. I've similar feelings about the acquisition of National Semiconductor by Texas Instruments (primary and second source for high speed ADCs).

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
rathel 7y ago
Ah, Analog Devices, the king of "expensive because we say so" parts.
- datenwolf 7y ago
  If I had a lot of money (which I don't) I'd have started my very own analog semiconductor design and fab company years ago, with the intent aim to be a direct competitor in the market of high speed and precision analog and signal conversion electronics.
sandking 7y ago
Didn't analog and linear merge in 2016? And TI and National Semiconductor merge in 2011?

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

xxxpupugo 7y ago

> Without programs like the Linux operating system or Kubernetes, a tool to manage computing loads, Alibaba could not have become the world’s fastest-growing cloud-computing giant Kubernetes i could probably understand, but Linux under export control?

dankohn1 7y ago
Some useful context: https://www.cncf.io/blog/2019/06/11/cncf-openness-guidelines/ https://www.cncf.io/blog/2019/06/11/cncf-openness-guidelines...

hinkley 7y ago

Hackernews darling Backblaze talks about how they were affected when the hard drive shortage happened due to the flooding in Thailand back in '11, which is how we found out 50% of all of the hard drives in the world are produced there.