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I love myself some pessimism but tech is not slowing, instead its HN being obsessed with things that don't matter. - VR was a niche from the start, a lot of pe

I love myself some pessimism but tech is not slowing, instead its HN being obsessed with things that don't matter. - VR was a niche from the start, a lot of people were doubtful, and the people that weren't know that it 's not going to work and are already moving on. - javascript frontends are great for programmer fights, but thankfully most of the public-facing web doesnt use them, they 're irrelevant to tech's progress - Uber has nothing critical to offer to technology except an also-ran in self driving cars - kubernetes is relevant to like 100 people on earth, and doomed to be obsolete in 1 year. not critical to tech progress - AWS isn't critical to tech progress either, its bubbled because of easy startup money and lazyness. will be a good thing to see it fade away. Meanwhile , check googles TPU offerings for some progress. - Who needs a 3rd browser engine when every website looks like bootstrap? Those said, crypto is entering the plateau of productivity. It 's being held back by hostile regulation , governments and banks and AI hasn't even started , its going to be a wild ride. The web is slowly decentralizing which will be huge too

vortegne 7y ago
"javascript frontends are the great for programmer fights, but thankfully most of the web doesnt use them" Wait what? Have you like, been on the web at all? How the hell are javascript frontends not used everywhere?!
- oxfordmale 7y ago
  "AWS isn't critical either, its bubbled because of easy startup money and lazyness. will be a good thing to see it fade away" Wait what ? Have you, been on the web at all ? Ten thousands of websites are hosted, or partially hosted on AWS
  - scottlocklin 7y ago
    >Ten thousands of websites are hosted, or partially hosted on AWS Who cares? There is no reason for it to exist, and it's continued existence is arguably what OP said; that and the abject laziness of CFO types.
    - theamk 7y ago
      Sure there is -- I use it for my personal projects (so no CFO's), for example for email sending and object storage. Sure, your own server is fine when you have unlimited time; but once you want to save time (CFO: to pay less salary; personal: to have more time in life for other things), AWS makes a great deal of sense.
- buboard 7y ago
  they do have a lot of usage but barely everywhere. remember most of the web is wordpress.
  - ts0000 7y ago
    I believe WordPress, at least the admin interface, is essentially an SPA.
  - oxfordmale 7y ago
    Yes, that is true, but most WordPress sites are hosted on a cloud provider.
- tannhaeuser 7y ago
  Half the workforce in webdev has an average work experience of 5 years or less which leads to self-sustaining generational churn in this area, and a whole industry of bootcamps and fizzbuzz-style questions handed out to employers and webdevs alike. Being hellbent to deliver webapps regardless of fit is no progress, and will hit a wall as customers and regulators demand power efficiency.
  - oblio 7y ago
    > and will hit a wall as customers and regulators demand power efficiency. Sorry, but LOL. That's so low on any regulator's agenda that it wouldn't make it even as a campaign point if we were to elect a "president of IT", let alone a real-world senator or mayor or president.
    - tannhaeuser 7y ago
      Ok it might not be yet, but things are changing rapidly. In Germany, established parties are running scared right now over loosing first-voters, and push for significant change. Imagine a little icon or traffic sign or so we put on websites informing users about independently measured power effiency. Could work with privacy and network footprint as well. Hell, maybe I should put up a competition for graphic artists to design such a thing, with a 1k USD/EUR prize.
      - perl4ever 7y ago
        Are you saying there's no feedback in the sense that a website that consumes more resources costs more to the owner? I would have thought there is.
        tannhaeuser 7y ago
        I'm afraid I've not completely understood. I was talking about the power consumption for the users of the site/webapp rather than the power necessary for running web servers. But that would indeed be another important measure (and I believe power density is certainly on the radar of data center equipment buyers, but not framework users and most developers yet).
- tenebrisalietum 7y ago
  I think what was meant is that phone apps are taking over. These use the web but not Javascript.
luckylion 7y ago
I still believe in VR, but driven by porn, not games or productivity. That niche seems to be doing very well and has been a technological driver more than once. Basically everybody that I've talked to that was skeptical and tried it was a believer after they've tried it. When that goes mainstream, you've got a very solid market with lots of consumers. It won't be the $1500 + a high end PC version of VR though.
- buboard 7y ago
  thats not real VR though, and a high tech headset sounds like an overkill for that. You can place 4 screens around your head for similar and more cofortable effect :)
  - luckylion 7y ago
    Not really, no. Stereo vision is the magic, not just being able to see what's to your left or right.
    - buboard 7y ago
      Oh ok. I m strabismic and cant see that
    - slfnflctd 7y ago
      > Stereo vision is the magic Absolutely 100% true, I have experienced this first hand. Unfortunately, many of the videos they try to promote on VR systems were shot with a single lens and are just "2D in surround"-- these come across as flat and uninteresting to me, especially after I saw videos with actual depth. In those cases I would be happier with a monitor. But the depth & immersion is completely worth putting a headset on for me. Also, on the surface it looks like initial Oculus Quest sales are going well. Sold out at my local Best Buy and showing 1-3 week lead times everywhere else (including direct order). Could be artificial, but time will tell. I was already satisfied with the GearVR on an older Samsung Galaxy, and initial reports are that the Quest is a significantly noticeable improvement.
jhanschoo 7y ago
it's hard to take this comment seriously... > javascript frontends are the great for programmer fights, but thankfully most of the web doesnt use them By frequency of retrieval, JS frameworks are the majority of websites served. > kubernetes is relevant to like 100 people on earth Even if it's not k8s, most companies benefit from a container orchestration system. > crypto is entering the plateau of productivity cryptocurrency will always be a niche product until it can provide the same services and assurances that banks do. Most people overwhelmingly prefer the availability and security from carelessness, petty fraud, and mismanagement that banks provide that they even pay for these services, than the not-entirely-complete protection from state actors that crypto provides. That's what holding crypto back, not regulation.
- buboard 7y ago
  > the same services and assurances that banks Cryptocurrency is meant to replace currencies and central banks, not banks (retail). Banks are institutions built on top of currencies (there are a lot of companies doing that with cryptos btw).
  - Nasrudith 7y ago
    I'll bite - how the hell could cryptocurrency replace central banks? To me it seems like the same logical flaw of any the Unabomber thinking sending mail bombs could shut down all industrial civilization. It not only doesn't make sense but it has no logical connection. It is less logical than thinking one could conquer the US with an army of bowmen on horseback - it makes no sense given the massive disadvantages but an army can conquer at least. Their actual roles of currencies and central banks are "the medium needed to pay taxes" and pegging the currency ratio to optimize for the economy. The closest replacement I could see being viable would be the central bank issuing their own as an option and perhaps allowing "instanciating" and "deinstancing" to physical currency.
    - buboard 7y ago
      https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050715/can-bitcoin-kill-central-banks.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050715/can-b...
DebtDeflation 7y ago
>AI hasn't even started AI/ML is actually everywhere already. To the point where most people don't even recognize it as AL/ML. The problem is that it's not the image of AI that has been sold to the public and even the tech generalist community by books like The Singularity and Superintelligence.
- buboard 7y ago
  we are only seeing some first applications that are market-ready. Most of the research in AI is in things that are not ready to market but they mostly look promising, like AI diagnosis, image / video / sound /animation generation, signal analysis, various unsupervised learning methods etc.

vortegne 7y ago

"javascript frontends are the great for programmer fights, but thankfully most of the web doesnt use them" Wait what? Have you like, been on the web at all? How the hell are javascript frontends not used everywhere?!

oxfordmale 7y ago
"AWS isn't critical either, its bubbled because of easy startup money and lazyness. will be a good thing to see it fade away" Wait what ? Have you, been on the web at all ? Ten thousands of websites are hosted, or partially hosted on AWS
- scottlocklin 7y ago
  >Ten thousands of websites are hosted, or partially hosted on AWS Who cares? There is no reason for it to exist, and it's continued existence is arguably what OP said; that and the abject laziness of CFO types.
  - theamk 7y ago
    Sure there is -- I use it for my personal projects (so no CFO's), for example for email sending and object storage. Sure, your own server is fine when you have unlimited time; but once you want to save time (CFO: to pay less salary; personal: to have more time in life for other things), AWS makes a great deal of sense.
buboard 7y ago
they do have a lot of usage but barely everywhere. remember most of the web is wordpress.
- ts0000 7y ago
  I believe WordPress, at least the admin interface, is essentially an SPA.
- oxfordmale 7y ago
  Yes, that is true, but most WordPress sites are hosted on a cloud provider.
tannhaeuser 7y ago
Half the workforce in webdev has an average work experience of 5 years or less which leads to self-sustaining generational churn in this area, and a whole industry of bootcamps and fizzbuzz-style questions handed out to employers and webdevs alike. Being hellbent to deliver webapps regardless of fit is no progress, and will hit a wall as customers and regulators demand power efficiency.
- oblio 7y ago
  > and will hit a wall as customers and regulators demand power efficiency. Sorry, but LOL. That's so low on any regulator's agenda that it wouldn't make it even as a campaign point if we were to elect a "president of IT", let alone a real-world senator or mayor or president.
  - tannhaeuser 7y ago
    Ok it might not be yet, but things are changing rapidly. In Germany, established parties are running scared right now over loosing first-voters, and push for significant change. Imagine a little icon or traffic sign or so we put on websites informing users about independently measured power effiency. Could work with privacy and network footprint as well. Hell, maybe I should put up a competition for graphic artists to design such a thing, with a 1k USD/EUR prize.
    - perl4ever 7y ago
      Are you saying there's no feedback in the sense that a website that consumes more resources costs more to the owner? I would have thought there is.
      - tannhaeuser 7y ago
        I'm afraid I've not completely understood. I was talking about the power consumption for the users of the site/webapp rather than the power necessary for running web servers. But that would indeed be another important measure (and I believe power density is certainly on the radar of data center equipment buyers, but not framework users and most developers yet).
tenebrisalietum 7y ago
I think what was meant is that phone apps are taking over. These use the web but not Javascript.

luckylion 7y ago

I still believe in VR, but driven by porn, not games or productivity. That niche seems to be doing very well and has been a technological driver more than once. Basically everybody that I've talked to that was skeptical and tried it was a believer after they've tried it. When that goes mainstream, you've got a very solid market with lots of consumers. It won't be the $1500 + a high end PC version of VR though.

buboard 7y ago
thats not real VR though, and a high tech headset sounds like an overkill for that. You can place 4 screens around your head for similar and more cofortable effect :)
- luckylion 7y ago
  Not really, no. Stereo vision is the magic, not just being able to see what's to your left or right.
  - buboard 7y ago
    Oh ok. I m strabismic and cant see that
  - slfnflctd 7y ago
    > Stereo vision is the magic Absolutely 100% true, I have experienced this first hand. Unfortunately, many of the videos they try to promote on VR systems were shot with a single lens and are just "2D in surround"-- these come across as flat and uninteresting to me, especially after I saw videos with actual depth. In those cases I would be happier with a monitor. But the depth & immersion is completely worth putting a headset on for me. Also, on the surface it looks like initial Oculus Quest sales are going well. Sold out at my local Best Buy and showing 1-3 week lead times everywhere else (including direct order). Could be artificial, but time will tell. I was already satisfied with the GearVR on an older Samsung Galaxy, and initial reports are that the Quest is a significantly noticeable improvement.

jhanschoo 7y ago

it's hard to take this comment seriously... > javascript frontends are the great for programmer fights, but thankfully most of the web doesnt use them By frequency of retrieval, JS frameworks are the majority of websites served. > kubernetes is relevant to like 100 people on earth Even if it's not k8s, most companies benefit from a container orchestration system. > crypto is entering the plateau of productivity cryptocurrency will always be a niche product until it can provide the same services and assurances that banks do. Most people overwhelmingly prefer the availability and security from carelessness, petty fraud, and mismanagement that banks provide that they even pay for these services, than the not-entirely-complete protection from state actors that crypto provides. That's what holding crypto back, not regulation.

buboard 7y ago
> the same services and assurances that banks Cryptocurrency is meant to replace currencies and central banks, not banks (retail). Banks are institutions built on top of currencies (there are a lot of companies doing that with cryptos btw).
- Nasrudith 7y ago
  I'll bite - how the hell could cryptocurrency replace central banks? To me it seems like the same logical flaw of any the Unabomber thinking sending mail bombs could shut down all industrial civilization. It not only doesn't make sense but it has no logical connection. It is less logical than thinking one could conquer the US with an army of bowmen on horseback - it makes no sense given the massive disadvantages but an army can conquer at least. Their actual roles of currencies and central banks are "the medium needed to pay taxes" and pegging the currency ratio to optimize for the economy. The closest replacement I could see being viable would be the central bank issuing their own as an option and perhaps allowing "instanciating" and "deinstancing" to physical currency.
  - buboard 7y ago
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050715/can-bitcoin-kill-central-banks.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050715/can-b...

DebtDeflation 7y ago

>AI hasn't even started AI/ML is actually everywhere already. To the point where most people don't even recognize it as AL/ML. The problem is that it's not the image of AI that has been sold to the public and even the tech generalist community by books like The Singularity and Superintelligence.

buboard 7y ago
we are only seeing some first applications that are market-ready. Most of the research in AI is in things that are not ready to market but they mostly look promising, like AI diagnosis, image / video / sound /animation generation, signal analysis, various unsupervised learning methods etc.