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The assumption there that the capacity for creativity in China comparable to that in the west. I wonder firstly about the extent to which creativity can exist

by yarg 7y ago

The assumption there that the capacity for creativity in China comparable to that in the west. I wonder firstly about the extent to which creativity can exist to a societally significant extent under an increasingly authoritarian government. I also wonder about the extent to which the Chinese creative class was purged in the cultural revolution, and what impact that may have had on the societal capacity for creativity. Without deeper investigation, I don't think it's reasonable to conclude that modern China has (or does not have) a capacity for creativity that will allow them to outpace a genuinely liberal and freely educated society.

riffraff 7y ago
Let's say China has 20 times less creativity than the west. This means still more creativity than most western countries because of their size.
- wolco 7y ago
  Society may not support that creativity in terms of production output while in the west you have creative multipliers.
- yarg 7y ago
  That's really not how statistics works though. Imagine a pair of overlapping normal distributions (https://www.google.com/search?q=overlapping+normal+distributions https://www.google.com/search?q=overlapping+normal+distribut...), the ratio between the two is far from fixed, and the further of centre you go, the greater the discrepancy. My suspicion is that an authoritarian regime is likely to offset the centre of the creativity distribution. But that's not the full extent of what I suspect of the Chinese population's distribution in terms of creativity. My thoughts are that it's more likely to be a partially truncated normal distribution, with a rapid and significant drop off at the high end of the creativity spectrum. This is all pure conjecture, but if either possibility is true it would be significantly restricting to Chinese creativity, and if both are true it would be devastating (especially in terms of their ability to compete).
  - yarg 7y ago
    Further off centre.
  - whoevercares 7y ago
    Have you ever attended top tier AI/CV/graphics conf? You should go once
- yarg 7y ago
  You are right however, that China does have a significant advantage in terms of scale due to their population - and this is an advantage compounded by low pay and a lack of worker rights.
jotm 7y ago
So all the Soviet engineers, scientists and mathematicians were just stealing from the other genuinely liberal and freely educated societies? What about the Japanese?
- yarg 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessity_is_the_mother_of_invention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessity_is_the_mother_of_inv... I'm not saying that the possible factors that I'm talking about are the only ones at play, I'm arguing that their potential for impact is significant enough that they cannot simply be discounted. Also, regarding Soviet success, they had a tendency to throw shit at the wall to see what would stick (https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/05/02/134597833/cosmonaut-crashed-into-earth-crying-in-rage https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/05/02/134597833/c...) to an extent well in excess of what would be acceptable in a less callous society. (Not that America was innocent in this regard - https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_Colloquium1012.html https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_...)

by yarg 7y ago

riffraff 7y ago

Let's say China has 20 times less creativity than the west. This means still more creativity than most western countries because of their size.

wolco 7y ago
Society may not support that creativity in terms of production output while in the west you have creative multipliers.
yarg 7y ago
That's really not how statistics works though. Imagine a pair of overlapping normal distributions (https://www.google.com/search?q=overlapping+normal+distributions https://www.google.com/search?q=overlapping+normal+distribut...), the ratio between the two is far from fixed, and the further of centre you go, the greater the discrepancy. My suspicion is that an authoritarian regime is likely to offset the centre of the creativity distribution. But that's not the full extent of what I suspect of the Chinese population's distribution in terms of creativity. My thoughts are that it's more likely to be a partially truncated normal distribution, with a rapid and significant drop off at the high end of the creativity spectrum. This is all pure conjecture, but if either possibility is true it would be significantly restricting to Chinese creativity, and if both are true it would be devastating (especially in terms of their ability to compete).
- yarg 7y ago
  Further off centre.
- whoevercares 7y ago
  Have you ever attended top tier AI/CV/graphics conf? You should go once
yarg 7y ago
You are right however, that China does have a significant advantage in terms of scale due to their population - and this is an advantage compounded by low pay and a lack of worker rights.

jotm 7y ago

So all the Soviet engineers, scientists and mathematicians were just stealing from the other genuinely liberal and freely educated societies? What about the Japanese?

yarg 7y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessity_is_the_mother_of_invention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessity_is_the_mother_of_inv... I'm not saying that the possible factors that I'm talking about are the only ones at play, I'm arguing that their potential for impact is significant enough that they cannot simply be discounted. Also, regarding Soviet success, they had a tendency to throw shit at the wall to see what would stick (https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/05/02/134597833/cosmonaut-crashed-into-earth-crying-in-rage https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/05/02/134597833/c...) to an extent well in excess of what would be acceptable in a less callous society. (Not that America was innocent in this regard - https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_Colloquium1012.html https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_...)