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Frankly, the American Dream of retirement and ‘golden years’ has long passed. The 2008 crisis wiped out everything people I know had for retirement. I’d rathe

Frankly, the American Dream of retirement and ‘golden years’ has long passed. The 2008 crisis wiped out everything people I know had for retirement. I’d rather save my cash than put it into another person’s hands hoping for modest interest returns at the risk of knowing we’re just around the corner from another 2008-like crisis. I’m working to make something for my wife after I’m gone. I’d be a horrible retiree anyway. Still to much of a kid at heart.

madengr 7y ago
My 401k is now worth about 5x what it was in 2008, mostly due to compounding, which is why I don’t understand “people losing everything”. They would of had to sell it all at the bottom of the market.
- thekyle 7y ago
  > They would of had to sell it all at the bottom of the market. Yup, that's pretty much it. Unfortunately many people don't have the stomach for the market and end up selling at the worst possible time trying to avoid additional losses. After all, if everyone was totally rational and held through downturns then market crashes would largely be eliminated.
- notacoward 7y ago
  2008 to today is eleven years. Please look at the immediately previous eleven-year period. The 2008 crisis left the S&P down compared to where it had been in 1997. How cheerful would you be about retirement if your own 401(k) returns had been negative over the last eleven years. What if a 2008-like event happened just before you had planned to retire, or just before/after other major financial events such as buying/selling a house or kids hitting college or someone getting sick? It's great that your prime savings years have coincided with an exceptional run-up. I also have been fortunate. The difference seems to be that I don't look down my nose people who lacked perfect flexibility wrt when to enter or leave the market. I have reasons to believe I've been pretty smart about my savings and investments, but I still admit the role that pure luck has played.
wutbrodo 7y ago
> . I’d rather save my cash than put it into another person’s hands hoping for modest interest returns at the risk of knowing we’re just around the corner from another 2008-like crisis. I'm not sure I understand; if you had a basic passive portfolio during the 2008 financial crisis, you did pretty well for yourself: crashing rates meant that your bond-heavy portfolio increased in value. On top of that, rebalancing the longer-term portion of your allocation into stocks at the nadir means you got a ground floor ticket to a historically good bull market. All of this is with the most conservative, mechanical, low-touch investing strategy possible. I might be misunderstanding something about the above, but failing that: what is your actual concern about another 2008-crisis-like event?

madengr 7y ago

My 401k is now worth about 5x what it was in 2008, mostly due to compounding, which is why I don’t understand “people losing everything”. They would of had to sell it all at the bottom of the market.

thekyle 7y ago
> They would of had to sell it all at the bottom of the market. Yup, that's pretty much it. Unfortunately many people don't have the stomach for the market and end up selling at the worst possible time trying to avoid additional losses. After all, if everyone was totally rational and held through downturns then market crashes would largely be eliminated.
notacoward 7y ago
2008 to today is eleven years. Please look at the immediately previous eleven-year period. The 2008 crisis left the S&P down compared to where it had been in 1997. How cheerful would you be about retirement if your own 401(k) returns had been negative over the last eleven years. What if a 2008-like event happened just before you had planned to retire, or just before/after other major financial events such as buying/selling a house or kids hitting college or someone getting sick? It's great that your prime savings years have coincided with an exceptional run-up. I also have been fortunate. The difference seems to be that I don't look down my nose people who lacked perfect flexibility wrt when to enter or leave the market. I have reasons to believe I've been pretty smart about my savings and investments, but I still admit the role that pure luck has played.

wutbrodo 7y ago

> . I’d rather save my cash than put it into another person’s hands hoping for modest interest returns at the risk of knowing we’re just around the corner from another 2008-like crisis. I'm not sure I understand; if you had a basic passive portfolio during the 2008 financial crisis, you did pretty well for yourself: crashing rates meant that your bond-heavy portfolio increased in value. On top of that, rebalancing the longer-term portion of your allocation into stocks at the nadir means you got a ground floor ticket to a historically good bull market. All of this is with the most conservative, mechanical, low-touch investing strategy possible. I might be misunderstanding something about the above, but failing that: what is your actual concern about another 2008-crisis-like event?