4 ms·

Why say Paul Solotshi instead of Paul Le Roux, a name everyone is far more familiar with? None of the evidence presented was compelling. It was circumstantial

Why say Paul Solotshi instead of Paul Le Roux, a name everyone is far more familiar with? None of the evidence presented was compelling. It was circumstantial at best. Save yourself the five minutes it takes to read this article.

the_watcher 7y ago
Seriously. The author apparently considers "both are familiar with payments" evidence.
- dmix 7y ago
  What is the "new evidence" mentioned in the headline?
  - the_watcher 7y ago
    The only "new" bit of verifiable information is that a link to Paul Le Roux's Wikipedia page appears unredacted in a document presented by Wright in which most other specific names are redacted because he claimed their exposure could put him at risk (implication being that he helped put criminals away). Everything else just starts from "Le Roux may be Satoshi" and employs conspiracy theorist logic to get there ("He uses an alias that kind of sounds a little like Satoshi - Solotshi. This suggests that he IS Satoshi.")
    - Hasknewbie 7y ago
      As ridiculous as it is, that's still more researched than that idiotic Newsweek article...
    - mthoms 7y ago
      Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. Both TrueCrypt and Bitcoin share similar ideologies and both are extraordinary ambitious feats of (anonymous) C++ engineering. I'm inclined to think there aren't many people in the world who possess the skills necessary and at the same time the need to preserve absolute anonymity at all costs. The number of (non governmental) people in the world who intersect those two things really can't be more than a handful. To be clear, I'm not saying I believe all this - just that there is a fair amount more to it than similar aliases. I'd be interested to see some analysis of the C++ code in both projects to see if they share any idiosyncrasies.
      - dmix 7y ago
        Wouldn't it be easy to compare the TrueCrypt C++ code with Bitcoins? Programming a project of that size by a solo developer must have similar patterns and quirks. I don't think anyone is capable of faking that for long unless they tried to make it as generic as possible`.
      - AdmiralAsshat 7y ago
        > Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. The only link that the article mentions is that Satoshi used TrueCrypt. So what? TrueCrypt was the gold standard for encrypted drives which everyone in the tinfoil hat community used until it shut down. It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone.
        mthoms 7y ago
        The article (and my comment) suggests a possible link because both projects (1) are so advanced that only a very elite calibre of developer could have produced them; (2) used the same language; (3) had similar ideologies/goals; and (4) had an author who insisted on complete anonymity. It's no smoking gun but it's certainly interesting. >It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone. Ridiculous. Having an iPhone is exceedingly common. Having the above mentioned qualities in common, while not unheard of, is certainly rare.
- playeren 7y ago
  Oh my god. I AM SATOSHI!? I have read a bit about Le Roux over the years, and I got an impression of someone who always seeks the short term benefit (albeit often a quite sizeable benefit) over a long term benefit. Among droves of other crazy things, the guy was trying to set himself up as a warlord in Somalia, allegedly aiming to provide mercenary services to highest bidder. It's really hard for me to reconcile someone like that with the thoughtful debate SN dealt in. But that's mostly my biases talking, and less an objective analysis.
bena 7y ago
"Circumstantial" does not mean "weak". Circumstantial evidence is often strong enough and compelling enough to determine court cases. Circumstantial evidence is often better than direct evidence. Circumstantial evidence: Stuff like DNA, fingerprints Direct evidence: Bob's memory of the event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence But please, continue using "the evidence is circumstantial" as if it means that it's not good enough.
- N_trglctc_joe 7y ago
  This is a really good point. Direct evidence of Satoshi's identity can only be in the form of someone claiming to be him, and that just wouldn't be credible. Circumstantial evidence is all we're going to get; even somebody spending Satoshi's BTC wouldn't be direct evidence since, as the article points out, someone else could have obtained (and be in the process of cracking) his hard drives.
  - bena 7y ago
    People just way too often ape legal procedural shows where people will exclaim that "all this evidence is circumstantial" as if that's an actual problem. You can say that about most evidence. Even the classic "smoking gun" metaphor is an example of circumstantial evidence. It's just a way for people to dismiss a claim without actually having to argue against a claim. If the evidence is tenuous or weak, explain why. For instance, the fact that Solotshi is similar to Satoshi. That's just dumb. If you're going to pick a pseudonym to hide your identity for the long term, you don't pick one that's just a variation of your name. However, if every other piece of evidence was much better, then dude just picked a bad pseudonym. And we also have to consider that a lot of weak signals can become a strong signal. Like the name thing is what I'd call an extremely weak signal. But if there's an overwhelming flood of such weak signals, then it starts looking much more likely.
- michaelterryio 7y ago
  Yes! And eye witness testimony is often terrible. It's disappointing that circumstantial evidence gets such a bad rap. Very unlikely things happen all the time. But beyond a certain level of unlikeliness, combined with a strong motive, it has to be enough. And of course in practice everyone gets this because cases are decided every day by this implicit understanding. Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk. -- Henry David Thoreau
strikelaserclaw 7y ago
Damn dude, that guy is like Walter White.
brokenkebab 7y ago
Because SatoSHI, SolotSHI - we found him! CASE CLOSED!
- netsharc 7y ago
  Wasn't that a Newsweek conclusion? They found some guy named Nakamoto and concluded so. Yay Journalism! https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-231242 https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-2...

the_watcher 7y ago

Seriously. The author apparently considers "both are familiar with payments" evidence.

dmix 7y ago
What is the "new evidence" mentioned in the headline?
- the_watcher 7y ago
  The only "new" bit of verifiable information is that a link to Paul Le Roux's Wikipedia page appears unredacted in a document presented by Wright in which most other specific names are redacted because he claimed their exposure could put him at risk (implication being that he helped put criminals away). Everything else just starts from "Le Roux may be Satoshi" and employs conspiracy theorist logic to get there ("He uses an alias that kind of sounds a little like Satoshi - Solotshi. This suggests that he IS Satoshi.")
  - Hasknewbie 7y ago
    As ridiculous as it is, that's still more researched than that idiotic Newsweek article...
  - mthoms 7y ago
    Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. Both TrueCrypt and Bitcoin share similar ideologies and both are extraordinary ambitious feats of (anonymous) C++ engineering. I'm inclined to think there aren't many people in the world who possess the skills necessary and at the same time the need to preserve absolute anonymity at all costs. The number of (non governmental) people in the world who intersect those two things really can't be more than a handful. To be clear, I'm not saying I believe all this - just that there is a fair amount more to it than similar aliases. I'd be interested to see some analysis of the C++ code in both projects to see if they share any idiosyncrasies.
    - dmix 7y ago
      Wouldn't it be easy to compare the TrueCrypt C++ code with Bitcoins? Programming a project of that size by a solo developer must have similar patterns and quirks. I don't think anyone is capable of faking that for long unless they tried to make it as generic as possible`.
    - AdmiralAsshat 7y ago
      > Well, the TrueCrypt link (if proven) is very interesting. The only link that the article mentions is that Satoshi used TrueCrypt. So what? TrueCrypt was the gold standard for encrypted drives which everyone in the tinfoil hat community used until it shut down. It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone.
      - mthoms 7y ago
        The article (and my comment) suggests a possible link because both projects (1) are so advanced that only a very elite calibre of developer could have produced them; (2) used the same language; (3) had similar ideologies/goals; and (4) had an author who insisted on complete anonymity. It's no smoking gun but it's certainly interesting. >It would be like trying to draw a link between a real person and a pseudonymous identity because both of them were known to have an iPhone. Ridiculous. Having an iPhone is exceedingly common. Having the above mentioned qualities in common, while not unheard of, is certainly rare.
playeren 7y ago
Oh my god. I AM SATOSHI!? I have read a bit about Le Roux over the years, and I got an impression of someone who always seeks the short term benefit (albeit often a quite sizeable benefit) over a long term benefit. Among droves of other crazy things, the guy was trying to set himself up as a warlord in Somalia, allegedly aiming to provide mercenary services to highest bidder. It's really hard for me to reconcile someone like that with the thoughtful debate SN dealt in. But that's mostly my biases talking, and less an objective analysis.

bena 7y ago

"Circumstantial" does not mean "weak". Circumstantial evidence is often strong enough and compelling enough to determine court cases. Circumstantial evidence is often better than direct evidence. Circumstantial evidence: Stuff like DNA, fingerprints Direct evidence: Bob's memory of the event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence But please, continue using "the evidence is circumstantial" as if it means that it's not good enough.

N_trglctc_joe 7y ago
This is a really good point. Direct evidence of Satoshi's identity can only be in the form of someone claiming to be him, and that just wouldn't be credible. Circumstantial evidence is all we're going to get; even somebody spending Satoshi's BTC wouldn't be direct evidence since, as the article points out, someone else could have obtained (and be in the process of cracking) his hard drives.
- bena 7y ago
  People just way too often ape legal procedural shows where people will exclaim that "all this evidence is circumstantial" as if that's an actual problem. You can say that about most evidence. Even the classic "smoking gun" metaphor is an example of circumstantial evidence. It's just a way for people to dismiss a claim without actually having to argue against a claim. If the evidence is tenuous or weak, explain why. For instance, the fact that Solotshi is similar to Satoshi. That's just dumb. If you're going to pick a pseudonym to hide your identity for the long term, you don't pick one that's just a variation of your name. However, if every other piece of evidence was much better, then dude just picked a bad pseudonym. And we also have to consider that a lot of weak signals can become a strong signal. Like the name thing is what I'd call an extremely weak signal. But if there's an overwhelming flood of such weak signals, then it starts looking much more likely.
michaelterryio 7y ago
Yes! And eye witness testimony is often terrible. It's disappointing that circumstantial evidence gets such a bad rap. Very unlikely things happen all the time. But beyond a certain level of unlikeliness, combined with a strong motive, it has to be enough. And of course in practice everyone gets this because cases are decided every day by this implicit understanding. Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk. -- Henry David Thoreau

strikelaserclaw 7y ago

Damn dude, that guy is like Walter White.

brokenkebab 7y ago

Because SatoSHI, SolotSHI - we found him! CASE CLOSED!

netsharc 7y ago
Wasn't that a Newsweek conclusion? They found some guy named Nakamoto and concluded so. Yay Journalism! https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-231242 https://www.newsweek.com/newsweeks-statement-bitcoin-story-2...