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but my guess is that the period of china stealing ip (which is an obvious fact that has happened over decades) is only temporary in the grand scheme of things i

but my guess is that the period of china stealing ip (which is an obvious fact that has happened over decades) is only temporary in the grand scheme of things in that it won't last forever. this is because china has stolen ideas, concepts, and direct designs to catch up but is now in many areas surpassing product design in the u.s. so this idea that u.s. design and development > chinese design and development won't last and is already breaking down. thus, the u.s. is in real danger since china has all the manufacturing ability. so yea, china has stolen and ignored ip laws, but that soon won't even matter. that's at least my prediction. i have a friend in a u.s. technology company, and they simply cannot beat the chinese version of their product in both price and features despite being the creator of the product category decades ahead of others. the chinese companies copied the design but have now exceeded it, so the u.s. product does very poorly in china. so what it sounds like to me is that the u.s. sees the writing on the wall, which is all due to their own actions and corporate greed over the past few decades, and so now is making a hail mary in a trade war. it doesn't seem like a good idea when it likely won't be long until china has the upper hand. so it seems it basically comes down to trump taking his poor understanding of dynamics and abusing the u.s. government's and people's need for a "war".

mc32 7y ago
(Almost) Any country can be a leader in some area even if they are not a superpower. Germany, Japan, UK, France, Taiwan: they all have leadership in some technologies even though they are small compared to the US and China. Should they throw their hand up and say, guys and gals of the world, we can’t keep up with you in all areas, please, come take our IP! I think the answer is obvious.
- nikofeyn 7y ago
  i am not for sure i understand. i was saying that it seems to me that the u.s. can't always rely on the argument and stance that "oh, it's just china making cheap copies". it seems that china has directly stolen and continues to do so, which is a major problem of course, but they will eventually have no need to. so the problem is worse than just needing to stop china from stealing. the problem is that it's possible the u.s. will be left behind because of our unconcentrated effort versus the chinese's highly concentrated economic approach. my simple understanding is that u.s. corporation's greed and other u.s. economic factors caused a move of nearly all manufacturing to china and now everyone's saying "hey, wait a minute".
  - mc32 7y ago
    I see. But still, even if they are a leader in most areas, they will not be leaders in every area. If they play fair, then we can learn and cooperate. The answer to our losing leadership to them isn’t to capitulate and continue allowing undeterred advantage, it’s, as you imply, to on-shore some of those lost skills. It’s not impossible, but it takes concerted effort by government, industry and citizens (who care about environmental impact, working conditions, fellow citizens).
  - filesystem 7y ago
    I may misunderstand what you mean. Are you saying that you believe China will stop producing inferior (made as cheap as possible) copies of desirable goods and marking the price up? Why would they stop? They have already proven that they have no interest in acting in good faith, and in the absence of morals, this practice is obviously much more profitable than innovation. China now has all the capital & knowledge required to become the worldwide leader in innovation. However, their entire industrial culture was built to the specifications of "making cheap copies". It will be interesting to see what the side effects of those origins will be for China in the long run.
    - marnett 7y ago
      China has manufacturing facilities and capacity that far exceed any other nation. This includes making high end products based on foreign designed specifications (I.e. iPhone). GP is saying that it is not if, but when, China will have attained the baseline IP to spend remaining efforts on exceeding foreign innovation and using their domestic manufacturing capabilities to deliver on them. Currently the “trade war” just attacks Chinese companies that have done exactly what I described above (Huawei being a primary example) - claiming cybercrimes, arresting executives, slamming lawsuits, barring imports, etc. Manufacturing is not a switch that can be turned back. America had severe oversight when allowing our manufacturing capacity to head south to Mexico and east to China. We are pretending the trade war is the US “sticking it” to China. But in reality China has all the cards in this war - the US is bluffing to its citizens; the economy of the coming decades will be on China’s terms.
AimForTheBushes 7y ago
If the writing is on the wall, then us diversifying the supply chains completely out of China wouldn't matter, right?
siffland 7y ago
It will not stop, as you have said, they copied and improved. I have said it before, the Chinese are excellent engineers, but they lack in originality. So they NEED the rest of the world to make original stuff they can copy and improve upon this. Again this is not taking away from the fact they have brillant people, it is just what they do. As for quality, buy something as simple as a geniune arduino and buy a Chinese knockoff. Which is more reliable. I have a ton of knockoffs and i'd say about 50% fail in a few months (plus they arrive with flux coating the bottom, some wont even work until it is cleaned). The few geniune ones i have purchased are still rolling along. I find this with a lot of their cheap knockoffs (yet i still buy them.......).
- tepidandroid 7y ago
  But see, this is a great microcosm for the macro situation. Correct me if I am wrong, but you are purchasing items which you know to be knockoffs because they are cheap. You don't want to pay the full amount for the genuine article and yet you (rightfully) criticize the low quality and longevity of the knockoffs. Aren't you getting exactly what you paid for?

mc32 7y ago

(Almost) Any country can be a leader in some area even if they are not a superpower. Germany, Japan, UK, France, Taiwan: they all have leadership in some technologies even though they are small compared to the US and China. Should they throw their hand up and say, guys and gals of the world, we can’t keep up with you in all areas, please, come take our IP! I think the answer is obvious.

nikofeyn 7y ago
i am not for sure i understand. i was saying that it seems to me that the u.s. can't always rely on the argument and stance that "oh, it's just china making cheap copies". it seems that china has directly stolen and continues to do so, which is a major problem of course, but they will eventually have no need to. so the problem is worse than just needing to stop china from stealing. the problem is that it's possible the u.s. will be left behind because of our unconcentrated effort versus the chinese's highly concentrated economic approach. my simple understanding is that u.s. corporation's greed and other u.s. economic factors caused a move of nearly all manufacturing to china and now everyone's saying "hey, wait a minute".
- mc32 7y ago
  I see. But still, even if they are a leader in most areas, they will not be leaders in every area. If they play fair, then we can learn and cooperate. The answer to our losing leadership to them isn’t to capitulate and continue allowing undeterred advantage, it’s, as you imply, to on-shore some of those lost skills. It’s not impossible, but it takes concerted effort by government, industry and citizens (who care about environmental impact, working conditions, fellow citizens).
- filesystem 7y ago
  I may misunderstand what you mean. Are you saying that you believe China will stop producing inferior (made as cheap as possible) copies of desirable goods and marking the price up? Why would they stop? They have already proven that they have no interest in acting in good faith, and in the absence of morals, this practice is obviously much more profitable than innovation. China now has all the capital & knowledge required to become the worldwide leader in innovation. However, their entire industrial culture was built to the specifications of "making cheap copies". It will be interesting to see what the side effects of those origins will be for China in the long run.
  - marnett 7y ago
    China has manufacturing facilities and capacity that far exceed any other nation. This includes making high end products based on foreign designed specifications (I.e. iPhone). GP is saying that it is not if, but when, China will have attained the baseline IP to spend remaining efforts on exceeding foreign innovation and using their domestic manufacturing capabilities to deliver on them. Currently the “trade war” just attacks Chinese companies that have done exactly what I described above (Huawei being a primary example) - claiming cybercrimes, arresting executives, slamming lawsuits, barring imports, etc. Manufacturing is not a switch that can be turned back. America had severe oversight when allowing our manufacturing capacity to head south to Mexico and east to China. We are pretending the trade war is the US “sticking it” to China. But in reality China has all the cards in this war - the US is bluffing to its citizens; the economy of the coming decades will be on China’s terms.

AimForTheBushes 7y ago

If the writing is on the wall, then us diversifying the supply chains completely out of China wouldn't matter, right?

siffland 7y ago

It will not stop, as you have said, they copied and improved. I have said it before, the Chinese are excellent engineers, but they lack in originality. So they NEED the rest of the world to make original stuff they can copy and improve upon this. Again this is not taking away from the fact they have brillant people, it is just what they do. As for quality, buy something as simple as a geniune arduino and buy a Chinese knockoff. Which is more reliable. I have a ton of knockoffs and i'd say about 50% fail in a few months (plus they arrive with flux coating the bottom, some wont even work until it is cleaned). The few geniune ones i have purchased are still rolling along. I find this with a lot of their cheap knockoffs (yet i still buy them.......).

tepidandroid 7y ago
But see, this is a great microcosm for the macro situation. Correct me if I am wrong, but you are purchasing items which you know to be knockoffs because they are cheap. You don't want to pay the full amount for the genuine article and yet you (rightfully) criticize the low quality and longevity of the knockoffs. Aren't you getting exactly what you paid for?