3 ms·

I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what

by spyspy 7y ago

I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what I see as an expensive niche product.

bstar77 7y ago
You made a pretty inflammatory comment: "the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work". He's just explaining that there is a market. It's probably an enthusiast market as well as wealthy people that can make this an impulse buy, but the opportunity for growth is to convince a much more general market to finance the bike and justify the monthly costs like they do their cable/streaming bills. I understand you didn't want to interview for the job, I get not wanting to work on a product you don't care for... I just think your other comments made little sense and seemed more inflammatory than anything.
- spyspy 7y ago
  Sorry it wasn't meant to be inflammatory, brevity is hard. But has any fitness fad ever threatened the cable industry? I don't see anyone cancelling their netflix subscription in order to afford this thing. But based on all the responses claiming there's "tons" of market I'm still inclined to disagree. The market seems to just be people already really into cycling (either outdoors or spin classes) and are currently pouring money into those hobbies. Maybe it's a wildly bigger market than I imagine but if I was putting my money on it, and we're talking about an IPO here, I'd say that Peloton's best growth will soon be behind them and they're trying to cash out while they can.
  - bstar77 7y ago
    I wasn't suggesting that people cancel netflix or cable, I was just saying that this expense could fall into a similar category. I personally am willing to spend a certain amount of money towards my health each month if it's effective. "The market seems to just be people already really into cycling" This is not true, I see tons of people that are just getting into spin/cycling for the first time. I think the primary customers are people that don't mind using a bike, need to be motivated and have busy lives. We'll see what happens, but I think there's a lot of growth to be had, especially if they try and compete with Tonal.
bitwize 7y ago
Don't worry. Once the bike is a few years old they will release a new online training program that's incompatible with the bikes they have -- but compatible with the brand-new, $3500 retail Peloton model.
gamblor956 7y ago
It's cheaper than a normal road bike... This past weekend I witnessed hundreds of people compete in a triathlon, each of them riding a bike that probably had tires more expensive than my bike. The top men and women were riding $10,000+ bikes. And they all own multiple $$$ bikes, specialized to the particulars of the course they're racing. A $2000 Peloton that you can train in for recovery or when the weather is bad? That's a bargain by comparison.
- eitally 7y ago
  Those people aren't training using 30-45min spin classes. They're on a resistance trainer using TrainerRoad/Zwift workouts mostly based on time-in-saddle.
- fhbdukfrh 7y ago
  And yet the global market for high end bikes is pretty tiny. There's been huge consolidation of big name brands under private equity as they try to build full range lifestyle portfolios, none of which are big enough to go public independently, yet somehow this niche combining fitness, stationary biking and home subscription has a big enough market for an IPO? Maybe, but I'm skeptical.

by spyspy 7y ago

I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what I see as an expensive niche product.

bstar77 7y ago

You made a pretty inflammatory comment: "the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work". He's just explaining that there is a market. It's probably an enthusiast market as well as wealthy people that can make this an impulse buy, but the opportunity for growth is to convince a much more general market to finance the bike and justify the monthly costs like they do their cable/streaming bills. I understand you didn't want to interview for the job, I get not wanting to work on a product you don't care for... I just think your other comments made little sense and seemed more inflammatory than anything.

spyspy 7y ago
Sorry it wasn't meant to be inflammatory, brevity is hard. But has any fitness fad ever threatened the cable industry? I don't see anyone cancelling their netflix subscription in order to afford this thing. But based on all the responses claiming there's "tons" of market I'm still inclined to disagree. The market seems to just be people already really into cycling (either outdoors or spin classes) and are currently pouring money into those hobbies. Maybe it's a wildly bigger market than I imagine but if I was putting my money on it, and we're talking about an IPO here, I'd say that Peloton's best growth will soon be behind them and they're trying to cash out while they can.
- bstar77 7y ago
  I wasn't suggesting that people cancel netflix or cable, I was just saying that this expense could fall into a similar category. I personally am willing to spend a certain amount of money towards my health each month if it's effective. "The market seems to just be people already really into cycling" This is not true, I see tons of people that are just getting into spin/cycling for the first time. I think the primary customers are people that don't mind using a bike, need to be motivated and have busy lives. We'll see what happens, but I think there's a lot of growth to be had, especially if they try and compete with Tonal.

bitwize 7y ago

Don't worry. Once the bike is a few years old they will release a new online training program that's incompatible with the bikes they have -- but compatible with the brand-new, $3500 retail Peloton model.

gamblor956 7y ago

It's cheaper than a normal road bike... This past weekend I witnessed hundreds of people compete in a triathlon, each of them riding a bike that probably had tires more expensive than my bike. The top men and women were riding $10,000+ bikes. And they all own multiple $$$ bikes, specialized to the particulars of the course they're racing. A $2000 Peloton that you can train in for recovery or when the weather is bad? That's a bargain by comparison.

eitally 7y ago
Those people aren't training using 30-45min spin classes. They're on a resistance trainer using TrainerRoad/Zwift workouts mostly based on time-in-saddle.
fhbdukfrh 7y ago
And yet the global market for high end bikes is pretty tiny. There's been huge consolidation of big name brands under private equity as they try to build full range lifestyle portfolios, none of which are big enough to go public independently, yet somehow this niche combining fitness, stationary biking and home subscription has a big enough market for an IPO? Maybe, but I'm skeptical.