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Another big problem: hypothetical $20,000 electric car with acceptable range doesn't exist yet. The closest thing we have is the Tesla, which costs $100K, carri
by hugh 18y ago
Another big problem: hypothetical $20,000 electric car with acceptable range doesn't exist yet. The closest thing we have is the Tesla, which costs $100K, carries two people, and... well, still doesn't exist yet.
It's no good saying that the price would magically come down immediately if they were produced in sufficient quantities. If anyone had the ability to build a $20,000 long-range four-seat electric car they'd sell millions of 'em anyway.
The technology for cheap and practical electric cars will arrive eventually, but it's probably still a decade away. When you can buy a decent electric car for $20K then people are going to convert anyway, with no need for a huge scary government program forcing them to do so.
- stcredzero 18y agoThere are already $30,000 electric cars with dandy range for commuting. (The Aptera.) These are only two seat, but they would suit my needs just fine. It seems reasonable that this could hit $20,000 if produced in volume. A more realistic goal would be the incremental replacement of internal combustion cars with electric cars. Something like 30% in 10 years would be a tremendous good and would seem possible. I think the ultimate goal should be 85% electric vehicle use. I suspect that there will be a last 15% of uses for which the IC engine will still be the most cost effective solution.
- hugh 18y agoThe Aptera, eh? I hadn't heard of it before, but I looked at their website and they have a "Reserve Now" button combined with a FAQ which says "We are currently in the process of setting up our production facility". I think that moves it out of the "already exists" category and into the "vaporware until proven otherwise" category. Actually you can right now get electric cars from Zap or GEM for less than $20K which are suitable for commuting provided your commute is very short and very slow. I'd be tempted to get one myself if I actually had a garage. But we're nowhere near anything that could be called a replacement for a real car, rather than a supplement to one.
- stcredzero 18y agoThere are real working models, so they are not vaporware. They are instantiated-but-not-yet-coming-off-an-assembly-line-ware. http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4237853.html http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4237853....
- hugh 18y agoWell okay, I'm not sure whether having a working prototype actually makes it officially not-vaporware, but until there's something I can actually buy I remain skeptical about the range and price.
- stcredzero 18y agoRange has been verified, I think. If it hasn't already, the range of the hybrid version will be verified by automotive X-Prize officials.