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Apple were a computing company until they weren’t. Amazon was a bookstore until it expanded into web services of all things. I remember what an eye opener the

Apple were a computing company until they weren’t. Amazon was a bookstore until it expanded into web services of all things. I remember what an eye opener the success of AWS was too everyone on the outside. Google was a search/ad company and yet that hasn’t precluded them from trying any sector to see if something sticks. With the move to walled garden apps which exclude Google from indexing them Google’s share price would’ve tanked if not for Android. Netflix went from shipping DVDs to building a video distribution service and then a studio production arm. Big moves. My point is these companies aren’t afraid to think outside the box. Facebook can do that. But they don’t. They seem comfortable buying other companies instead. What a Facebook pivot would look like I have no idea. Buying Instagram and WhatsApp were strong moves but Facebook itself isn’t making a lot of bet the farm type moves itself - at least not the way in which the other big tech companies are doing.

ethbro 7y ago
That would have been Facebook buying LinkedIn or GitHub. The fact that they ceded both to Microsoft boggles the mind. Facebook looks a lot like Microsoft of the 90s, obsessing over stagnant or slow growing business lines to the exclusion of new opportunities. Whereas Amazon, Google, and Apple (to some degree) seem to realize it's expand or become irrelevant. You can build a world-scale business on one great idea, but every idea isn't great. And a lot of successful companies forget they got a lucky roll on their first idea (by definition). Shotgunning and pruning >> all-in.
- stcredzero 7y ago
  Facebook looks a lot like Microsoft of the 90s, obsessing over stagnant or slow growing business lines to the exclusion of new opportunities. What does Microsoft of 2019 look like? (Don't take it wrong. I just wonder how people think about these things, or what analogies are in common use.)
  - ethbro 7y ago
    I think Microsoft of 2019 looks a lot more like Amazon of 2006? Specifically, recognizing that for large, mature businesses, growth has to be driven by new product types that customers are demanding. And that at that scale nothing starts off "big", but by observing metrics, demand, and properly incubating and then funding launches of internal projects, small popular services can indeed become huge revenue drivers.
- nemothekid 7y ago
  GitHub, no - I don’t see how that would work. But LinkedIn may have fit nicely but it would have been a miracle if that deal was approved.
  - leonroy 7y ago
    Just spitballing, but as Facebook use declines I'd imagine their huge data center resources will become increasingly less utilised. They clearly have some incredible data center engineers (see https://www.opencompute.org/ https://www.opencompute.org/). FB could have made for an interesting AWS competitor. It would've certainly hedged their bets because right now unless Instagram/WhatsApp are utilizing capacity which FB's stalled growth is ceding I see them outsourcing data center operations to another vendor eventually. There's so much potential in FB or was till very recently (Open Compute and React to name two very impressive projects) - I imagine employee retention can only have become harder as the privacy scandals have hit and the share price gains have slowed.
  - ethbro 7y ago
    Here's the case for GitHub: Facebook, as mentioned in parent comments, has essentially tapped out casual social networking as a growth driver. But casual (e.g. your mom and uncle) is the key there. There are many other kinds of social networking: not as large, but large enough to be worth even Facebook's time. Developer networking is absolutely a large and valuable demographic. Facebook has demonstrated competency is compiling and making social graphs useful. Ergo, buying GitHub would allow Facebook to move into a new market while offering new features that GitHub couldn't build on their own. (Note: I'm charting out an "If Facebook decided not to be stupid and just slap ads on GitHub" business case here)

ethbro 7y ago

That would have been Facebook buying LinkedIn or GitHub. The fact that they ceded both to Microsoft boggles the mind. Facebook looks a lot like Microsoft of the 90s, obsessing over stagnant or slow growing business lines to the exclusion of new opportunities. Whereas Amazon, Google, and Apple (to some degree) seem to realize it's expand or become irrelevant. You can build a world-scale business on one great idea, but every idea isn't great. And a lot of successful companies forget they got a lucky roll on their first idea (by definition). Shotgunning and pruning >> all-in.

stcredzero 7y ago
Facebook looks a lot like Microsoft of the 90s, obsessing over stagnant or slow growing business lines to the exclusion of new opportunities. What does Microsoft of 2019 look like? (Don't take it wrong. I just wonder how people think about these things, or what analogies are in common use.)
- ethbro 7y ago
  I think Microsoft of 2019 looks a lot more like Amazon of 2006? Specifically, recognizing that for large, mature businesses, growth has to be driven by new product types that customers are demanding. And that at that scale nothing starts off "big", but by observing metrics, demand, and properly incubating and then funding launches of internal projects, small popular services can indeed become huge revenue drivers.
nemothekid 7y ago
GitHub, no - I don’t see how that would work. But LinkedIn may have fit nicely but it would have been a miracle if that deal was approved.
- leonroy 7y ago
  Just spitballing, but as Facebook use declines I'd imagine their huge data center resources will become increasingly less utilised. They clearly have some incredible data center engineers (see https://www.opencompute.org/ https://www.opencompute.org/). FB could have made for an interesting AWS competitor. It would've certainly hedged their bets because right now unless Instagram/WhatsApp are utilizing capacity which FB's stalled growth is ceding I see them outsourcing data center operations to another vendor eventually. There's so much potential in FB or was till very recently (Open Compute and React to name two very impressive projects) - I imagine employee retention can only have become harder as the privacy scandals have hit and the share price gains have slowed.
- ethbro 7y ago
  Here's the case for GitHub: Facebook, as mentioned in parent comments, has essentially tapped out casual social networking as a growth driver. But casual (e.g. your mom and uncle) is the key there. There are many other kinds of social networking: not as large, but large enough to be worth even Facebook's time. Developer networking is absolutely a large and valuable demographic. Facebook has demonstrated competency is compiling and making social graphs useful. Ergo, buying GitHub would allow Facebook to move into a new market while offering new features that GitHub couldn't build on their own. (Note: I'm charting out an "If Facebook decided not to be stupid and just slap ads on GitHub" business case here)